Jason J Hunter wrote:In laymans terms:
"But Germany, France and Italy won't stop buying things from the UK if we leave" say the brexiteers, they NEED us, and they won't put us into a tariff regime, so says the Leave EU camp.
It won't be a choice, it's not a case of the EU damaging their imports to be spiteful to a UK that just voted to leave the EU. The fact is that there exists a document called the Treaty of the European Union and it sets out the very foundation of how the 28 member states work and cooperate together. It was part written by the UK and part drafted by UK lawyers.
It was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create a 'thing' called the "EU Common External Tariff Regime" for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs are in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU doesn't desperately need and lower for the things it does need desperately like energy for example - which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norways exports to the EU is oil and gas.
When we tear up our membership card, Article 50 of the Treaty I mentioned comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU we are leaving the club all our agreements terminate 24 months after notification. When this happens (potentially summer 2018) we are automatically under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to.
The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty. It just isn't feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit.
Meanwhile we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. This could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide).
The point is that the UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO guidelines) is automatic if we elect to Leave and there is nothing that Germany, France or Spain or even the UK can do about it.
Currently we enjoy unlimited trade with the largest trading bloc on the planet free from duties, tariffs or quota and that is my main reason for voting to stay IN the EU.
It's also worth noting that of all the top ten economies in the world every single one of them with a population of less than one billion people is a member of a continental trade bloc like the EU. Do we really think we are powerful enough to buck the trend of global trade and international economics? I think not. We are pretty good, but not *that* good.
Funkstain wrote:I cannot stand the negative campaigning from the pro EU group. It makes me want to vote to leave. It falls straight into the hands of Boris and co. Fucking Hollande with his "beware of leaving we'll fuck you up" yeah that's going to be great at persuading people..
Funkstain wrote:It would be good to see a proper rebuttal of that article if it's at all possible. If it's dead on, then I cannot see how anyone can justify exiting the EU from a trade / economic point of view.
Man to carefully weigh up pros and cons of EU then just be racist
A MAN is planning to carefully assess the risks and benefits of Britain leaving the EU then just vote on the basis of not liking immigrants, he has announced.
Retired engineer Roy Hobbs intends to read up on issues like the single market and trade tariffs before imagining a horde of gypsy beggars, Eastern European criminals and crazed jihadis taking over his village.
Hobbs said: “I feel it’s my duty to understand the facts, even if my actual decision is based on a paranoid fantasy about no one speaking English and only being able to buy weird Polish sausages.
“I’m currently reading a cost-benefit analysis of EU membership in The Economist, which I will weigh up against my recurring dream where 20 Bulgarians move in next door and start making vile suggestions to my wife.
“It’s a tough call but ultimately I think I’ll be guided by my innate sense of terror and loathing towards any person whose looks or accent are noticeably different to mine.”
Funkstain wrote:I don't think so - I was saying that justifying leaving on an economic basis would be very difficult, since it suggests that we would never be in such good trading conditions again ("never" meaning a very long time, potentially decades).
GooberTheHat wrote:But how would we be able to negotiate a better deal with China et al as just the UK, than we get as a member of the largest trading bloc in the world? Where are these aces up our sleeves that means that other nations are going to bend over backwards for us when we leave?
Kow wrote:Much as some factions would like to imagine the contrary, the days of the British Empire are not coming back. No small country can exist in vacuum now. Brexit is a desperate clinging to bygone days and I hope I live long enough to tell you I told you so.
Oh lighten up, it's just a joke.Childintime wrote:... But I fucking hate this jumping on anyone who would express an idea to the contrary.
djchump wrote:http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-to-carefully-weigh-up-pros-and-cons-of-eu-then-just-be-racist-20160307106893
Man to carefully weigh up pros and cons of EU then just be racist
A MAN is planning to carefully assess the risks and benefits of Britain leaving the EU then just vote on the basis of not liking immigrants, he has announced.
Retired engineer Roy Hobbs intends to read up on issues like the single market and trade tariffs before imagining a horde of gypsy beggars, Eastern European criminals and crazed jihadis taking over his village.
Hobbs said: “I feel it’s my duty to understand the facts, even if my actual decision is based on a paranoid fantasy about no one speaking English and only being able to buy weird Polish sausages.
“I’m currently reading a cost-benefit analysis of EU membership in The Economist, which I will weigh up against my recurring dream where 20 Bulgarians move in next door and start making vile suggestions to my wife.
“It’s a tough call but ultimately I think I’ll be guided by my innate sense of terror and loathing towards any person whose looks or accent are noticeably different to mine.”
GooberTheHat wrote:But how would be be able to leverage that into a more positive trade deal? We have around a 20 billion pound trade deficit to China. Despite their love of all things British they hold all the cards.
GooberTheHat wrote:They are also behind the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, France and Ireland as our biggest export markets.
Childintime wrote:There's a tendency to paint brexiters are unknowing, economically cavalier racists as if everyone on the left was some kind of economic expert. Well, if I was constantly being attacked by fearmongering and classist dismissive was then I'd basically stop engaging with everyone and vote however I wanted. I genuinely think a lot of people are voting UKIP, Trump etc. because they're tired of being talked down to and ignored every time they raise a point. There are reasons to want to leave. The EU has deep flaws. My vote? Probably stay, I think. But I fucking hate this jumping on anyone who would express an idea to the contrary.
There's only so much tweed a country can buy. The textiles would probably be made in China, shipped to sweatshops in Indonesia, shipped back to distributors in China, shipped to warehouses in the UK, then sold back to Chinese Anglophiles at several thousand % markup. Not hard to see where some middlemen can get cut out of that loop.Funkstain wrote:... does a love for Premier League football and extremely expensive niche cars (owned by an Indian conglomerate...) translate into multi-billion pound long term trade deals? ...
Funkstain wrote:My instinct (nothing more) is that your list seems illustrative but superficial - as you say yourself, does a love for Premier League football and extremely expensive niche cars (owned by an Indian conglomerate...) translate into multi-billion pound long term trade deals? Does the fact that we are out of the EU not mean we could be weaker in negotiations with our new bestest human rights transgressing buds, due to our desperation for any business?
Finally, through the prism of western media, the prevailing view is that China's growth is slowing and approaching an at best trepidatious and at worse catastrophic phase. Any trade deal, even with a stagnant China, would be worth billions but surely any motivation to be "nicer" to us would be affected by local conditions.
In short, again, I cannot see how being out of the EU would help with negotiations with other trading blocks / countries, at a macro full-stack business level (as opposed to a few opportunistic / aspirational brands).
monkey wrote:It's not that there aren't good, non-racist reasons for leaving the EU. It's that the reasons for going are so objectively weak in comparison to the reasons to stay in. To choose leaving over staying is such a bad, irrational choice that I suspect it's driven by knee-jerk, Sun headline reading, small-minded, mean-spirited racism.
Diluted Dante wrote:Cinty, it's generally their arguments that paint them as unknowing economically cavalier racists. Apparantly all of Turkey is about to move to Lincolnshire when they get EU membership in the next few months.
Except it's most likely decades, and just because they can move here doesn't mean they will.
djchump wrote:There's only so much tweed a country can buy. The textiles would probably be made in China, shipped to sweatshops in Indonesia, shipped back to distributors in China, shipped to warehouses in the UK, then sold back to Chinese Anglophiles at several thousand % markup. Not hard to see where some middlemen can get cut out of that loop.Funkstain wrote:... does a love for Premier League football and extremely expensive niche cars (owned by an Indian conglomerate...) translate into multi-billion pound long term trade deals? ...
Childintime wrote:And "they" are?
Daily Mail readers?
Tory voters?
UKIP voters?
Old people?
The working class?
Who?
Because all of the above outdo Labour, The Greens and The Guardian (in terms of votes and readership) by quite some margin. "They" represent the UK better than we do, it seems, as painful as it is to admit.
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!