Current Affairs - The Bear and Badger

hunk

You can't completely rule out 'dinho's scenario Goobs. Too many parallels to Iraq.
If you wanted to get rid of Asad permanently, this would be the way to do it. Like Bush and Blair before Trump and May wouldn't be able to resist and take the bait.

Or Asad is a nutty Dr.Evil who's out of control poisoning people whenever he can even if he knows it'll cost him his head in the long run. Probably.

Facewon

Christ, the bellingcat stuff is a mess to read about, likewise some of the other stuff.

Roujin

One thing that makes me sceptical that Assad is an evil supervillain, is that he will end up like Saddam or Gadaffi once he falls foul of the West to the point where they get an opening to remove him by force or turn the population against him. You have to be pretty fucking dumb or have Putin telling you he's got your back no matter what to use chemical weapons in his position.

Situation is so murky though. Well done Britain, France and then later the USA. We really saved the world, didn't we, fag?

That's a team America joke btw, no homophobia.

[Deleted User]

GooberTheHat wrote:

legaldinho wrote:

I just don't understand why you seem to think that "finding sarin" debunks hersch's article, despite my repeated comments, which noted that the OPCW found sarin and a bunch of other things. Did you understand that to mean "OPCW found no sarin and if it did it's game over"? We are going around in circles.

So are you claiming that the presence of sarin at the site of the attack is there as the result of a conspiracy to implicate Assad in the use of chemical weapons?

I'd use the word "policy" rather than conspiracy, but yeah. The latest events I would view as evidence of that policy, since we didn't even wait for verification by OPCW. I think that policy is a facet of the overarching policy which I would describe as "regime change at any cost short of boots on the ground". I object to regime change generally, after Iraq and Lybia. I particularly object to any change that risks putting Saudi backed extremists in charge. Whatever you say about Syria, at least one of the "shills" and "denialists" who is speaking out is a Christian archbishop. That simply won't exist under Al nusra.

JonB

Facewon

lol.

Facewon

Meanwhile, regardless of content and facts, I'll give the Hersh's and Fisks of this world one thing: they write well.

GooberTheHat

legaldinho wrote:

GooberTheHat wrote:

legaldinho wrote:

I just don't understand why you seem to think that "finding sarin" debunks hersch's article, despite my repeated comments, which noted that the OPCW found sarin and a bunch of other things. Did you understand that to mean "OPCW found no sarin and if it did it's game over"? We are going around in circles.

So are you claiming that the presence of sarin at the site of the attack is there as the result of a conspiracy to implicate Assad in the use of chemical weapons?

I'd use the word "policy" rather than conspiracy, but yeah. The latest events I would view as evidence of that policy, since we didn't even wait for verification by OPCW. I think that policy is a facet of the overarching policy which I would describe as "regime change at any cost short of boots on the ground". I object to regime change generally, after Iraq and Lybia. I particularly object to any change that risks putting Saudi backed extremists in charge. Whatever you say about Syria, at least one of the "shills" and "denialists" who is speaking out is a Christian archbishop. That simply won't exist under Al nusra.

OK, I disagree, but I wouldn't say it's an impossibility.

[Deleted User]

Equally I'll admit that I could be totally potty, but I don't think it's bad intentions or hating the west. I would hate to live under Assad or Putin and I am infinitely grateful to be here. I also think someone like Hersch isn't deluded or potty. If they got things wrong they are wrong because their source -- who is trusted and verified, misled them.

And I am more likely to be wrong about 2017 than 2018. Since your argument holds for 2017 (many attacks which were likely Syrian backed since it 2013 Assad and his people were shitting it had gone unpunished, so they thought fuck it). I just don't buy it for this one.

GooberTheHat

Fair enough.

But when you have the Russian embassy pushing out images like this. It makes me extremely sceptical of anything they say.

And claiming that the lack of damage to the wall or headboard means it must be staged is ridiculous.

As someone who has had a 120mm Chinese rocket land less than 10m away from me while I slept in a tent, and seen the the damage it caused, I can well imagine a non explosive munition causing that level of damage.

hunk

There are many scenario's possible.
One could be that Asad doesn't have 100% control over his factions. Some extremist fucks may have gone rogue and decided to use chemical weapons to clear up the area.

Another less likely scenario is it's all about the fake news dissonance. Like Iraq's wmd, look how that turned out.

[Deleted User]

GooberTheHat wrote:

Fair enough.

But when you have the Russian embassy pushing out images like this. It makes me extremely sceptical of anything they say.

And claiming that the lack of damage to the wall or headboard means it must be staged is ridiculous.

As someone who has had a 120mm Chinese rocket land less than 10m away from me while I slept in a tent, and seen the the damage it caused, I can well imagine a non explosive munition causing that level of damage.

Sure thing bud but do you see how that is a logical fallacy? The fact that Russians lie, propagandise etc doesn't mean the Syrians did use chemical weapons. From their point of view, they will do anything to prop up an ally.

And contrariwise, the fact that our allies have a policy of regime change at any cost doesn't mean that the claims that Syria is behind the attack aren't true.

As woody Allen said, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to kill you

tin_robot

Facewon wrote:

Christ, the bellingcat stuff is a mess to read about, likewise some of the other stuff.

The Bellingcat stuff's interesting to me, mainly because (for a variety of long winded reasons) I was at a talk given by the "Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media" (part of Demos) the other week. He was talking chiefly about "fake news" and the singular inability of the world's Governments to police the internet in any meaningful way, but he put aside a fair chunk of his time to hailing Bellingcat as "the one positive". He truly believed that this was a democratisation of investigative journalism and evidence gathering, and a shining ray of hope for the future. (Though, even taken at face value, if the best the future has to offer in the form of journalism is a guy surfing the internet and coming up with some Reckons, we're all screwed...)

[Deleted User]

I agree. Especially if he has the temerity to call someone out like Hersch as a denialist without addressing the article, or being transparent about the parameters of the argument. (Eg, yes the white helmets are founded by a military man but etc)

It's all part of a worrying trend - lots of studies on this - which is that we now trust "people like me", not experts. There's academic literature on this and all.

Bollockoff

Knowledge has gone £ land.

[Deleted User]

For a more accessible take on Seymour hersch's story, here is a part 2 of a discussion with Tariq Ali. Part 1 is really worth watching, since it is about the story he broke on the killing of Osama Bin Laden, another story that was vehemently and viciously denounced by others, though it's is demonstrably true given how many things he broke were later accepted.

Lots of stuff he didn't publish about Syria. I'm certainly inclined to believe him, he seems crucially connected to the US Army and some intelligence sources.

https://youtu.be/E0ByVXsOlCE

[Deleted User]

Here is one remnants of the story he mentions about chemical weapons being dumped in the Mediterranean, and the protests in Crete. https://neoskosmos.com/en/21554/chemical-waste-worries-cretans/

Kow

Syria Only “Weeks Away” From Bono Charity Single, Warns UN

GooberTheHat

If anyone is interested in the Russian disinformation campaign these links are worth looking at.

https://dashboard.securingdemocracy.org

https://euvsdisinfo.eu

https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-organization-for-the-prohibition-of-chemical-weapons-unable-to-establish-origin-of-nerve-agent-in-skripal-poisoning/

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/23/mcmaster-and-maskirovka/

GooberTheHat

legaldinho wrote:

Here is a report from Robert Fisk in Douma today

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-chemical-attack-gas-douma-robert-fisk-ghouta-damascus-a8307726.html

He was unable to find any victims of the incident on his regime guided tour of the city, and spoke to a doctor that wasn't there. Not entirely conclusive, but he does write well.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2018/chemical-attacks-syria/en/

[Deleted User]

GooberTheHat wrote:

legaldinho wrote:

Here is a report from Robert Fisk in Douma today

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-chemical-attack-gas-douma-robert-fisk-ghouta-damascus-a8307726.html

He was unable to find any victims of the incident on his regime guided tour of the city, and spoke to a doctor that wasn't there. Not entirely conclusive, but he does write well.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2018/chemical-attacks-syria/en/

Did you read the article? He was unchaperoned.

GooberTheHat

He was permitted access to the city, which means he was stage managed, whether he realised it or not.

[Deleted User]

He wrote that he left the stage manager thing. He had no minders. He was with his own crew. Was he lying?

Kow

Fisk has spent half his life living in the area, and has smarts and integrity coming out his ears. He's not dumb enough to fall for simple propaganda tricks, I'd say.

GooberTheHat

From the world health organisation

According to reports from Health Cluster partners, during the shelling of Douma on Saturday, an estimated 500 patients presented to health facilities exhibiting signs and symptoms consistent with exposure to toxic chemicals. In particular, there were signs of severe irritation of mucous membranes, respiratory failure and disruption to central nervous systems of those exposed.

I'm not saying he was lying, but I do suspect he was lied to.

GooberTheHat

So either the partners in country that the world health organisation have been working with and training for years lied to them, or the people Fisk spoke to lied to him.

GooberTheHat

It boils down to who you believe at the end of the day. I find the WHO account more credible.

Kow

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who are anti Assad, and regularly quoted by international bodies, also claimed the deaths were from suffocation.

http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=88805

GooberTheHat

The who spoke to the organisations that treated the patients, so I give more credibility to their assessment.

Kow

The WHO is essentially an American funded organisation that works hand in hand with the World Bank, the UN etc. Not wishing to discredit them or anything but they're hardly unbiased.

Howdy, Stranger!

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