The British Politics Thread
  • You see some of the old guard Tories talk like Ken Clark, John Major and even Portilo and even though I didn't agree with them, I had a bit of respect for how they carried themselves. 
    the current shower of shit are close to psychopaths in my opinion. Braverman is unhinged, Gullis can't talk properly, Sunak and Truss are Sociopaths.
    Sometimes here. Sometimes Lurk. Occasionally writes a bad opinion then deletes it before posting..
  • b0r1s
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    It’s was that mob that joined in 2019. Absolute swamp bottom feeders if I can mix a metaphor. They are, as we have seen, just a short step away from your Reform / BNP / Britain First ilk.

    Even though the economics of the old guard only really benefited the middle and upper class they at least had the sense to understand the economics. This lot literally don’t know how to run a government.
  • I find Braverman particularly grotesque.
    Some of the others like Gullis are just thick and we should blame the people who put them there first and foremost.

    Braverman is conniving (although granted not especially bright otherwise). I also think she is genuine in her bigotry, not a weather vane like Johnson, she means it.
  • b0r1s
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    Agreed. I always though Patel was bad but Braverman makes her look like a pussy cat, calm down DavyK :-D
  • GooberTheHat
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    The worst part is that they're not even attractive or charming. If I'm going to be conned by a right wing populist/nut job, the least they can do is try and seduce me a little bit.
  • Looks like Sunak is going to hook the next 6 months on the analysis that extrapolated last week's results across the whole of the UK.
    This analysis had the contest much closer than the polls and at first glance would return a hung parliament and with time a potential reversal of fate for the Tories.

    Except it's quite poor analysis. Curtice has a piece on the BBC explaining why but this from the Guardian says the same with a bit more detail and explanation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/06/hung-parliament-uk-general-election-rishi-sunak
  • davyK
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    The real damage being done is summed up in Starmer's bit in the Observer yesterday. A zombie government is doing no-one any good, including themselves . They need to go.
    Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009.
  • 100%
    Leaving this until autumn or worse January is pure delusion.
  • b0r1s
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    I listened to Times Radio bit where a pollster said it’s a mistake to simply extrapolate upwards from the local election result. I’d have hoped even Rishi wouldn’t be that dumb. These results are about the same that Blair had before winning in 97.
  • davyK
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    Local elections are more about local performance and how good the councillors are.  It isn't a result I'd scale up with any confidence but it's a good indicator, especially the mayoral elections.

    Cannot believe that cunt Houchen got in again. Up to his armpits in that Freeport.
    Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009.
  • davyK
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    b0r1s wrote:
    It’s was that mob that joined in 2019. Absolute swamp bottom feeders if I can mix a metaphor. They are, as we have seen, just a short step away from your Reform / BNP / Britain First ilk. Even though the economics of the old guard only really benefited the middle and upper class they at least had the sense to understand the economics. This lot literally don’t know how to run a government.

    That's Johnson. Pure and simple. Brought in the nodding dogs that lapped up the Brexit raw meat. Will take maybe 2 GEs to get rid of them.
    Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009.
  • b0r1s
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    I still blame that cunt Cameron tbh. BoJo was just his usual opportunist self.
  • There was something else that came from Labour over the weekend. Saw it on a live feed but haven't seen it anywhere else since.

    It's direct from a named Labour source so take it as you will.

    They were saying in 2019 Labour needed a 12pt national lead over the Tories to deliver a 1 seat majority.
    This was because they were 'over' winning certain seats skewing the national numbers.

    They reckon they have been targeting winnable seats in the build up to these local elections and it's paying off, pointing to North Yorkshire as an example. So they aren't having to gain as many points nationally to convert seats.

    They didn't say how much of a lead they do think they need over the Tories but that's for obvious reasons, the press would track it like dogs.
  • EvilRedEye
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    I remember seeing something similar but my recollection is someone said they only needed 9pts instead of 12.
    "ERE's like Mr. Muscle, he loves the things he hates"
  • I could be misremembering to be fair.
    The thrust of it is they think theyll need less this time.
  • There were a couple of articles about that floating around. Their vote 'efficiency'. Corbyn - inefficient, votes piling up in cities. Starmer spreads it about, more votes where they're likely to make a difference.

    I'm not sure how much it's Labour's doing. Corbyn didn't just target cities, they went after the swing seats. But at that point the Tories weren't as unpopular and people weren't voting so tactically.
  • Corbyn was more divisive, people really liked him or really didn't and those people were likely clustered together.

    Nobody really likes Starmer but basically everyone hates Sunak.

    Edit: Johnson was also really liked by a lot of people.
  • It's easy to be more efficient when the people you're trying to beat are getting less votes. May got 13.6m, and Johnson got 13.9m. Cameron by contrast got 11.3m in 2015 and 10.7m in 2010.

    Does anyone here seriously thing that Sunak is going to get close to that? I'd suggest that he's likely to get less than Hague, which is the Tories nadir at 8.3m.
  • You'd imagine even Starmer knows a good bit of this election victory will be because the tories are at their absolute lowest. Surely that's what has been the most disappointing about their approach. They really did not need to tread so softly.
    SFV - reddave360
  • This isn't an attack on Corbyn btw.
    Just how it is.
    I think they have learned from 2019 and whether it's Starmer or if it was a Momentum candidate this is the kind of thing they would be right to look into.
  • One of the main benefits of this upcoming election for Labour is that Reform will split the right wing vote. An advantage Corbyn never had.

    If they decide to only field candidates against Labour things could get tighter. I don't think that's happening though, Tice seems set on giving it a proper run
    Probably thinks he can end up the defacto Right party and he may not be wrong.
  • Is it them actually doing anything different though? All parties always have target seats, and seats they mark to defend as it's someone else's target seat.

    Assuming they are basing this off the current locals, Labour got 34%, and the Tories 25%. In 2018, Corbyn's highest total, he got 35% but so did the Tories. I think it's much more likely as monkey said that it's just the Tories aren't as popular and people are voting tactically more.
  • davyK
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    b0r1s wrote:
    I still blame that cunt Cameron tbh. BoJo was just his usual opportunist self.

    It goes back to that for sure. Turned a party row into a national issue which will take a generation to get over.
    Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009.
  • Also Sunak isn't taking the Scottish vote into account, which is where he is getting his numbers.
    Sometimes here. Sometimes Lurk. Occasionally writes a bad opinion then deletes it before posting..
  • Tories ignoring Scotland? Shocker.
  • Its a flaw of the model.
    The Tories have just latched onto that model because its the only one that isnt total doom.
  • I cant believe the have resurrected the "Coalition of chaos" line after the last 8 years.
    Its such an own goal, so easy for Labour and any other party to rattle off the long list of chaotic events caused by the Tories, not least 3 PMs in 3 years.
  • Another Tory MP has defected to Labour. Haven't read anything about her yet, as ever, not really comfortable with Labour letting them in.
  • LivDiv wrote:
    Another Tory MP has defected to Labour. Haven't read anything about her yet, as ever, not really comfortable with Labour letting them in.

    Had a quick look at her statement, and found it actively worrying from a Labour perspective - lots of stuff about small boats and Labour having "accepted Brexit".  Couldn't have sounded more Tory.
  • Yeah not a good look.
    If she commits to standing down at the GE I'm less bothered but standing as a Labour candidate is bad.

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