Stocks and Shares (updated)
  • What do you do if markets fall a further 30%?

    I don't understand whether things are cheap or have now corrected to fair value. Why do you think they are cheap?
  • Cheap is when they've had 10/20/30% of the price knocked off in the last few days/weeks. You could assess value by things like cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio and whatnot, but I don't buy shares in individual companies, preferring trackers and funds. To that end, cheap is when everyone us shitting themselves and panic selling. If they fall 30% tomorrow then I'd remortgage the flat and buy as much as I could.
  • Ah I see. But didn't Japan crash by 75% and then sit there for a decade?
  • It did yes, although it did a mega spike upwards in the previous four years before that. It's a very unusual case in that regard and shows why you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, even if that basket is the index for an entire country.
  • Japan's a basket case?
  • What is the wider societal benefit of people being able to profit from stuff like this?
  • Buying shares when low theoretically puts money into a place when it might be most necessary.

    If you help a farmer or a biscuit maker now you might give them the bump in capital they need to keep going. That's the theory I would say.
  • Fairly sure the biscuit market is saturated.
  • What is the wider societal benefit of people being able to profit from stuff like this?
    Well there's always the brief enjoyment of watching the rich lose billions.
  • Interested in watching how this works out for you.
  • Well it's really just an opportunity to buy during a dip, not unlike last october except bigger. It's the only time I get active these days. 

    As for working out for me it'll not make a great deal of difference except for the cheaper price. I might switch some funds about from time to time but nearly everything I buy is for at least 10 years. Healthcare in America, emerging India etc. If they dip 10% during a correction/wobble/no-reason-at-all, I throw in some of the cash I put away purely for this purpose.
  • acemuzzy
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    I can't remember if this allows us to conclude you're an evil capitalist pig or not
  • Isn't it just predicated on the theory that over time stock always go up?
  • Luther wrote:
    Isn't it just predicated on the theory that over time stock always go up?

    Pretty much, but it's also taking advantage of when they go down. There's always things on the horizon to have in the back of your mind. How much further can oil prices drop? Maybe I'll take a look at Russia next year or maybe not. Iran is also looking tempting. The point is not to buy when everyone else is and be brave when nobody else is, but it's a long game. If you're buying stuff you're selling a year later you're doing it wrong.

  • Do you work in this or is it just an interest?
    [quote=Skerret]Unless someone very obviously insults your loved ones with intent, take nothing here seriously.[/quote]
  • I worked in it briefly and it paid for a flat and enough cash to seriously invest in it for pension pot. Aside from that I do infrequent, shitty jobs that I quite enjoy with zero responsibility.
  • Recent events are doing nothing to change my mind that the people in charge haven't got an actual clue and just behave with herd mentality on any change in the market.

    These are the same experts who didn't see the 2008 crash coming and couldn't spot the problems in the Chinese market either until it all went to plop, at which point instead of allowing the market to correct, the Chinese gov step to help artificially stabilise things.

    How is this even a system in the 21st century that people think is a suitable means of investment for the worlds pension funds and other huge sums of cash?
    There can be no rebirth without a dark night of the soul, a total annihilation of all that you believed in and thought that you were. Inayat Khan
  • The Chinese govt intervention is weird as isn't the whole economy in China based on heavy handed govt involvement?

    It's like the govt got them to the point where the shares and shit are worth something but when it goes wrong the market should then 'fix' it.


  • The Chinese stock market doesn't even matter to the chinese economy though that much i thought. isn't it all retail investment pretty much? It only reopened in 1990 or something.

    So yeah it is weird, why do china care?

    What was weird was a guy coming on radio4 saying the entire western recovery post 2008 was on the back of the Chinese economic growth figures and subsequent investment into the stock market over there. Tragically, its probably true.
    There can be no rebirth without a dark night of the soul, a total annihilation of all that you believed in and thought that you were. Inayat Khan
  • davyK
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    Roujin wrote:
    Recent events are doing nothing to change my mind that the people in charge haven't got an actual clue and just behave with herd mentality on any change in the market. These are the same experts who didn't see the 2008 crash coming and couldn't spot the problems in the Chinese market either until it all went to plop, at which point instead of allowing the market to correct, the Chinese gov step to help artificially stabilise things. How is this even a system in the 21st century that people think is a suitable means of investment for the worlds pension funds and other huge sums of cash?

    Aye. Never thought that the quotes about paying top dollar and bonuses to keep the talent in the UK held much water. That's the same "talent" that behaved like greedy sheep and gambled away all our money you mean? We could do without that - they can fuck off. 

    Like any industry there's a small percentage that knows what it's doing and it depends if they are made up of self serving greedy pricks or those who believe that the wealthy have a duty to maintain a decent way of life in the wider community in general.
  • acemuzzy wrote:
    I can't remember if this allows us to conclude you're an evil capitalist pig or not
    Well I certainly take advantage of capitalism, but mainly it's taking advantage of other people's greed and stupidity. Shares are only worth what somebody is prepared to pay for them. If I make money that means someone doing the same as me has lost money. The idea is to buy low and sell high. That's really all there is to it. What's mental is the money you can make from a company without lifting a finger when the people grafting are earning minimum wage. The solution is to properly tax the rich but it needs an international effort which is frankly never going to happen.
  • Come the revolution you'll be first against the wall.

    I'll probably be somewhere in the queue behind you like.
  • Basically yes. QE money sloshing around has to go somewhere, and it will end up in equities.

    Didn't the Dax jump on talk of more QE from Dragi lately?
  • Bollockoff
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    When do we money?
  • Escape
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    I have no money, but when I do, you're all to tell me something you do know about...

  • WorKid wrote:
    Basically yes. QE money sloshing around has to go somewhere, and it will end up in equities.

    Didn't the Dax jump on talk of more QE from Dragi lately?

    Possibly, but all the talk of QE is overrated imho. Sure it's helped established markets come out of the recession, but only a fool would ignore India over the next decade.
  • Well India did pretty well last year despite the naysayers, and should continue doing so over the next five years or so. For those who are curious I'd still recommend the Jupiter India fund - 12.69% last year building on from the 50% the year before. Remember you won't really know anything about the subject until you stick some money in and learn as you go. Cavendish still a good cheap place to start. 

    It's good to set up a new current account for this purpose (it's this account you'll use exclusively when you set up bank details with your fund provider), so best to go for one with the best interest rates on small amounts. I think Jupiter India has a minimum investment of £500, and from there the best route is to transfer a set amount per month into the new current account and let it build up until there's a significant dip in the markets, and then throw the lot in. Keep up the monthly transfers and let it build again in the current account until the next dip and transfer it all into the fund until the next dip, and so on.
  • GooberTheHat
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    Cheers SG. I need to get on this this year.  Do you have any thoughts on Nigeria.  It is predicted to be the third most populous country in the world in 2050 (I think).  Any idea if it is likely to have a market boom to go along with it?

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