Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers - The Bear and Badger

Yossarian

Yerp.

Yossarian

I wonder if Obama stating the obvious will shift opinion.

[Deleted User]

Telling Britain it could fuck off if it voted to leave wasn't that obvious.

Yossarian

It wasn't?

[Deleted User]

Not really. Giving an opinion is one thing but threats are different.

Diluted Dante

Is it a threat, or is it an honest assessment of what will likely happen?

Yossarian

It didn't come across as a threat to me, I thought it was more of a reality check in regards to a post-Brexit trading position. Of course the US isn't going to be rushing into a trade deal with us, they have far more pressing concerns when it comes to trade.

mistercrayon

How can it not be a threat? Obama or the prez is in full control as to how infront the queue the UK would be in terms of negotiating trade deals with the US.

Yossarian

It's not a threat to say "we won't put your national interest ahead of our own by proritising something which brings us few benefits ahead of something that brings us many". It's common sense.

Yossarian

"Why don't you turn down those deals that will make you lots of money in exchange for this one that makes you little but me a lot?"

"I don't think so, maybe after these other deals are done, yeah?"

"Are you threatening me?"

[Deleted User]

mistercrayon

Common sense and that's just how it works. Very good.

[Deleted User]

Of course it's a threat, and an empty one at that.

Yossarian

Are those supposed to be counter-arguments?

Yossarian

I mean, why do you expect that the US would give us preferential treatment on this? Why should they?

mistercrayon

Amused me how close the rhetoric was to tory bollocks when unemployed people get fucked.

mistercrayon

Like I said its very likely in the prerogative of the president to decide what the priorities are of his country.

mistercrayon

In fact it's almost as if his government that instigated Ttip doesn't want one of the big four countries of the Eu to be excluded from such a deal.

Yossarian

mistercrayon wrote:

Like I said its very likely in the prerogative of the president to decide what the priorities are of his country.

Well, for one, Obama won't be president when this deal is being done, for another, that still doesn't explain in any way why he should set these priorities any differently so why this would be considered a threat.

mistercrayon

So how can he say for sure that Britain would be back of the queue? Either he has the power to choose the priorities in which case he projects a negative consequence to a potential action (aka a threat) or he has no power in which case he is speculating on a negative consequence based on a particular action (aka a threat)

I suppose you have to ask the question; does America see only zero value in Britain as a non eu member. I'd argue Britain will hold enough value to America even out of the EU that there would have to be negotiations.

Yossarian

Again, what are you basing that on? What can we offer the US other than access to a relatively tiny market? What possible reason would any president have for wanting to prioritise access to this tiny market? It's not like we have crucial resources or products that the rest of the world can't either get elsewhere or just live with paying tariffs on. Is this simply based on the fact that both countries speak English?

mistercrayon

If Britain was that unimportant then why doesn't the EU just tell us to fuck off already.

GooberTheHat

mistercrayon wrote:

In fact it's almost as if his government that instigated Ttip doesn't want one of the big four countries of the Eu to be excluded from such a deal.

The Tories back ttip anyway, so I can see us being out of the EU stopping us adopting it.

Yossarian

mistercrayon wrote:

If Britain was that unimportant then why doesn't the EU just tell us to fuck off already.

So, no reason for the US to want a trade deal with us then.

As for the EU, I think many people in it wish we would just fuck off already. Obviously, diplomacy stops them from coming out and saying it, but I think that if we voted to leave, more people would be pleased than upset.

GooberTheHat

I don't think that's quite true Yoss. As annoying as we are Europeans seem quite sensible and understand that the EU is better off with us in than not.

g.man

We don't seem to do very well in The Eurovision Song Contest anymore. That's obviously the best aggregator for this question.

mistercrayon

Yossarian wrote:

mistercrayon wrote:

If Britain was that unimportant then why doesn't the EU just tell us to fuck off already.

So, no reason for the US to want a trade deal with us then. As for the EU, I think many people in it wish we would just fuck off already. Obviously, diplomacy stops them from coming out and saying it, but I think that if we voted to leave, more people would be pleased than upset.

I have no idea what you are arguing now.

I am saying: if we were unimportant to the EU then they would not have made a song and dance about trying to keep us in. CLEARLY therefore we add value to the EU. If we add value to the EU then we must have some inherent value to the US that is independent of being in the EU.

Diluted Dante

The US will prioritise trade deals with places that give it the biggest benifit. The UK when tied in with the other 27 countries in the EU give a collective clout that means the US will prioritise them.

The UK on it's own lacks this clout. They will prioritise Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, South Korea, and yes, the EU over a solo UK. They are probably also looking at Brazil and India as emerging markets that they want to make sure they have the best access to, plus ensuring they are on board with OPEC countries.

Yossarian

mistercrayon wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

mistercrayon wrote:

If Britain was that unimportant then why doesn't the EU just tell us to fuck off already.

So, no reason for the US to want a trade deal with us then. As for the EU, I think many people in it wish we would just fuck off already. Obviously, diplomacy stops them from coming out and saying it, but I think that if we voted to leave, more people would be pleased than upset.

I have no idea what you are arguing now.

I am saying: if we were unimportant to the EU then they would not have made a song and dance about trying to keep us in. CLEARLY therefore we add value to the EU. If we add value to the EU then we must have some inherent value to the US that is independent of being in the EU.

I'd respond that one: I haven't seen that much of a song and dance. Cameron's negotiations amounted to pretty much fuck all and two: what value people see in keeping us in might be less to do with whatever value we supposedly add and more to do with keeping the entire European project on track. Many believe that Britain voting to leave would spell the end of the EU entirely as other countries start to follow suit.

As for what we add to Europe which we can't add to America, we do have a very large and strong economy in comparison to other European countries. Us leaving Europe would certainly make a difference to it as a trading bloc and for the money we bring in. None of that makes any difference to America or anyone else. When it comes to trade deals there are two things to consider: the size of the market and whether that market can offer key products or materials. We don't score well on either point.

monkey

Yup. To have a chance we'd need to specialise in an industry that the US doesn't also see as one of its big earners ie not finance.

We're a gateway to Europe for the US. Without that, we're just a small fry competitor nation in the financial industry.

Howdy, Stranger!

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