There will he a deal though. The level playing field is the real sticking point.
He will throw the fishermen under the bus and at the end of the day nobody really gives a shit about them.
He will sign up to something on level playing field and then just break the rules agreed to. The EU will tut and then faint in their seats when he continues to break them despite warnings.

ITV news have got hold of the gov reports stating by fact there will be food and medicine delays with no deal.

Its out there in the open in the government's words now.

Yes this is old news which should really bring home how terrifying the situation should be but somehow isn’t.

This thread summed it up nicely for me: it’s not “just” short(ish) term supply chain catastofuckery or longer term price rises, it’s everything substantial which truly affects an economy: investment, trust, capital, opportunity. A no deal more than anything will reduce this nation to third rate “who cares what they think or do” nation, run by incompetents voted in by deluded nationalists, who have no need to be taken seriously.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1335504575860760578

Well, I think she published it in the Observer, but point taken.

LivDiv wrote:

poprock wrote:

Carole Cadwalladr published the same report a fortnight ago. Nobody paid any attention.

Thats because nobody knows who she is. Bit different to the lead anchor announcing the lead story on Sunday evening ITV.

The media know who she is, so it's surprising it toiok this long to be picked up.

Davey Henig, management consultant extraordinaire.

Lord_Griff wrote:

Davey Henig, management consultant extraordinaire.

Got an alternative take we could enjoy?

It's looking more like a deal to me right now, my earlier doom and gloom fading, albeit slightly.

Gov have announced they'll "drop" the contentious "break international law" clauses of the bill they've just, erm, voted through is the first obvious climbdown / U-turn.

Next it'll be fish (some kind of phased access rights which will be sold as a massive victory) because they obviously don't actually care about fish.

Finally we'll get "tariff free" trading by bending over backwards and taking the state aid and governance rules just the way the EU like them, and again it'll be sold as the best rogering the UK has ever had, luckily it'd cooled down a bit from the oven but this is a fabulous deal, we stood firm despite those frogs etc etc.

Bohnson off to Brussels for his pegging, and we should be just about OK*

* : OK in this context meaning we're not completely shafted as a country, just lost loads of rights, protections, GDP, investment and trust in return for "sovereignty"

Not sure the EU will fly with that.
I understand the UK conceded a transition on fishing but that has some logic as we won't suddenly have the boats and crews come January 1st.

Bohnson breaking the rules one by one over the next 4 years I can well believe.

I can't see that being a thing, actually.

The real sticking point in negotiations (the bit which Bohnson refers to emotively, when he says "But there are just limits beyond which no sensible, independent government or country could go and people have got to understand that"), is governance, or dispute resolution. Being held to account by the EU, or an "independent" tribunal when UK is seen to have broken rules they've signed up to.

It underpins every difficulty: they'd sign up to state aid restrictions if, as you say, they thought they could get away with breaking them without serious consequence (imo breaking treaty always comes with serious consequences, as others simply won't trust you and deal with you).

So, no - I don't think the EU would sign up to a deal with Bohnson which their experts felt he had even a slight chance of breaking any part of, without serious consequences baked in.

Her Majesty's Government - It's Stupid.

We were never going to break the law. It was a desperate, and a desperately poor, "negotiating" "tactic" designed to whip up support from Brexiteers. Everyone who voted for it should be ashamed, however transparent it was.

As for Hungary, Poland. You're talking about political ideologies. And there is still considerable pressure on Poland and Hungary. But when it comes to economics and trade...The EU will come down harder than you can imagine on trade transgressions.

Christ. That would have unimaginably cynical just a few years ago

Different world innit.
We will be paying for that dinner as well, meanwhile Gav gets a sweaty bap.

Conspiracy theory:

It makes sense for the negotiations to go to the wire for Johnson, if he agrees deal, because the Jan 1 deadline gives low chance for Labour and Tory rebels less time to play hardball like the did with May.