Thinking about it, a GE before a referendum makes sense. No it won't 'break the logjam' to borrow a phrase, but it seems likely that any GE whilst we're still in the EU will:

a) Reduce the number of Tories
b) Increase the number of Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MP's.

If the minor parties support Corbyn this then gives Labour the opportunity to officially request a renegotiation on a totally different set of red lines. The EU either agree, and then Labours deal is put to the public, or they don't and say May's deal or nothing. Labour won't bring Mays deal before the house, so if this happens its also a referendum.

It probably means that we'll need another GE post referendum, but at that point Brexit is no longer paralyzing politics and the maths changes again.

LivDiv wrote:

fuck business

That's the PM's policy though.

Violating a trade agreement.

Diluted Dante wrote:

Thinking about it, a GE before a referendum makes sense. No it won't 'break the logjam' to borrow a phrase, but it seems likely that any GE whilst we're still in the EU will:

a) Reduce the number of Tories
b) Increase the number of Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MP's.

If the minor parties support Corbyn this then gives Labour the opportunity to officially request a renegotiation on a totally different set of red lines. The EU either agree, and then Labours deal is put to the public, or they don't and say May's deal or nothing. Labour won't bring Mays deal before the house, so if this happens its also a referendum.

It probably means that we'll need another GE post referendum, but at that point Brexit is no longer paralyzing politics and the maths changes again.

So GE, referendum, GE?

Hours of fun. Sorry, no, months.

If there was ever a chance for the Monster Raving Loony Party to win a seat, that would be it.

I think we are no dealing now.
There are too many barriers, hoops and unconventional plays to get through.

Then the EU has to grant an extension. I feel like they will have used this past 6 months far better than ourselves to prepare for it, plus it was always only going to wound them slightly, not the full car crash into an acid bath while on fire that we face.
If it can't be shown that a GE has a high chance of resulting in a deal or at least a 2nd ref then I don't see why they would continue this charade much longer. There is nothing in the polling to suggest any party can gain a majority and a highly possible outcome is a Boris-Farage coalition which is just no deal anyway.

LivDiv wrote:

Maybe an EU wide recession may help us if it happens in the next 10 weeks.
At that point the fear of the whole thing toppling over under the weight of the alt right may mean we are worth keeping hold of.

Possibly, but I honestly don't think so. If the EU gives in at this point they snooker themselves for future negotiating (and remember this is just the withdrawal). Also the UK is so messed up over all this I'm not sure there is a point in them staying in so I don't see revoke solving this.

The only potential 'good' outcome is a withdrawal agreement as it would give each side something and mitigate the damage to an extent. And that looks to be gone as an option.

On the point of the EU being more ready, mainland EU might be but I deal with 3 business in the North, they have no clear idea on what happens come November 1st. And the Irish government doesn't want to be seen to be putting even a potential barrier up on the border until it absolutely has to so preparations on this side have also been low key.

We are heading into one wonderful mess.

What really.....really...annoys me is that no matter whatever happens over the next month or so - if there is a vote - be it GE or ref - there will be morons who sit on their arse instead of voting.

Apathy is the biggest enemy. It's what got us into this bloody mess in the first place.  It is also why we in NI keep returning two bunches of extremist arseholes.

The centre needs to get off its FUCKING collective arse.

No matter what the outcome, even if there is decisive block vote of ignorance, I would accept it because at least everyone got off their fat arse and voted.  And maybe if they made up their mind to do so , they just might try and not be ignorant before placing their X.

For any sane deal-based outcome, it's special status for NI (Cons need to replace DUP for that - 10 votes)  OR stay in the customs union and single market. Means we tolerate ECJ for trading but we would have to do that with any kind of deal anyhow.

But option 2 means no say in the rules - revoking article 50 would be better than that. So it's no deal or special status for NI.

....but ANY deal with EU from outside means we have to tolerate ECJ (?)

I'm flip flapping as I think out loud here.

So special NI zone or call the whole thing off.

It would make working in NI an interesting proposition. There could be a pile of opportunities for folk acting as import/exporter.

The big issue would be chances of a United Ireland which could well stoke some fires that are smouldering though.

RedDave2 wrote:

The big issue would be chances of a United Ireland which could well stoke some fires that are smouldering though.

That's true but those issues will happen regardless of the UK leaving with the current WA, no deal or the special NI zone. That cat is well out of the bag now.

Sigh.

Aye.

There goes my house price !!!

This is the first time in my life at 53 where I have thought if I could fuck off to Canada or Aus I would give it serious consideration. Not so much the Brexit thing but the current poisonous status here in NI. It really is starting to feel very unpleasant for me.

I have had it up to the back teeth with bonfires, marches , flags, organised crime and all the other fucking nonsense here.  The vacuum is slowly being filled by some very nasty people.

What happens with the fact that leaving with no deal is a clear breach of the GFA? Does that leave a legal mess, government getting sued etc, on top of obvious risk to crap happening locally as a result & serious Disney on the US etc...?

LivDiv wrote:

As for the Banks joke.
He really should be getting police visits for drumming up violence.

Imagine if Choudary said it.

Excellent reply: https://twitter.com/UweBollocks/status/1161772366709571584?s=09

davyK wrote:

It would make working in NI an interesting proposition. There could be a pile of opportunities for folk acting as import/exporter.

The big issue would be chances of a United Ireland which could well stoke some fires that are smouldering though.

A united Ireland is absolutely inevitable, best make your peace with it asap.

Swinson’s at least agreed to meet Corbyn, but still says she won’t back him. Progress of a sort.

What’s left of Change UK currently non-committal.

So remember when Govey (that’s what we call him in my line of work cos legend obvs) said that getting education standards up could be in part achieved by moving to a more linear assessment model? Well today we saw the fruits of that. The headlines will tell you that the pass rate has stayed largely the same but get this, to pass (grade E) A-level maths you needed...

...it’s worth waiting for...


...14.3%!

Previous spec was around 40% for a pass.