More likely scenario, based on what's actually going on in the world: Labour spend 10 years doing next to fuck all to improve most people's lives (and the bigger their majority, the less they try). Far-right narratives gain more traction. The Tories move further to the right and get voted back in once they find a competent leader.monkey wrote:The Tories on 18% is the lowest poll I've seen and it probably won't happen. But a result in that ballpark is grounds for some very mild optimism. The Tories would get 50 seats maybe. Reform probably none, or a handful at best. Labour up in the 400s. The only opposition that matters at that point is the left wing of Labour. They won't have much power mind. Probably as much any other opposition. More importantly that result would be the obliteration of Toryism. They'll be fighting against Reform. Get a trans-obsessed racist twat for a leader. More of their voters will die off. They'll still have to say how great Brexit has been. Younger voters won't forgive them in 5 years. It's going to be a proper toxic brand. Maybe a lost cause. At which point, a new moderate right-wing party (or the Lib Dems) might try and steal in, rather than leave the space open to Farage. So, at that point, Labour can do what they want. Give it a year or two and they can spend what they need. Cook the books however they want. Unfortunately what they want seems not very good (they'll sell off bits of the NHS early doors to get some money in). But it's not going to do them any good electorally to stick to the fiction of austerity. And they won't have to. They'll be the Government and have the power to change people's minds about it. After 5 years in power, voters won't be judging Labour on how closely they stuck to Jeremy Hunt's 2024 budget. I'm not sure I've completely convinced myself with all of that. But anything like that election result is a big win for erm something.
That's not socialism, it's neoliberalism, according to which the state exists primarily to ensure that the markets continue to function. In fact, if neoliberalism worked as originally intended, the state would actually be more involved in balancing the markets than it is - for example, intervening to break up monopolies/strangleholds on the market. It's just that in reality it's an internally contradictory system - it inevitably leads to huge accumulations of capital in the hands of a small number of people who can then influence politics/the state.Rev wrote:Ironically Socialism has always been something rich people enjoy and benefit from the most. Most bailouts occur because Rich people can't handle money properly and get a huge handout so they don't pay for their actions.
If the route to getting back to over 40% of the vote involved going further to the right, the Tories would be there by now.JonB wrote:More likely scenario, based on what's actually going on in the world: Labour spend 10 years doing next to fuck all to improve most people's lives (and the bigger their majority, the less they try). Far-right narratives gain more traction. The Tories move further to the right and get voted back in once they find a competent leader.
The idea that one might celebrate a rise in the fascist vote is baffling to me. The higher that percentage goes, the more credibility a party like Reform gathers.
Change won't come from Labour. The electorate creates the pressure to change, and with the Tories gone / divided, there's less weight pulling the other way. They go where they think the votes are.Brooks wrote:The notion that Toryism the set of policy behaviours will perish under this Labour era seems unserious.
Do I want my spiteful mismanagement hot or lukewarm, who can say.
davyK wrote:Don't think anyone doubts the cost. The information war needs to be won if anything close to what's needed to get services back on track is to be done; let alone considering renationalisation of anything.
The Conservative party’s biggest donor told colleagues that looking at Diane Abbott makes you “want to hate all black women” and said the MP “should be shot”, the Guardian can reveal.
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