Brexit: Go Hard Or Go Home
  • Double counting Greens doesn't help your argument.

    Also I think you are (deliberately?) missing his main point, which is that dismissing the views of lots of people will not lead to happy land.
  • The problem with pro eu folk is that they paint the UK as completely fucked out of the EU. It seems ludicrous to me that Britain in or out the eu couldn't be a functioning nation. It's a level of scaremongering that will only harden people already on the out side and question the rationality of those on the in side.

    The concept that the Britain needs the eu because its trade goes mostly there is based on ignoring the fact that it's most easy to trade to the eu and more difficult to trade out of because we are in the eu.

    the idea that the only way a country can exist via a mechanism of capital movement, and being repeatedly told this and the status quo should remain for ever should ring alarm bells to anyone who says it. It's precisely the kind of shit that leads to accepting pain with no questions. The messages arrive from the same place.

    The fact is the best reason to stay in the eu is that it subsidises poor nations and richer nations into a groove of more comfortableness. It' makes the whole area less prone to war which Imo is reason enough.
  • Yossarian wrote:
    djchump wrote:
    Funkstain wrote:
    ... does a love for Premier League football and extremely expensive niche cars (owned by an Indian conglomerate...) translate into multi-billion pound long term trade deals? ...
    There's only so much tweed a country can buy. The textiles would probably be made in China, shipped to sweatshops in Indonesia, shipped back to distributors in China, shipped to warehouses in the UK, then sold back to Chinese Anglophiles at several thousand % markup. Not hard to see where some middlemen can get cut out of that loop.

    Quite. Besides which, the primary reason for signing trade deals (aside from maybe ones which only cover a specific class of product) is to give those things that you produce a better chance to compete against a country's own products, not to make that country's products cheaper for consumers in your own country. China have no need to do this as their manufacturing sector is already dominant across the world.

    China's manufacturing sector is stalling, and has been stalking for years. Since the global economic downturn China has invested massively in, and been encouraging, domestic expenditure as a way of topping up the economy.

    The idea that China's economy is based only on exports in information that is half a decade old at least.

    Imports are good for them at the moment due to the value of the Yuan changing. When I arrived in China it was 15 rmb to the pound, now it's closer to 9. This gives them greater buying power, but hurts their exports.
    Yossarian wrote:
    If China thought trade deals were in their interest, why aren't we negotiating one as part of the EU?

    Well, we have. The Tariff on Textiles (which was actually quite a big one) was dropped, for example, years ago now.
  • Yes to Crayon. I would add however that there is more subtlety to the argument made by that article posted on the previous page. It doesn't say: "we'd be fucked outside of the EU from a trade perspective". It says: "We'd be worse off outside of the EU from a trade perspective".

    It says that on that basis the author will vote to stay in the EU. It doesn't say the UK cannot function with the EU, it doesn't make any points about other reasons to leave the EU.
  • FTR though, I will say I applaud Cinty's liberalism and empathy here ;-)

    Also FTR, I don't look down on working class oiks or Daily Mail readers, I just think it's a shame that the media circus lay the blame for the shitsandwich that the working (and soon middle) classes are having to eat at the feet of others in similarly crappy situation (e.g. migrants who are fleeing a warzone triple-decker shitsandwich that the Western powers were very much complicit in crafting and serving up) rather than at the feet of the people who are actually fucking things up for everyone else for their own personal gain.

    But fuck UKIP voters. I totally look down on them. My horse is super-high.


    (PS Also, also FTR, apparently it's the oldies that seem to be doing quite well out of the shafting of Generation Y, so they also get some of my sneering)
  • Britons should stay because it would be boring without you guys!
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  • Yossarian
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    Funkstain wrote:
    Double counting Greens doesn't help your argument.

    Also I think you are (deliberately?) missing his main point, which is that dismissing the views of lots of people will not lead to happy land.

    I saw that, I just had nothing to add to it. I agree that it's a bad thing, and um, yes.

    And my general argument is that there are more left-wingers than right in the country, whichever party they vote for. I recall reading a stat a while back that left-wing parties tended to outpoll right-wing ones in general elections, but the left-wing vote was more fragmented. Haven't looked into how this idea holds up now, but the last election may have shaken things, perhaps.
  • GooberTheHat
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    Funk, which article are you looking for a rebuttal of?
  • I'm in Turkey for work right now. West Coast. It's awfully depressing. There are police boats and jet skis every morning searching for refugee bodies. The main municipal park is a makeshift refugee camp. There are starving and begging children everywhere. The city continues around all of this.

    As a block, the EU is currently negotiating terms with Turkey on how to deal with this utter disregard for human life. I fear that if were outside of the EU we would abrogate every responsibility (even more than we already have) to these people. The fact that the EU forces us, against our worse natures, to deal with this even in some small way, is enough to make me vote to stay in. Fuck economics it doesn't do these starving kids any good it seems.
  • From a mate's Facebook feed
    In laymans terms: "But Germany, France and Italy won't stop buying things from the UK if we leave" say the brexiteers, they NEED us, and they won't put us into a tariff regime, so says the Leave EU camp. It won't be a choice, it's not a case of the EU damaging their imports to be spiteful to a UK that just voted to leave the EU. The fact is that there exists a document called the Treaty of the European Union and it sets out the very foundation of how the 28 member states work and cooperate together. It was part written by the UK and part drafted by UK lawyers. It was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create a 'thing' called the "EU Common External Tariff Regime" for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs are in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU doesn't desperately need and lower for the things it does need desperately like energy for example - which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norways exports to the EU is oil and gas. When we tear up our membership card, Article 50 of the Treaty I mentioned comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU we are leaving the club all our agreements terminate 24 months after notification. When this happens (potentially summer 2018) we are automatically under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to. The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty. It just isn't feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit. Meanwhile we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. This could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide). The point is that the UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO guidelines) is automatic if we elect to Leave and there is nothing that Germany, France or Spain or even the UK can do about it. Currently we enjoy unlimited trade with the largest trading bloc on the planet free from duties, tariffs or quota and that is my main reason for voting to stay IN the EU. It's also worth noting that of all the top ten economies in the world every single one of them with a population of less than one billion people is a member of a continental trade bloc like the EU. Do we really think we are powerful enough to buck the trend of global trade and international economics? I think not. We are pretty good, but not *that* good.

    That one. But like I said I've gone off economics right now (yes yes I Know that it is intimately related to how we deal with refugees, what their prospects are etc it just seems so far removed from the daily nightmare reality of fishing kids' corpses out of the water whilst we enjoy a morning coffee).
  • Yossarian
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    Yossarian wrote:
    djchump wrote:
    Funkstain wrote:
    ... does a love for Premier League football and extremely expensive niche cars (owned by an Indian conglomerate...) translate into multi-billion pound long term trade deals? ...
    There's only so much tweed a country can buy. The textiles would probably be made in China, shipped to sweatshops in Indonesia, shipped back to distributors in China, shipped to warehouses in the UK, then sold back to Chinese Anglophiles at several thousand % markup. Not hard to see where some middlemen can get cut out of that loop.

    Quite. Besides which, the primary reason for signing trade deals (aside from maybe ones which only cover a specific class of product) is to give those things that you produce a better chance to compete against a country's own products, not to make that country's products cheaper for consumers in your own country. China have no need to do this as their manufacturing sector is already dominant across the world.

    China's manufacturing sector is stalling, and has been stalking for years. Since the global economic downturn China has invested massively in, and been encouraging, domestic expenditure as a way of topping up the economy.

    The idea that China's economy is based only on exports in information that is half a decade old at least.

    Imports are good for them at the moment due to the value of the Yuan changing. When I arrived in China it was 15 rmb to the pound, now it's closer to 9. This gives them greater buying power, but hurts their exports.

    That's not my argument at all, my argument is that Chinese exports don't need boosting because they are aleast dominant. Making them slightly cheaper by the removal of tariffs isn't going to make them more competitive, as they're already outcompeting everywhere else in the world. It has nothing whatsoever to do with what China's economy is or isn't based on.

    And again, the primary reason for signing general trade deals (not necessarily on specific products) has nothing to do with making goods cheaper for citizens, that will barely be a consideration.
    Yossarian wrote:
    If China thought trade deals were in their interest, why aren't we negotiating one as part of the EU?

    Well, we have. The Tariff on Textiles (which was actually quite a big one) was dropped, for example, years ago now.
    [/quote]As I say, tariffs on specific classes of products are distinct from general trade deals and could be signed for a number of reasons.
  • Funkstain wrote:
    .... But like I said I've gone off economics right now (yes yes I Know that it is intimately related to how we deal with refugees, what their prospects are etc it just seems so far removed from the daily nightmare reality of fishing kids' corpses out of the water whilst we enjoy a morning coffee).
    I figure if we can afford to pay for the bombs that fuck a country up, we can easily afford to pay for the food and housing and shelter for the refugees fleeing the fuckedness, cos bombs are hella expensive.
  • Cinty, it's generally their arguments that paint them as unknowing economically cavalier racists. Apparantly all of Turkey is about to move to Lincolnshire when they get EU membership in the next few months.

    Except it's most likely decades, and just because they can move here doesn't mean they will.

    And "they" are? Daily Mail readers?
    Tory voters?
    UKIP voters?
    Old people?
    The working class?
    Who?

    Because all of the above outdo Labour, The Greens and The Guardian (in terms of votes and readership) by quite some margin. "They" represent the UK better than we do, it seems, as painful as it is to admit. So if we want our county to be less shit in future we should probably stop hoping they magically disappear, because it's not gonna happen. Dismissing and patronising entire swaths of the country as deluded, idiotic racists (once again, as if the people here are all knowledgable on the details of international economics and immigration) is dumb as fuck.

    "They" would be Brexiters (#NotAllBrexiters), you know the people who you mentioned in the post that I pulled that from. I thought that would have been blindingly obvious, but apparently not.
  • GooberTheHat
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    @ Funk.

    Thanks. 

    I can imagine that's not a particularly pleasant experience.  It's a shame that the most common response to scenes like that though is to say "yeah, but we can't take everyone in. Other countries should do more." And some how that absolves us of any responsibility.
  • Other countries do so much more it's shockingly embarrassing. Germany are taking in millions, and much of their media is remains broadly supportive, whilst acknowledging the pressures and the tolls.

    If other EU countries did even a tenth of what Germany are doing there would be no "refugee problem".
  • Yossarian
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    hunk wrote:
    Britons should stay because it would be boring without you guys!

    Where are you / from?
  • @ Funk. Thanks.  I can imagine that's not a particularly pleasant experience.  It's a shame that the most common response to scenes like that though is to say "yeah, but we can't take everyone in. Other countries should do more." And some how that absolves us of any responsibility.

    Especially since we aren't taking anyone in comparatively. Other countries are already doing much, much more than us.
  • Funkstain wrote:
    Other countries do so much more it's shockingly embarrassing. Germany are taking in millions, and much of their media is remains broadly supportive, whilst acknowledging the pressures and the tolls. If other EU countries did even a tenth of what Germany are doing there would be no "refugee problem".

    Canada has taken three times as many refugees from Syria as us. Fucking Canada. Brazil has approved more than we have had applications.
  • Canada?! Ahahaha, we should be fucking ashamed of ourselves. 
    But we aren't, because those immigrants only want to come over here to scrounge the dole and take all our jobs and overburden our NHS and work as nurses in our NHS and ogle our women.
  • Yossarian wrote:
    Funkstain wrote:
    Double counting Greens doesn't help your argument.

    Also I think you are (deliberately?) missing his main point, which is that dismissing the views of lots of people will not lead to happy land.

    I saw that, I just had nothing to add to it. I agree that it's a bad thing, and um, yes.

    And my general argument is that there are more left-wingers than right in the country, whichever party they vote for. I recall reading a stat a while back that left-wing parties tended to outpoll right-wing ones in general elections, but the left-wing vote was more fragmented. Haven't looked into how this idea holds up now, but the last election may have shaken things, perhaps.

    Even if that were true, it's not a reason to dismiss an entire group. But, as it is, the last election results read as follows:

    Labour + SNP + Lib Dem + Green = 46.8% of the popular vote. And that's me being kind - I included the Lib Dems even though they were a coalition partner in an austerity government.

    Conservatives + UKIP = 49.4%

    The remainder I can only find as classified under "other" sorry - that's usually single-issue parties or local upstarts.

    Still, like it or not, we (and I include myself on the left) are outnumbered. Let's not dismiss 49.4% of the country as racist idiots.
    It's a level of scaremongering that will only harden people already on the out side and question the rationality of those on the in side.

    100 times this. If (and I don't think it will happen) but IF the UK votes to leave, I don't want anyone here complaining how it was the other side's fault for being idiotic racists.

    People across the world are getting pissed with the status quo and being talked down to, and too many people here would rather sneer and be "right" than engage people they look down on.
    Yossarian wrote:
    That's not my argument at all, my argument is that Chinese exports don't need boosting because they are aleast dominant. Making them slightly cheaper by the removal of tariffs isn't going to make them more competitive, as they're already outcompeting everywhere else in the world. It has nothing whatsoever to do with what China's economy is or isn't based on.

    Sorry man, I have to disagree with you here strongly.

    The fact that China is number 1 so it doesn't need to improve is kinda weird. China needs to get a boost to domestic commercial spending (as in, shopping) as well is to its general GDP and, if possible, manufacturing.

    You see, in China the magic number is 7%. In order to continue to develop at the speed it has been, and to continue to improve the standard of living for its citizens (to prevent social unrest among other things) it needs to grow its economy at a rate of 7%.

    Now that may seem mental to us, with our 0.5% or 1% being a good year, but that's the nature of a developing economy versus a developed one.

    This year? This was the first time that China finally dropped BELOW that number. Trust me, China will be watching this. It's not nothing to them.

    Now, please, I need to state some things:

    I do not think the UK will be better out of the EU.
    I do not think any hypothetical deal with China will make up for the loss of what we already have.
    I don't think we will have a stronger negotiating position as a lone nation.

    I just don't want to dismiss the other side as complete idiots who know nothing and are voting out of hate for foreigners and who know nothing.
    Cinty, it's generally their arguments that paint them as unknowing economically cavalier racists. Apparantly all of Turkey is about to move to Lincolnshire when they get EU membership in the next few months.

    Except it's most likely decades, and just because they can move here doesn't mean they will.

    And "they" are? Daily Mail readers?
    Tory voters?
    UKIP voters?
    Old people?
    The working class?
    Who?

    Because all of the above outdo Labour, The Greens and The Guardian (in terms of votes and readership) by quite some margin. "They" represent the UK better than we do, it seems, as painful as it is to admit. So if we want our county to be less shit in future we should probably stop hoping they magically disappear, because it's not gonna happen. Dismissing and patronising entire swaths of the country as deluded, idiotic racists (once again, as if the people here are all knowledgable on the details of international economics and immigration) is dumb as fuck.

    "They" would be Brexiters (#NotAllBrexiters), you know the people who you mentioned in the post that I pulled that from. I thought that would have been blindingly obvious, but apparently not.

    It wasn't blindly obvious to me. Sorry.

    I'm not sure your clarification makes it much better. That kind of attitude makes me want to spite vote.

    As I wrote above, if you lose the vote, it'll be the "Stay" camp's fault, no one else's.
  • "Spite vote" kinda sums up brexit, IMHO.
  • And what attitude is that precisely? When it comes to Turkey's potential membership of the EU, it's the Brexit side that is Project Fear, spreading misinformation and outright lies
  • djchump wrote:
    "Spite vote" kinda sums up brexit, IMHO.

    ...Jesus...

    I'm fucking done with this thread, it's not good for me.

    Enjoy yourself lads - feel free to continue to find articles about topics you know nothing about but that support your viewpoint so that you can repost and nod in agreement about them, knowing you're all completely right and there's no reasonable way any not-idiotic human could disagree with you.
  • Yossarian
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    Is there anyone seriously taking that attitude in here?
  • /shrug

    Cinty thinks he's better than me. He's probably right though, I'm awful.
  • I think it's right to be open-minded about this but once you've examined the pros and cons and found one side of the argument to be a lightweight, barely thought through load of nonsense, then what? Do you shut up about it on the internet because other people are still in the open-minded, fact-finding phase?

    Of course, summing up half the country as misguided, uninformed or racist is a sweeping, inaccurate generalisation. But it's possible for a majority of people to be completely and utterly wrong about something. So why not this?
  • Yossarian wrote:
    hunk wrote:
    Britons should stay because it would be boring without you guys!
    Where are you / from?

    Dutchie.
    Someone's gotta keep us in check no?
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  • To be fair though, it's very hard to disentangle my view from the knowledge of why we're getting this referendum. Not because there's some big issue, or some substantive change to our relationship. It's because a powerful group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs made it clear that David Cameron's continued occupancy of number 10 was contingent on him providing the promise of a referendum. Cameron obliged believing he'd never have to go through with it, and that it would curtail UKIP defections from both his own MPs and Tory voters. And now here we are. All putting serious thought into a question that doesn't need asking because two powerful sub-groupings of Tories are playing a weird game of chess for the leadership of their party.
  • In fairness to the tories they were clearly worried about losing their jobs to UKIP mps because their parties pro eu stance did not mirror their constituents'
  • for what it's worth i'm enjoying the debate here.
    Today is the shadow of tomorrow.

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