The robots are coming. Restructure the economy. Go.
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Driverless cars will be allowed on British roads in Jan 2015. Taxi and HGV drivers will be replaced. Car ownership will decline meaning less jobs in manufacture, distribution, sales and maintenance. Fewer parking spaces and petrol stations will be needed.
How is our economy going to work when robots are doing all the jobs?"..the pseudo-Left new style.." -
Based on what we've seen so far, I'd imagine a tiny number of people with vast sums of money living in gated communities with armed robot guards while the rest of us scrabble around in the dirt searching for rats to barbecue. -
It is won't matter as the robots will kill all humans.
iosGameCentre:T3hDaddy;
XBL: MistaTeaTime -
It will be a long, long time before people stop driving their own cars by any meaningful amount. Which is entirely irrelevant to your question.
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I've posted to this before, but this is a fucking nightmare scenario.
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Flight Of The Conchords - The Humans Are Dead: http://youtu.be/WGoi1MSGu64 -
I don't think it will. Most of the people I work with travel for an hour per work day. Most of the managers I've worked with are doing over two. If they could watch an episode of Quincy on the way to work and spend an hour on Facebook on the way home, while paying less insurance, I think that's gonna catch on.Liveinadive wrote:It will be a long, long time before people stop driving their own cars by any meaningful amount. Which is entirely irrelevant to your question.
"..the pseudo-Left new style.." -
People will want it but it will involve cars having to cycle through the second hand system before it is a majority, plenty of people with cars that are 15-20-30 years old.
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There will be retro kits. I expect it to come into haulage first. HGV drivers need to take a break every few hours, they sleep, and they need paying."..the pseudo-Left new style.."
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I think that servicing revenues will stay the same or increase. Although there maybe less cars, the same journeys will need to be made, maybe even more with the convenience. So overall milage I'd imagine would increase. Service would probably drop on wide spread adoption of electric cars. I person can't wait to have an robot car doing my bidding.aaaaaAAH FA-SHION!
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Fuck retro kits, that is gonna take some serious approval. If they are anything like retro fit alarms the roads will look like the end of days.
I can see it now, the mouth breathers behind the Halfords counter fitting cheap shit, badly to unfit cars using the wrong size screw driver and cable ties, in the car park while the customer watches amping up the pressure because their shit eating kid needs to get to Judo or some crap.
For hgv definitely, cost of upgrading the vehicle will be made back quickly and can be phased in for big business. -
Although there are millions of cars, millions of people still use the tubes and buses evryday. DLR is driverless without any meaningful loss of jobs or decrease in fares.
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The new tube trains are driverless ready apparently. With no more Bob Crowe it won't be long.
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IanHamlett wrote:
I don't think it will. Most of the people I work with travel for an hour per work day. Most of the managers I've worked with are doing over two. If they could watch an episode of Quincy on the way to work and spend an hour on Facebook on the way home, while paying less insurance, I think that's gonna catch on.Liveinadive wrote:It will be a long, long time before people stop driving their own cars by any meaningful amount. Which is entirely irrelevant to your question.
I think that's one of the problems which need to be addressed, the insurance. If there is an accident who is responsible? The car or the driver/passenger?aaaaaAAH FA-SHION! -
For the last time, you are not Raiden! Now take that silly wig off and eat your dinner.Tempy wrote:i will parry them with my sword and they will die
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LesterUnlimited wrote:
I think that's one of the problems which need to be addressed, the insurance. If there is an accident who is responsible? The car or the driver/passenger?IanHamlett wrote:
I don't think it will. Most of the people I work with travel for an hour per work day. Most of the managers I've worked with are doing over two. If they could watch an episode of Quincy on the way to work and spend an hour on Facebook on the way home, while paying less insurance, I think that's gonna catch on.Liveinadive wrote:It will be a long, long time before people stop driving their own cars by any meaningful amount. Which is entirely irrelevant to your question.
Would have to be the car/manufacturer. It would be impossible to portion blame to passengers. -
Depends on the law really. You can't blame cruise control if you plough into the back of someone.
Which means, I imagine, you won't be checking Facebook anytime soon. -
Cruise control is totally different to driverless cars though. You would never put a car on cruise control and have a nap. Unless you were American.
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The cars will be completely driverless eventually. It will be a service you pay for, therefore the insurance will be covered by the service provider.
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It will depend how the law sees it. I would be very suprised if they are happy to have 1 ton metal boxes moving up and down the country with no human fail safe.Hulka T wrote:Cruise control is totally different to driverless cars though. You would never put a car on cruise control and have a nap. Unless you were American.
Right now and until these systems are proven on a mass level, I think there will be an expectation for someone to be in control even if not controlling the car.
The alternate is what is being trailed in Milton Keynes next year, however that system is far from cars as we know them. They are low speed, small and limited to certain routes and areas.Pretty much personal trams really.
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Liveinadive wrote:
It will depend how the law sees it. I would be very suprised if they are happy to have 1 ton metal boxes moving up and down the country with no human fail safe.Hulka T wrote:Cruise control is totally different to driverless cars though. You would never put a car on cruise control and have a nap. Unless you were American.
Right now and until these systems are proven on a mass level, I think there will be an expectation for someone to be in control even if not controlling the car.
The alternate is what is being trailed in Milton Keynes next year, however that system is far from cars as we know them. They are low speed, small and limited to certain routes and areas.Pretty much personal trams really.
I was listening to a podcast where they said that the robot cars are safer when there's no human interaction at all. When you have a hybrid human/robot system you have a compromised system with the worst of human error and the least optimal driving scripts. They hypothesised that cars would not have any controls like a steering wheel and just have a touch screen for navigation.
aaaaaAAH FA-SHION! -
Milton Keynes Driverless cars
This will be pretty much the test study on truly driverless cars should it go ahead.
Growing up there you got these things crop up every now and again. As pointed out it was a monorail at first, trams were mentioned, the buses were forever on hold to get better resulting in shit bus services on diesel chuggers from the late 80s.
What is important to remember about Milton Keynes is that it has the grid system which makes these sort of plans vastly simpler in comparison to other towns. However it also has the red ways, which have been rumoured to be used for these things.
Point 1 about the red ways, you can go to all four corners and the centre of Milton Keynes without ever crossing a major road. Lovely for bike rides and walks.
Point 2, they are for bike rides and walks, therefore using them is going to mean being limited to the speed of a mobility scooter.
So they are going to have to use the roads. Bus lanes were planned once in Milton Keynes, there was uproar so individual lanes is out.
They simply wouldn't be safe lumped in with the other traffic, about 90% of drivers in Milton Keynes ignores proper roundabout etiquette because when you have to go around 10 to get to Tesco you soon get fed up. Most visitors comment on how intimidating it can be,
The only way these will work long term is to dig up the roadsides. This is actually OK, most of the V and H (grid roads) were designed to be expandable. However there is a huge cost in widening every road in a small city.
What I'm saying is Milton Keynes is the perfect scenario and I still don't see how these things will work. -
Fully computer controlled cars would all but eliminate traffic I reckon. They would also make electric cars a realistic proposition.
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LesterUnlimited wrote:
I was listening to a podcast where they said that the robot cars are safer when there's no human interaction at all. When you have a hybrid human/robot system you have a compromised system with the worst of human error and the least optimal driving scripts. They hypothesised that cars would not have any controls like a steering wheel and just have a touch screen for navigation.Liveinadive wrote:
It will depend how the law sees it. I would be very suprised if they are happy to have 1 ton metal boxes moving up and down the country with no human fail safe. Right now and until these systems are proven on a mass level, I think there will be an expectation for someone to be in control even if not controlling the car. The alternate is what is being trailed in Milton Keynes next year, however that system is far from cars as we know them. They are low speed, small and limited to certain routes and areas.Pretty much personal trams really.Hulka T wrote:Cruise control is totally different to driverless cars though. You would never put a car on cruise control and have a nap. Unless you were American.
That's one car in a test though, fill the roads with millions of them and how many crashes, bugs and failures will we have? -
IanHamlett wrote:Driverless cars will be allowed on British roads in Jan 2015. Taxi and HGV drivers will be replaced. Car ownership will decline meaning less jobs in manufacture, distribution, sales and maintenance. Fewer parking spaces and petrol stations will be needed. How is our economy going to work when robots are doing all the jobs?
It will take a long time for the driverless car to become common. Though stranger things probably have already happened...
The biggest challenge is in mapping.
It essentially sounds like you'd have to map the vehicles' route(s) in a LOD measurable to the nearest half meter... And preferably (I suppose. I am speculating a bit here) a higher resolution than that.
After you solved that rather considerable data stream/storage problem (don't forget the nightmare of keeping the map up to date) then you can get into the bad ass, rock star machine vision stuff...
This article taught me a fair bit about the project:
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2014/10/google_self_driving_car_it_may_never_actually_happen.html
I'd happily travel on a robotic bus though. I think that would be cool.
The form and purpose of the bus insulates it from the type of pressure that I feel a robotic car will be many years away from coping with...
And given the work involved, would a robotic bus prove to be economical?
Moore's law being what it is, in it's current guise, it might be possible to map out the square mile or something...
But a trip from work via the offie' on the way to the club, and back to your place with company at 4am in the morning?
That might be further away than the reports are leading us to believe."I didn't get it. BUUUUUUUUUUUT, you fucking do your thing." - Roujin
Ninty Code: SW-7904-0771-0996 -
Depends how many humans decide Fuck this I know better and take the controls.aaaaaAAH FA-SHION!
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LesterUnlimited wrote:Depends how many humans decide Fuck this I know better and take the controls.
How many GPS devices take you some bull shit route, or down a dead end, or a one way street, or fail as a street is not yet mapped? -
Thats right now though, in 10 or 20 years will that be happening? Hard to say. Theres no way I would be interested in having partial control (and blamability) of a car, it would have to be all or nothing. Plus obligatory ejector seat.
How easy would farming be to robotise? With that in place all we need is free housing and our economy would surely become a leisure society? -
Hulka T wrote:Thats right now though, in 10 or 20 years will that be happening? Hard to say. Theres no way I would be interested in having partial control (and blamability) of a car, it would have to be all or nothing. Plus obligatory ejector seat.
How easy would farming be to robotise? With that in place all we need is free housing and our economy would surely become a leisure society?
Yeah, intelligent integrated infrastructure. There's no way I could be arsed to drive again.
I for one welcome our new robot slaves.
aaaaaAAH FA-SHION!
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