Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers - The Bear and Badger

Yossarian

EXC: Theresa May leaves diplomats in 'disbelief' after presenting EU leaders with unchanged Brexit demands

My latest. Really. Nothing has changed. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/

There really is something wrong with that woman.

WorKid

I do think she's had a breakdown.

Diluted Dante

No, shes too strong and stable for that.

SpaceGazelle

Unlikely wrote:

Politics live blog.

Ta.

WorKid

Johnson says, if we had ham, we would have ham.

LivDiv

A general election is absolutely not what this country needs right now.
Brexit is a cross party issue. Voting for either of the two major parties doesn't give mandate for any brexit resolution.
The SNP, Libs, Ukip and Greens all have a United stance within their parties so a vote for them is a vote for a certain outcome.
The same can't be said of Lab or Con.

I'll have no part of it. I'll spoil my paper.

LivDiv

This bomb in Lodonderry should be a reminder to our "prime" minister that playing fast and loose with the Irish border cannot be tolerated.

Facewon

http://theconversation.com/whats-the-deal-or-no-deal-with-brexit-heres-everything-explained-110024

Been well out of the loop on this.

This seems a good summary.

The irish angle seems a big mess of a problem.

Diluted Dante

Can you explain that to Brexiters please Face?

monkey

That article is intentionally quite neutral. So the thing missing is the scale of incompetence, dishonesty and cowardice that has brought us to this point. Legitimate objections and questions to May’s approach have been waived away, she’s made all the decisions herself, or been forced into them by the EU. And now we’re in a place where no one likes what’s been decided. The only thing May’s withdrawal agreement has going for it is that it might avoid the fallout that would result from not doing it.

Facewon

Yeah. Tbh, that's why I like the convo. They do a good job of neutral. There's a link to academics discussing the white paper in there though. That's not so neutral.

RedDave2

I think its worth being aware that while you might think it is only your government that is ill prepared for brexit and that all of the EU stuff is ready for it, the fact isnt quite so clear. I can only speak for Ireland but as Kneecap alluded to, brexit has been a safety net for a government that overall is failing in key areas. And their brexit position isn't as well prepared as the front line country involved should be.

A few of us here, myself included, think that while overall Vradkar has struck the correct tone in this, he hasn't pushed the EU for nearly enough backing in the event of no deal or even very hard brexit. Some of us thought that maybe cards were just being held very close to the chest but it's looking like there was a worry that to prepare for no deal with be seen to be advocating no deal (and specifically relating to a border with the north). And while I can understand that, the fact is that is playing politics over pragmatism and a failure to prepare could lead to the obvious prepare to fail. 2 ministers have been caught speaking on mics about not wanting to be seen to be the party that put a barrier back on the border, and I can understand the sentiment but it still might be something that has to be done.

hunk

Heh, Brexit is a lot like "the Ring" in Tolkien's Lord of the rings. The precious.....

pantyfire

I just want it to all be over, I'm so tired.

RedDave2

pantyfire wrote:

I just want it to all be over, I'm so tired.

Well the good news is, no matter what is chosen, we're probably talking of at least 5 years to sort this. Probably more like a decade. Or longer.

Fuck.

RamSteelwood

this is an older article, but lists 9 things that would happen on a 'no deal'.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/07/9-things-will-happen-no-deal-brexit-day

the bit about nuclear power is interesting.

I'm still looking for, if anyone can find something fair and reputable, a sort of definite "This is what will happen at midnight on no deal" type thing. I get obviously that overall it's a very bad thing, but i'm still not really clear on exactly what things will immediately be affected, in a simple/short 'arguing with someone down the pub' response way.

poprock

I guess a useful ‘warning guide’ would be a timeline. These things happen at midnight, these things are likely to happen after a week, these things after a month, etc. An overview of the knock-on effects we can expect after No Deal Day.

RamSteelwood

Yeah. the thing in my head at the moment is electricity...I believe Britain imports a large portion of the electricity we use, which I assume comes via Europe (and in an added complication, I think Ireland gets it's 'extra' electricity through the UK?).
so 'at midnight', do they turn off that supply in a no deal? Does it instantly become 10% more expensive cos of WTO tariffs? will it carry on as normal and brexiteers will just be "see? it was just project fear" (at least until electricity bills increase later in the year and they blame the EU)

monkey

I suppose that there's no real precedent for it which makes that difficult. And there isn't a single no deal. If 'no deal' was happening now, loads of stuff could be arranged to carry things over for a short period. If the process collapses 24 hours before, it's chaos.

RamSteelwood

Yossarian wrote:

Have some polling on possible outcomes. Or ignore it, it’s up to you. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/01/14/mps-prepare-brexit-vote-where-do-britons-stand

This bit is the most grim reading from this, and show how we're pretty much fucked whichever outcome now:

In sobering summary, none of the options are viewed positively by more people than negatively. None of them are viewed by a majority as delivering on the referendum by a majority. And every outcome is seen as more likely to further divide the UK than unite it.

monkey

There's a huge chunk of soft Leavers or not that bothered Remainers that, being totally fair, believe the result of the referendum should be honoured. Support for Leaving was about 70-80% in the year after the referendum, based on large part from that opinion.

IF you could get to a 2nd referendum that was seen as democratically legitimate, then I think Remain wins. It ends Brexit (which people are sick of) and Leave can't get away with the same 'all things to all people' stuff they tried before. Because they've ruled out so many soft options now.

Anyway, that IF isn't just a big IF, it's virtually impossible.

LivDiv

It is astonishing how many people in the public back no deal.

Still, I'm absolutely convinced it won't happen.
If May puts her deal to a vote again at midnight on the final day it will go through. It is a better deal than no deal for all but the ERG nutters.
Its safe to assume at the cliff edge supporters of remain or an alternate deal will either vote for it or abstain.

Diluted Dante

So fuck it, 2nd referendum!

The problem with defining 'No Deal' is that No Deal Doesn't really exist. There won't be a withdrawal agreement, but some small deals will be done to ensure for example, planes can fly between the EU and UK.

Diluted Dante

LivDiv wrote:

It is astonishing how many people in the public back no deal. Still, I'm absolutely convinced it won't happen. If May puts her deal to a vote again at midnight on the final day it will go through. It is a better deal than no deal for all but the ERG nutters. Its safe to assume at the cliff edge supporters of remain or an alternate deal will either vote for it or abstain.

11pm on March 29th is when we exit, so May calling a vote an hour later sounds about right.

LivDiv

Haha.
Yeah bang on.

RamSteelwood

monkey wrote:

If 'no deal' was happening now, loads of stuff could be arranged to carry things over for a short period.

This is kind of my point. It's not really no deal if you have a bunch of side arrangements covering various things. To my mind, the concept of a genuine 'no deal' is too implausible to comprehend, which is why it would be handy to have some actual 'this is what would actually happen if no deal' type facts to respond to the "we should just leave now with no deal, we're GREAT Britain, we'll be fine" chat.

Actually, maybe the secret to solve Brexit is to announce a 'no deal' right now.
"Screw you Europe, we're leaving with no deal, we'll do our own thing now!"
Government then sets about negotiating new totally un-brexit related deals in a way that they've always done (ie. outside the interest of the general public)...like sign up to various separate EU agencies for security/electricity, yadda yadda. start working on a new EU trade deal, with a temporary measure of being exactly like the customs union.

Basically, make a big show of tearing up the one big mega deal that covers 100 things....wait a week, then quietly sign up to 100 separate 'agreements' (not deals!).

Yossarian

Leave doesn’t really exist either, it means different things to different people and the leave campaign was run in such a way as to use that ambiguity to its advantage. This is part of the reason we’re fucked now, because every deal that’s suggested means disappointing some of those who voted leave for different reasons than those whose wishes are being fulfilled. Every deal explodes on contact with reality because it exposes those contradictions.

LivDiv

Problem is these things tend to take a good while to negotiate and implement.
Even if they walk in the room, nod heads and walk back out again you've still got legal wrangling and paperwork to do.

Question is can we go that long with the food that is stockpiled?
Given that the country shat itself when Marmite went up a few pence all signs point to no.

poprock

RamSteelwood wrote:

To my mind, the concept of a genuine 'no deal' is too implausible to comprehend, which is why it would be handy to have some actual 'this is what would actually happen if no deal' type facts to respond to the "we should just leave now with no deal, we're GREAT Britain, we'll be fine" chat.

Okay. I’m far from sure about any of this, but here’s what I can pick up from skim-reading a few pieces from analysts who specialise in the EU/UK relationship.

First off, private enterprise can cover a lot of things the Government currently handles. I’m going to describe a genuine no deal scenario … whereas in reality a lot of things will be patched up by individual private companies making small deals to paper over the cracks left by having no ‘default’ UK-wide deal on their business sector.

But … try this:

Flights to EU nations could be grounded – but individual airlines will probably negotiate their own permissions to fly. So expect less flights at best, no flights at worst.

Roads will be gridlocked the further south in the UK you go – but that can quickly knock-on and spread to the whole UK.

UK driving licenses will no longer be valid in Europe – you’ll need to apply for an International Driving Permit.

Prices of everything will rise straight away – food will be the first thing you notice, but tariffs on trade because of not being an EU member will mean literally everything gets more expensive. Petrol and diesel prices will go through the roof.

That includes medicines, which will rise in price a LOT. As well as trade tariffs, there will be licensing costs on every ingredient – because it’s currently the EU that controls licensing for trade in controlled substances. So even medicines made in the UK would be spending more on permission to manufacture as well as more on material costs.

The military are planning ahead for delivery of medicines to hospitals being their job – because nobody else will be able to get through. Gridlock, y’see?

UK subjects living abroad in the EU may not have permission to work or earn. Or even stay beyond the length of a tourist visa. That will be at the discretion of each individual country. Even if they can, any qualifications they hold may no longer be accepted where they are. Doctors might not be able to legally practice, etc.

Uk citizens immediately lose their right to use mobile phones without roaming charges. So international phone calls skyrocket in cost.

Energy prices will go sky-high. A decent proportion of the UK’s energy comes from nuclear power. The nuclear power plants will switch off overnight because we will no longer have the necessary international permissions to operate them. This will lead to ‘planned’ power outages across the whole UK. Theoretically, in a worst-case scenario, we could quickly end up on a three-day working week to manage energy use. (We will be able to switch the nuclear plants back on, but qualifying for – and paying for – the necessary permissions will take months.)

Transport difficulties will have knock-on effects on availability and price of everything. And then on maintenance and on services. Food and medicine prices rise even higher because of shortages. Bins don’t get emptied. Streets don’t get cleaned. Bodies stack up at hospitals and mortuaries. Disease spreads. People can’t get to work – and that includes really important people like doctors, teachers, etc. Services dwindle and halt because there are no staff to run them.

Crime will rise. Shortages of food etc will lead to petty crime immediately. The Police will will face transport difficulties due to gridlock and crime, again, will rise. Ambulances won’t get through and people will die. Hospitals will be short of staff and people will die.

Amazon have already announced that they are preparing contingency plans to continue deliveries during periods of ‘civil unrest’. Which shows, in black and white, that big businesses are expecting riots, and trying to plan ahead.

Dover and Belfast are planning locally for ‘intermittent riots’ due to the gridlock and the stupid fucking border respectively. Expect those to get completely out of hand if the Police/military can’t even get there to help. Again, people will die.

The financial markets are a huge unknown, but most likely the Pound will nosedive, because a country in the chaos described above is not a safe place to invest. Once again, this means everything, absolutely everything, gets more expensive for us to buy. When people can’t afford food, crime will rise. And remember the Police will be short staffed and facing travel difficulties.

RamSteelwood

poprock wrote:

RamSteelwood wrote:

To my mind, the concept of a genuine 'no deal' is too implausible to comprehend, which is why it would be handy to have some actual 'this is what would actually happen if no deal' type facts to respond to the "we should just leave now with no deal, we're GREAT Britain, we'll be fine" chat.

Okay. I’m far from sure about any of this, but here’s what I can pick up from skim-reading a few pieces from analysts who specialise in the EU/UK relationship. First off, private enterprise can cover a lot of things the Government currently handles. I’m going to describe a genuine no deal scenario … whereas in reality a lot of things will be patched up by individual private companies making small deals to paper over the cracks left by having no ‘default’ UK-wide deal on their business sector. But … try this: Flights to EU nations could be grounded – but individual airlines will probably negotiate their own permissions to fly. So expect less flights at best, no flights at worst. Roads will be gridlocked the further south in the UK you go – but that can quickly knock-on and spread to the whole UK. UK driving licenses will no longer be valid in Europe – you’ll need to apply for an International Driving Permit. Prices of everything will rise straight away – food will be the first thing you notice, but tariffs on trade because of not being an EU member will mean literally everything gets more expensive. Petrol and diesel prices will go through the roof. That includes medicines, which will rise in price a LOT. As well as trade tariffs, there will be licensing costs on every ingredient – because it’s currently the EU that controls licensing for trade in controlled substances. So even medicines made in the UK would be spending more on permission to manufacture as well as more on material costs. The military are planning ahead for delivery of medicines to hospitals being their job – because nobody else will be able to get through. Gridlock, y’see? UK subjects living abroad in the EU may not have permission to work or earn. Or even stay beyond the length of a tourist visa. That will be at the discretion of each individual country. Even if they can, any qualifications they hold may no longer be accepted where they are. Doctors might not be able to legally practice, etc. Uk citizens immediately lose their right to use mobile phones without roaming charges. So international phone calls skyrocket in cost. Energy prices will go sky-high. A decent proportion of the UK’s energy comes from nuclear power. The nuclear power plants will switch off overnight because we will no longer have the necessary international permissions to operate them. This will lead to ‘planned’ power outages across the whole UK. Theoretically, in a worst-case scenario, we could quickly end up on a three-day working week to manage energy use. (We will be able to switch the nuclear plants back on, but qualifying for – and paying for – the necessary permissions will take months.) Transport difficulties will have knock-on effects on availability and price of everything. And then on maintenance and on services. Food and medicine prices rise even higher because of shortages. Bins don’t get emptied. Streets don’t get cleaned. Bodies stack up at hospitals and mortuaries. Disease spreads. People can’t get to work – and that includes really important people like doctors, teachers, etc. Services dwindle and halt because there are no staff to run them. Crime will rise. Shortages of food etc will lead to petty crime immediately. The Police will will face transport difficulties due to gridlock and crime, again, will rise. Ambulances won’t get through and people will die. Hospitals will be short of staff and people will die. Amazon have already announced that they are preparing contingency plans to continue deliveries during periods of ‘civil unrest’. Which shows, in black and white, that big businesses are expecting riots, and trying to plan ahead. Dover and Belfast are planning locally for ‘intermittent riots’ due to the gridlock and the stupid fucking border respectively. Expect those to get completely out of hand if the Police/military can’t even get there to help. Again, people will die. The financial markets are a huge unknown, but most likely the Pound will nosedive, because a country in the chaos described above is not a safe place to invest. Once again, this means everything, absolutely everything, gets more expensive for us to buy. When people can’t afford food, crime will rise. And remember the Police will be short staffed and facing travel difficulties.

Yeah, but poprock, we won at Waterloo and 200 years ago had an Empire that covered half the world.

Cheers Pop, for the info, and the nightmare fuel!

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