The British Politics Thread - The Bear and Badger

LarryDavid

dynamiteReady wrote:

Why does Johnson and his cabinet still appear to believe that the UK will leave the EU without a deal?

Because their hedge fund backers are counting on it?

LivDiv

The main reason I can see is to fit the People vs Parliament narrative.
He will take it to the line to show how he was forced to do it "under duress".

That line will be played out in the inevitable GE in the hope he can get majority or Tory-Farage coalition. They will then block a Benn act v.2.0, ensuring we leave without a deal by January 31st, might even push for a commons vote to leave without a deal before xmas.

hunk

LivDiv wrote:

The main reason I can see is to fit the People vs Parliament narrative. He will take it to the line to show how he was forced to do it "under duress". That line will be played out in the inevitable GE in the hope he can get majority or Tory-Farage coalition. They will then block a Benn act v.2.0, ensuring we leave without a deal by January 31st, might even push for a commons vote to leave without a deal before xmas.

Aye, his strategy is exactly this. It's his plan B after the botched prorogation. If he gets ousted by a VONC he's hoping the Tories will win the next ge on above grounds thus strengtening his mandate.
It's a setup for the upcoming stabbed in the back campaign.

AndCallMeCharlie

fair, possibly the hedge fund /31st of Oct bit is a red herring - the real crunch is 31st of Jan where EU regulations kick in regarding offshore accounts.

AndCallMeCharlie

Also for the GE, labor should solely target Cummings. Make it all about him, forget Johnson no matter what you have on him large swathes of the public love him, Cummings on the other hand is relatively unkown and can't do lovable rouge (or any persona bar glib wank imo).

Yossarian

I still reckon Johnson would rather have a deal than not. All of this stuff about banking regs and short positions is a bit of a red herring, IMO.

AndCallMeCharlie

Agreed but no way is any deal getting through parliament without a GE and probably even afterwards

monkey

Good job that Corbyn is going to get suddenly popular for some reason and save us from a Tory majority.

RamSteelwood

Yossarian wrote:

I still reckon Johnson would rather have a deal than not. All of this stuff about banking regs and short positions is a bit of a red herring, IMO.

You would think he'd be making a bit more effort to get one

LivDiv

Javid's fucking money tree is sickening.
All of these things that people have been crying out for over the past decade and suddenly the cunts can commit to it all. Worst of all while peddling No Deal Brexit, which if happens really would mean there is no money for them.

Just promise the world, get it over the line then they can all fuck off to corporate jobs in a few years reaping the benefits of not having the EU nosing in on their taxes.

Yossarian

RamSteelwood wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

I still reckon Johnson would rather have a deal than not. All of this stuff about banking regs and short positions is a bit of a red herring, IMO.

You would think he'd be making a bit more effort to get one

That entirely depends on how much he’d prefer a deal over no deal.

Diluted Dante

monkey wrote:

Good job that Corbyn is going to get suddenly popular for some reason and save us from a Tory majority.

You realise Labour were leading in the polls prior to the change of PM right?

Reality hasnt caught up with Johnson yet.

LivDiv

Javid's living wage.

£10.50 to Labour's £10.
That is what the headlines will focus on and those at that rate can't turn down an extra 50p.

Of course it ignores that Javid's will aim to be at that level by 2024 and would be for anyone 21+.

Labour pledged to be at £10 by 2020 and for anyone 18+.

The plebs won't read the detail though will they Uncle Tom.

Diluted Dante

If Labour are clever they will get an ad showing what their rate would be on inflation alone.

I don't think it's ever gone up by less than 50p over 4 years.

LarryDavid

They do it every election, pull out the bribes and insist ‘this time it’ll be different, those ten years we made you suffer well it won’t happen again, we’ve learnt our lesson...’

And it’ll be reported absolutely straightfaced, as if these types of cynical con tricks haven’t been rolled out a hundred times before, or been gone back on as soon as they regain power.

Armitage_Shankburn

LivDiv wrote:

Javid's living wage.

£10.50 to Labour's £10.
That is what the headlines will focus on and those at that rate can't turn down an extra 50p.

Of course it ignores that Javid's will aim to be at that level by 2024 and would be for anyone 21+.

Labour pledged to be at £10 by 2020 and for anyone 18+.

The plebs won't read the detail though will they Uncle Tom.

Which by 2024 will be much more than 10.50. just pass that around.

LivDiv

£10.81 by Labour's estimate.
Then there is also the fact Labour's policy will involve a large leap to begin with which is obviously preferable.

Armitage_Shankburn

This is very good news. And a reason why having a corbynite Labour party as a threat is a good thing. I don't have time to elaborate for those for whom this isn't 1+1 = 2... But look at Sanders and Amazon pay. This is why we do this. Ask for more, get more anyway. Then campaign on who really got it for you, who is best to keep going, finish the fight etc.

LivDiv

Yeah that is certainly a positive way of looking at it, providing whoever it is does actually deliver. At least they are having to pitch it.

monkey

Diluted Dante wrote:

monkey wrote:

Good job that Corbyn is going to get suddenly popular for some reason and save us from a Tory majority.

You realise Labour were leading in the polls prior to the change of PM right?

Reality hasnt caught up with Johnson yet.

Uh huh.

Diluted Dante

No, you're right, we have indeed reached the legally imposed deadline where he has to request an extension.

monkey

Forcing him to request an extension on threat of imprisonment may not be the trump card you think it is.

It gets him completely off the hook. It plays right into his strategy. And if he thinks people won’t side with him on it he can always resign as PM.

RedDave2

If BJ goes to prison on this, does it fall on the deputy prime minister (or whatever that role is) to follow the law?

Diluted Dante

There was chat about a senior civil servant having to do it.

Armitage_Shankburn

The French will say no in that case

Diluted Dante

Then we invade.

Yossarian

I wouldn’t expect France to say no. The EU as a whole and France specifically have both said that avoiding a no deal Brexit is a good enough reason to extend A50. This wouldn’t quite be what they had in mind when they said that, but I think that as long as it’s legal it would be approved, especially if extending is in Ireland’s best interests.

If Varadkar decides he’s had enough of this shit, then that’s the point where an extension could be refused.

LivDiv

I dont think the EU will ever want it to be perceived that a no deal was their doing, danger that way lies.
However I think if we have an election and the Tories win standing on a "do or die" manifesto they will deem it our choice and they won't back any more extensions.

January 31st is it imho.
As for Boris getting arrested, wont happen, he wont take it that far.

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

and France specifically have both said that avoiding a no deal Brexit is a good enough reason to extend A50.

Where has Macron said that?

Yossarian

Reported in the Telegraph, paywalled but quoted here:

https://legalinsurrection.com/2019/08/frances-macron-eu-ready-to-scrap-deadline-to-avoid-no-deal-brexit/

Howdy, Stranger!

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