To do the stuff we do. We’ve shaped the world around us.

Imagine AI sexbots going an a murderous killing spree after networking with their fellow bots.. Now there's an idea for a horror movie/satirical comedy.

Nope.

The thing is I’m not even disagreeing with SG. But his timeline is batshit. 
ALL JOBS (except teaching) GONE in 20 YEARS. You can’t build that many robots in that space of time. 

A list of jobs that I’ve done off the top of head that can’t, won’t and / or people will not allow to be automated within the next 20 years. They may change, there may be less of them but they will still exist and humans will be doing them. 
If your job, like mine, is sitting at a desk typing at a computer all day, producing all-digital output, then prepare your anus. Because you don’t have 20 years left in your profession. First the tools will change, then the data of all the things you do in the process will be harvested, then AI will be doing more and more of what’s left of your job, then you’re gone. I assume other jobs will be created but ???

Beyond 20 years, all bets are off. Once an AI android can be given a job and design and build another AI android to fulfill it, it’s done. Everything is sci-fi from then on. An autonomous factory that builds autonomous factories that it ships using supply routes it controls, and assembles itself at the other end, and then starts building more stuff, or farming, mining etc.

monkey wrote:

The thing is I’m not even disagreeing with SG. But his timeline is batshit.  ALL JOBS (except teaching) GONE in 20 YEARS. You can’t build that many robots in that space of time.  A list of jobs that I’ve done off the top of head that can’t, won’t and / or people will not allow to be automated within the next 20 years. They may change, there may be less of them but they will still exist and humans will be doing them. 

Spoiler:

Doctor (person who sticks fingers in your orifices and tells you you’ve got cancer. No robots are going to be doing that job in my lifetime), any job working directly with users of health and social services from opticians to care workers to chiropodists to social workers, lawyer, estate agent, professional sports person, counsellor, judge, any manual trade whatsoever, safety inspector, police officer, nursery worker, anyone working with kids, vet, a lot of sales jobs, engineer, Bargain Hunt presenter, anyone in politics, manager (there might be a lot less of them), waiter, chef, general hospitality, Brown Owl, professional criminal, sex worker.

If your job, like mine, is sitting at a desk typing at a computer all day, producing all digital output, then prepare your anus. Because you don’t have 20 years left in your profession. First the tools will change, then the data of all the things you do in the process will be harvested, then AI will be doing more and more of what’s left of your job, then you’re gone. I assume other jobs will be created but ??? Beyond 20 years, all bets are off. Once an AI android can be given a job and design and build another AI android to fulfill it, it’s done. Everything is sci-fi from then on. An autonomous factory that builds autonomous factories that it ships using supply routes it controls, and assembles itself at the other end, and then starts building more stuff, or farming, mining etc.

20 yrs is a long time in AI. The bet is a Twix.

monkey wrote:

Beyond 20 years, all bets are off. Once an AI android can be given a job and design and build another AI android to fulfill it, it’s done. Everything is sci-fi from then on. An autonomous factory that builds autonomous factories that it ships using supply routes it controls, and assembles itself at the other end, and then starts building more stuff, or farming, mining etc.

Contrary to what Dante says above though, this one is about cost. There are limits to resources. Even the ultra-smart AI can’t keep building stuff out of nothing.

bad_hair_day wrote:

djchump wrote:

Imagine a human paid as much as that robot costs.

Imagine not having to do repetitive, dirty or dangerous work for peanuts. At scale, humanoid robots will cost less than cars.

Great in theory.

If we were all vegan how many chickens do you think there would be on the planet?

poprock wrote:

People will always be cheaper. We need robots to do the things we can’t do, not the things we can.

Based on a US auto workers average total cost of employment to a company:

Per year: $60,000

x3 Shifts: $180,000

x7/5 Days/Week: $252,000

The robot's next best alternative is spending $252K
per year on a human.

US auto workers are not the cheapest humans.

Gradual, or abject poverty followed by famine, riots, mass starvation and death?

Think how hard it was to get a PS5, or a GPU during the crypto mining boom.

Now multiply that by several billion humans being replaced. Things quickly get expensive or impossible

poprock wrote:

US auto workers are not the cheapest humans.

My point here being that if we’re going to sit around talking dystopias, there are much lower depths to which we can sink, much faster and more easily. Humanoid robots are a fanciful luxury, at best.

bad_hair_day wrote:

GooberTheHat wrote:

What happens to the human?

Retirement, retraining, population decline. It will be a gradual replacement.

poprock wrote:

US auto workers are not the cheapest humans.

True, but where it will start in earnest.

What will cause the population decline?

I do think once integrated/whole system automation gets established then there will be exponential growth. I have absolutely no idea when or if integrated automation will become a thing though.

GooberTheHat wrote:

But how will people 'earn' a living to consume all the wealth of AI produce? What does 'costs' mean in an AI driven economy where te majority of people don't actually work? Will there still be consumers? How would capitalism work?

It won't. Those that some how manage to retain power will have no need for other humans so will throw any that don't have a purpose, or their own power, on the scrap heap.

Agreed, that's the thing that bothers me about the current swing to the hard right. The current system will only entrench itsself.

Also, what Gazelle mentioned on the existential perils of networked AI.