Politics of the Free - It’s because Democrats, stupid.
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The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning. -
Tuesday at 9pm on Channel 4. Matt Frei, whilst quite a populist journo, is pretty perceptive when it come to US politics so worth a watch.
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GooberTheHat wrote:The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.
The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal. -
He's a bit like Jeremy Corbyn in that respect because his first electorate are partial to his position (outside of govt elite system, keen on low tax almost certainly - low govt) but this will make him trickier to win. The nomination process makes him look more of a contender than he would be across the wider populous.
problems that could occur a) his popularity makes him a player overall - i.e. the perception he is going to win, makes it more likely he can win. b) depending on the demo nomination - left winger Bernie or woman Hilary, depending on if America hates the idea of sorts of people representing them, TRUMPO gets an edge off people who might not naturally gun republican. -
Hmm, maybe Sanders could pip Clinton after all: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/
Sanders vs Trump would be riveting. -
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Stopharage wrote:
The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.GooberTheHat wrote:The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.
Agreed, but if they drop him he will run as an independent and take a large percentage of their votes anyway. Probably more than they would lose by having him as their candidate. -
Forget Trump, it's this guy the Republicans need to fear. Good old Vermin.
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Stopharage wrote:Tuesday at 9pm on Channel 4. Matt Frei, whilst quite a populist journo, is pretty perceptive when it come to US politics so worth a watch.
Currently watching.
I'm gonna need a cold shower after this. Fucking hell what an absolute cretin. -
Stopharage wrote:
The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.
This poll is on the high end with 40% of black voters and 45% of Hispanics. I've seen another that puts Trump support among black voters at 25% but that's still fucking good for a Republican.Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, even support Trump at a higher level than whites.
]http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/minorities-line-up-behind-donald-trump/"..the pseudo-Left new style.." -
So he literally insults them, and they still support him?! WTF.I'm falling apart to songs about hips and hearts... -
It's a bit vague, but that seems to be a poll of registered Republicans. The question is about the Republican Primary anyway.
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That's how I understood it. The question is less how will he fare in the Primary, but more how will he fare in the election. It's one thing to get your party nomination, you still need to beat the other party. So nationally, how likely is it Trump will repeat those numbers?
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About as likely as he is to feel an ounce of humility.
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Even if trump doesn't win his internal success will create the space for a nastier paradigm in us politics.
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The Republican Party has been shifting that way for a while thanks to the Tea Party. The only good news is that it also shifts them further from electability.
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It depends. Trump is very much an outside agent to the Republican party. The failure of Mitt Romney was supposed to start a change away from targeting only older white folks, because that was no longer sufficient to win. There were some very awkward attempts at courting minorities, but the rise of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio can be attributed to that.
If Trump fails to win, especially against someone as establishment as Hillary Clinton, it's quite likely that the Republicans will look at that and decide that being as toxic as possible isn't the way forward. Trump has only succeeded so far because he's an outside candidate. They are unlikely to find someone else outside the party who can sustain like Trump in four years time. -
In four years time, Trump will be running for his second term and blaming the Jews for his Trump Wall collapsing. And he'll probably still be banging on about China.
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Unfortunately for them, a significant number of republican activists and grass roots supporters are naturally toxic and drawn to toxic candidates and there's not much the higher ups can do about that. The Republican Party is currently tearing itself apart, and pushing a more moderate candidate on the membership could well cause a split.
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I think Jeb is the 'moderate' candidate. They don't really seem to have a way to push him further though, endorsements and a big war chest haven't worked so far.
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IanHamlett wrote:Stopharage wrote:
The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.
This poll is on the high end with 40% of black voters and 45% of Hispanics. I've seen another that puts Trump support among black voters at 25% but that's still fucking good for a Republican.Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, even support Trump at a higher level than whites.
]http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/minorities-line-up-behind-donald-trump/
Like others have said that's Republican candidates only. He won't get near 40% of black voters.
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Watvhing the Trump expose, just saw a bloke spit at someone. Yay freedom. I'm full of eugh at the moment so spitting on one of these trump supporters seems very sexy right now"Better than a tech demo. But mostly a tech demo for now. Exactly what we expected, crashes less and less. No multiplayer."
- BnB NMS review, PS4, PC -
He can't win the nomination/denial"Better than a tech demo. But mostly a tech demo for now. Exactly what we expected, crashes less and less. No multiplayer."
- BnB NMS review, PS4, PC -
So
If Trump does become president, would it be the harbinger of
a) capitalism's end
b) the US' end
c) neither of the above - status quo to be resumed (establishment figures follow Trump or Trump ends up being surprisingly competent administrator etc)
d) something else -
I'd say that odds are about even that it would end up being the end of the world.
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Send messageI can't be arsed to look up his donors but I guess if he gets in he's just going to be the uber puppet for the financial industry's motives a la Reagan."Let me tell you, when yung Rouj had his Senna and Mansell Scalextric, Frank was the goddamn Professor X of F1." -
I'm not sure if he has any donors of note, isn't he pretty much funding himself?
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All the focus is on Trump being a cunt, but I'm not convinced Cruz is much better.
None of it really matters. Clinton will win. -
She's got to be nominated first. I expect she will be, but Sanders isn't out yet.
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I can't help but wish for Sanders to win"Better than a tech demo. But mostly a tech demo for now. Exactly what we expected, crashes less and less. No multiplayer."
- BnB NMS review, PS4, PC
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