Current Affairs - The Bear and Badger

GooberTheHat

LarryDavid wrote:

What are we gonna do anyway? Militarily, they’d stomp on us like an ant, let’s be honest.

That's why I mentioned art. 5. That would worry putin.

GooberTheHat wrote:

hylian_elf wrote:

Why is this a big thing? Or rather, why is it being made to be such a big thing?

The use of a chemical weapon on foreign soil of a country you are not at war with is hugely serious.

hylian_elf

LarryDavid wrote:

Because we need to have enemies in order to secure continued armed forces funding and military contracts?

Like being able to sell more Fighter jets to the Saudi scum for example, yeah?

Thanks Goobs. Is it the chemical weapon point that is more pertinent here? Cos I’m sure our guys would also try and silence someone committing, or trying to commit, treason no? (Which is what this Sergei bloke is alleged to be doing:trying?)

Excuse the ignorance; I don’t follow much news nowadays. Stopped a few years ago when I found it all made me depressed and paranoid.

GooberTheHat

hylian_elf wrote:

LarryDavid wrote:

Because we need to have enemies in order to secure continued armed forces funding and military contracts?

Like being able to sell more Fighter jets to the Saudi scum for example, yeah?

Thanks Goobs. Is it the chemical weapon point that is more pertinent here? Cos I’m sure our guys would also try and silence someone committing, or trying to commit, treason no? (Which is what this Sergei bloke is alleged to be doing:trying?)

Excuse the ignorance; I don’t follow much news nowadays. Stopped a few years ago when I found it all made me depressed and paranoid.

He had already committed treason, been arrested, tried, convicted and jailed in Russia. He was released to the UK as part of a prisoner swap.

GooberTheHat

And yeah, the attempted killing isn't (relatively speaking) hugely significant. Its the manner in which it was carried out.

hylian_elf

Ah thanks. Clearer.

nick_md

I think it's the collateral damage, or potential for it, that has caused outrage. It sounds like a very messy hit.

davyK

If the Russian's did this it wouldn't be a good move long term. If this guy was part of a deal (e.g. prisoner swap) then it's unlikely that they can try and go for a deal on down the line. If this guy was inactive then what would be the point?

Sending out a warning? Again - short sighted - it screws up future deals.

Maybe he had become active again - which would have broken any deal.

It could well have been a independent effort within their intelligence service and not necessarily ordered from the top.

Then again the hit could have been agreed (or at least a blind eye was to be turned) and they have made a pig's arse of it.

Stopharage

Skripal had already been punished for espionage and subsequently been pardoned. Seems a pardon counts for nothing in Putin's eyes.

For a foreign actor to behave so brazenly, suggests a total lack of respect for May's authority, Britain's values and law enforcement. Assassinating on foreign soil impacts on the perceived sovereignty of the nation state. May is also under added pressure as she was Home Secretary during the Litvinenko assassination, when the UK's response to the (likely) Russian action was seen as weak. Seems to me that it was done for a few reasons:-
1. To warn potential traitors, that Putin never forgets, pardon or not.
2. To flex Putin's power and perceived reach and the sheer efficiency and ruthlessness of the FSB.
3. To make the UK government look humiliated and to discredit May's rabble.
4. To increase fear of Russia to the UK, USA and their allies.
5. It shows a flagrant disregard for the loss of innocent life - the policeman aside, there could have been lots more citizens affected by this.
6. Raises the concern that not only can the UK government fail to protect its citizens overseas, it now can't protect them on home soil.
7. Why Skripal? Why not one of the many other Russian traitors housed elsewhere in Europe? Putin realises that the UK and May are in a bind because of the Brexit negotiations. For any kind of coordinated response to Russia, a joint EU effort is needed and at present we're increasingly ostracising ourselves. This attack is likely to further develop the growing division between us and the rest of Europe.

Caveat - that is if it were Russia. My conspiracy theorist mother believes it was either the US or MI5.

g.man

This had better not fuck up my Russian trip for the World Cup this summer.

good earners those

g.man

nick_md

davyK wrote:

If the Russian's did this it wouldn't be a good move long term. If this guy was part of a deal (e.g. prisoner swap) then it's unlikely that they can try and go for a deal on down the line. If this guy was inactive then what would be the point? Sending out a warning? Again - short sighted - it screws up future deals. Maybe he had become active again - which would have broken any deal. It could well have been a independent effort within their intelligence service and not necessarily ordered from the top. Then again the hit could have been agreed (or at least a blind eye was to be turned) and they have made a pig's arse of it.

I'm not ruling out non-state blundering, the sheer cack-handedness of it suggests it wasn't particularly a professional job, or could suggest that, at least. I'm sure the Russian state aren't too bothered about it, but surely they'd do a better job of whacking someone?

I dunno, I can fully believe Putin is behind this, but I need to see more analysis before I rule out an angry, vindictive past associate of the victim.

nick_md

Stopharage wrote:

Assassinating on foreign soil impacts on the perceived sovereignty of the nation state.

Without wanting to sound like an apologist, don't we do this all the time?

[Deleted User]

Stopharage wrote:

a total lack of respect for May's authority,

Surely not!

Stopharage

nick_md wrote:

Assassinating on foreign soil impacts on the perceived sovereignty of the nation state.

Without wanting to sound like an apologist, don't we do this all the time?

It's a different argument really. Our assassinations are justified as preventing subsequent bloodshed, whereas this was the attempted revenge killing of a supposedly pardoned man. I'm in no way justifying UK conduct but they are different actions.

nick_md

Stopharage wrote:

nick_md wrote:

Assassinating on foreign soil impacts on the perceived sovereignty of the nation state.

Without wanting to sound like an apologist, don't we do this all the time?

It's a different argument really. Our assassinations are justified as preventing subsequent bloodshed, whereas this was the attempted revenge killing of a supposedly pardoned man. I'm in no way justifying UK conduct but they are different actions.

Sure, I can definitely see that difference tbh. I can also see the difference with levelling a city block to hit one target

It's all different degrees of cuntishness, eh?

nick_md

Stopharage wrote:

Our assassinations are justified as preventing subsequent bloodshed

Hold on... reading that back, huh? How do you make that out?

I mean, I get there's a difference insomuch as we're at war with Islamists, and Russia isn't at war with it's former spies, but 'preventing subsequent bloodshed' is hardly the outcome of UK assassinations.

Diluted Dante

It's the aim though.

Stopharage

nick_md wrote:

Stopharage wrote:

Our assassinations are justified as preventing subsequent bloodshed

Hold on... reading that back, huh? How do you make that out? I mean, I get there's a difference insomuch as we're at war with Islamists, and Russia isn't at war with it's former spies, but 'preventing subsequent bloodshed' is hardly the outcome of UK assassinations.

I stated it was the justification, not the outcome. The government argue that the justification for our assassinations on foreign soil (drone attacks etc) is that they avoid subsequent loss of innocent life (terrorist attacks etc.).

Morally corrupt but that's the justification they go with.

nick_md

Okay I can at at least agree that the official aim is to avoid subsequent loss of innocent life.

That's it's worse to use that justification to level a tower block isn't something I'm going to get into.

Once again, just in case I'm misunderstood, the nerve agent assassination was not a good thing, and I don't condone it.

GooberTheHat

nick_md wrote:

davyK wrote:

If the Russian's did this it wouldn't be a good move long term. If this guy was part of a deal (e.g. prisoner swap) then it's unlikely that they can try and go for a deal on down the line. If this guy was inactive then what would be the point? Sending out a warning? Again - short sighted - it screws up future deals. Maybe he had become active again - which would have broken any deal. It could well have been a independent effort within their intelligence service and not necessarily ordered from the top. Then again the hit could have been agreed (or at least a blind eye was to be turned) and they have made a pig's arse of it.

I'm not ruling out non-state blundering, the sheer cack-handedness of it suggests it wasn't particularly a professional job, or could suggest that, at least. I'm sure the Russian state aren't too bothered about it, but surely they'd do a better job of whacking someone?

I dunno, I can fully believe Putin is behind this, but I need to see more analysis before I rule out an angry, vindictive past associate of the victim.

It is a Russian produced nerve agent. Either they did it, or someone managed to smuggle it out of one of their most secure top secret facilities and out of the country.

g.man

To be fair, you can probably get it on Amazon these days.

nick_md

GooberTheHat wrote:

nick_md wrote:

davyK wrote:

If the Russian's did this it wouldn't be a good move long term. If this guy was part of a deal (e.g. prisoner swap) then it's unlikely that they can try and go for a deal on down the line. If this guy was inactive then what would be the point? Sending out a warning? Again - short sighted - it screws up future deals. Maybe he had become active again - which would have broken any deal. It could well have been a independent effort within their intelligence service and not necessarily ordered from the top. Then again the hit could have been agreed (or at least a blind eye was to be turned) and they have made a pig's arse of it.

I'm not ruling out non-state blundering, the sheer cack-handedness of it suggests it wasn't particularly a professional job, or could suggest that, at least. I'm sure the Russian state aren't too bothered about it, but surely they'd do a better job of whacking someone? I dunno, I can fully believe Putin is behind this, but I need to see more analysis before I rule out an angry, vindictive past associate of the victim.

It is a Russian produced nerve agent. Either they did it, or someone managed to smuggle it out of one of their most secure top secret facilities and out of the country.

Hey I didn't say it wasn't a Russian person.

My only point was that we should wait to see some results and facts before striking up an international incident. I'm not taking sides.

GooberTheHat

Agreed. It's very unlikely Russia will admit that they couldn't keep a weapon of mass destruction secure, so that only leaves one option. That they sanctioned the assassination attempt.

hylian_elf

All seems like a game of chess.

nick_md

Ack I'm probably misrepresenting myself. I have a friend from Uni who's always 'why does everyone hate Russia, it's not Russia, fake news fake news!'. I'm not that guy, but I like to temper myself with a step back and look at how history has played out, what is likely etc.

The likely in this case, imo, is that someone from Russia bumped this guy off. Whether that's Putin or someone else, I don't know, but I'm sure Putin doesn't mind him being gone. That the whole Uk media has jumped on the tub-thumping bandwagon isn't helpful, imo, and I genuinely doubt we don't do similar, albeit better executed thing, ourselves. Both should cut the shit out, UK and Russia.

I'm probably not coming across very well here

djchump

Polonium and now nerve agents? They sure do go for the wacky shit, don't they. Next Russian hit on UK soil to use a basket full of angry, mutant piranha.

Brooks

Uhh dashcam laser I think you'll find.

GooberTheHat

nick_md wrote:

Ack I'm probably misrepresenting myself. I have a friend from Uni who's always 'why does everyone hate Russia, it's not Russia, fake news fake news!'. I'm not that guy, but I like to temper myself with a step back and look at how history has played out, what is likely etc.

The likely in this case, imo, is that someone from Russia bumped this guy off. Whether that's Putin or someone else, I don't know, but I'm sure Putin doesn't mind him being gone. That the whole Uk media has jumped on the tub-thumping bandwagon isn't helpful, imo, and I genuinely doubt we don't do similar, albeit better executed thing, ourselves. Both should cut the shit out, UK and Russia.

I'm probably not coming across very well here

I get what you're saying, but look at the attempted murder weapon. That's not something you can cook up in your kitchen. It is bioengineered it state laboratories. Russia is the only nation that produces that particular weapon. It is stored in the most secure of facilities.

Either it was sanctioned at highest level, or it wasn't sanctioned at all.

djchump

Brooks wrote:

Uhh dashcam laser I think you'll find.

Shot with a frozen vodka bullet, murder-mystery-stylee.

nick_md

GooberTheHat wrote:

nick_md wrote:

Ack I'm probably misrepresenting myself. I have a friend from Uni who's always 'why does everyone hate Russia, it's not Russia, fake news fake news!'. I'm not that guy, but I like to temper myself with a step back and look at how history has played out, what is likely etc. The likely in this case, imo, is that someone from Russia bumped this guy off. Whether that's Putin or someone else, I don't know, but I'm sure Putin doesn't mind him being gone. That the whole Uk media has jumped on the tub-thumping bandwagon isn't helpful, imo, and I genuinely doubt we don't do similar, albeit better executed thing, ourselves. Both should cut the shit out, UK and Russia. I'm probably not coming across very well here

I get what you're saying, but look at the attempted murder weapon. That's not something you can cook up in your kitchen. It is bioengineered it state laboratories. Russia is the only nation that produces that particular weapon. It is stored in the most secure of facilities. Either it was sanctioned at highest level, or it wasn't sanctioned at all.

Or there is a lot of corruption in Russia.

Both wouldn't surprise me, tbh.

nick_md

It's playing into Putin's hands tbh, I don't know what to think. That's the whole plan.

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