Wot I thunk:

Trump's going to war sooner or later. Together with Bannon he is going after Isis. It's a war they cannot win of course.
They follow a similar ideology to Geert Wilders in the Netherlands who believes extremist islam to be the definitive version of Islam. This islam is incompatible with western culture and our civilisations will eventually clash in a great cataclysmic and glorious war. Of course in Trump's and Bannon's vision the West will win ('cos white superiority, lol)) and to the victor the spoils: oil! And we all know how cozy Trump is with the oil industry.

The ? is, can a senseless ideologic war like this escalate into something bigger? World War 3 would be a worst case scenario nobody wants to happen. Only thing that could stop the inevitable Bannon/Trump bandwagon o' war is congress and the Republicans turning on Trump. Hopefully sooner rather than later as the outlook on Trump's presidential reign is looking exceedingly grimm even after just one month.

South China Sea will be the place they start a barny I reckon.

GooberTheHat wrote:

South China Sea will be the place they start a barny I reckon.

Yarr... The supposed oil.

But whoever is stupid enough to poke China will need a pretext first.
There's no way any power on Earth can displace an entity as vast as China with force alone.

In using North Korea as subterfuge, any countr... Let's be honest, the Yanks... would be able to draw at least some form of support from most of the neighbouring Asian countries.

Also, better Malaysia, than using South Korea as a 'beachead' to the region, surely.

Surely Trump's not stupid enough risking an escalating war with a nuclear superpower? China is therefore unlikely methinks.
Iraq is still prime target for Trump and cronies.
The N-Korean thing they'll leave to the chinese to solve. Nothing of business interest there for the US.

hunk wrote:

Surely Trump's not stupid enough risking an escalating war with a nuclear superpower? China is therefore unlikely methinks.
Iraq is still prime target for Trump and cronies.
The N-Korean thing they'll leave to the chinese to solve. Nothing of business interest there for the US.

They managed to have a ton of wars with the Soviet Union without ever going to war with them, so I'm sure they can find a way if they want too. Plenty of pretext there to what with the Chinese expansion in the region.

I'm not saying it's justified, but it will be used as justification.

I don't think conventional war is being discussed here, not with China anyway. Economic and soft aggression, yes.

Send in the whiteshirts.

Wait.

nick_md wrote:

I don't think conventional war is being discussed here, not with China anyway. Economic and soft aggression, yes.

Don't America currently owe China billions and billions though

cockbeard wrote:

nick_md wrote:

I don't think conventional war is being discussed here, not with China anyway. Economic and soft aggression, yes.

Don't America currently owe China billions and billions though

It's over $1.2 trillion, which makes then the largest foreign holder of American debt behind the Federal Reserve and SSTC, as far as I'm aware. The importance of holding American debt as a way to leverage compliance from them is overstated though - what the fuck are you gonna do with it? Dump it?

It's a way of propping up their economy and thus maintaining the strength of the dollar, whilst perhaps getting favourable trade terms, nothing more. It's the same reason Japan has traditionally held a load.

See, me, I'd just repossess the place

That's pretty much the way the world works isn't it

Childintime wrote:

GooberTheHat wrote:

I would say China are more compromised than the US with that amount of debt on the table. Couldn't America just refuse to, or stall on, making payments if China don't tow the line.

It's a massive issue aye, but it doesn't benefit either country to play chicken with US debt - as it would either damage favourable exchange rates for China / Japan etc. or negatively influence the face that American debt is still seen as incredibly "safe". So, despite the supposed power it gives the two countries, depending on how you look at it, it is just gonna sit there with a thumb up its arse for now.

I'm no expert, mind, that's just how I read it.

cockbeard wrote:

See, me, I'd just repossess the place

That's pretty much the way the world works isn't it

Yeah, good luck with that.

That seems like a sound reading. If America could somehow engineer a casus belli then they might use that as the hook to hang the unpaid debt on. Especially if their economy starts tanking in the near future.

cockbeard wrote:

If I don't pay a mortgage I lose my house

Seems that all the land in the USA is worth $23 trillion linky

So the debt (1.2 trillion) is 5% or 491000 sq km

California and Indiana should cover it

It's unsecured debt. Plus the home owner has the strongest most advanced military forces that have ever existed.

Depends who buys the debt and at what price.

I_R wrote:

What happens if the Chinese did start dumping the debt onto the market. Doesn't that sort of signal of a lack of confidence crash everything. Not that that would be a good thing, but I suspect that the West would handle that sort of shock worse than the Chinese and Russians.

Well that's why Putin nationalised the bank wasn't it, so as to insulate it somewhat from the global economy