Let's have an argument - Argh it keeps recurring!
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Brought forward. Moved back.
It’s because the two terms have been mixed up that there’s confusion. -
This definitely belongs in this pile of wank thread.
I cant be arsed to forumalte it into a question.
In a group of 23 people there is a 50-50 chance 2 will share a birthday
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bring-science-home-probability-birthday-paradox/ -
What's there to argue about? -
Shit. I should have formed it into a question with half the detail missing or contradictory.
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That's the spirit.
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I like the bit of trivia that if you shuffle a deck of cards, it's pretty much guaranteed that you will have a unique combination/sequence of cards never before seen in the history of cards. Mental.
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Yeah I like that one.nick_md wrote:I like the bit of trivia that if you shuffle a deck of cards, it's pretty much guaranteed that you will have a unique combination/sequence of cards never before seen in the history of cards. Mental.
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I can’t believe the abuse scientific American is giving to the word paradox there.
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LivDiv wrote:In a group of 23 people there is a 50-50 chance 2 will share a birthday
This doesn't seem particularly surprising to me. -
I've met more than 23 people and none have had the same birthday as me, so explain that, Ironside.
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I find the odds of 50/50 kind of odd to hold in my head.
On the one hand it’s a very comprehensible odds. And if you toss a coin you can understand how often a side will show up. But I think this can mislead me into feeling that 50/50 is more often than it actually is (for example I’d never bet my house on a fifty fifty) -
nick_md wrote:I've met more than 23 people and none have had the same birthday as me, so explain that, Ironside.
Yeah but the point is they also might have shared birthdays with each other... -
Yossarian wrote:Friday popped into my head upon first reading it, I had to stop and think a moment to realise it was Monday. My concept of time is shaky at best.
I approve of this lifestyle. Most of the relaxed people I know say Friday and those with more stressful jobs tend to be correct."Plus he wore shorts like a total cunt" - Bob -
I doubt a teacher would ever get that wrong."Plus he wore shorts like a total cunt" - Bob
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monkey wrote:Brought forward. Moved back. It’s because the two terms have been mixed up that there’s confusion.
Catching up on this thread. I thought Monday immediately but the also noted the incorrect terminology.I am a FREE. I am not MAN. A NUMBER. -
LivDiv wrote:What if they were on a conveyor belt?
They would take off.
Just to loop back a bit to the OP topic; I was persuaded and I even convinced myself that I'd royally fucked up the question somehow, but I've long since realised that it's basically fine. The detail doesn't really matter, in almost any realistic scenario the plane will be able to take off on a conveyor belt. You guys were supposed to do the work to figure out if anything would prevent it from doing so, but most got stuck on the assumption that it would be prevented from moving forward.
The only major thing I might add to the question is: "...can the plane move forward and take off", by making the question of the possibility for it to move forward implicit that might perhaps have have led a few more people to examine the problem a bit more.
The overarching theme for this thread should be 'deeply unintuitive truths'. There's something really interesting about how our minds often lead us to an incorrect conclusion. -
acemuzzy wrote:nick_md wrote:I've met more than 23 people and none have had the same birthday as me, so explain that, Ironside.
Yeah but the point is they also might have shared birthdays with each other...
But my birthday is the same as less that 23 of them when thinking about a 12 month list. If you then factor in the full 364 then it's clear as day. Think on, son.
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It’s an odd one. Literally met hundreds of people over the years whose birthdays I was aware of and none shared my birthday.I am a FREE. I am not MAN. A NUMBER.
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Me and Saddam Hussien are birthday bros. I miss that scoundrel, he had the best partys."Plus he wore shorts like a total cunt" - Bob
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nick_md wrote:I don't understand how anyone lands on Friday for it but I guess it's like some people see blue and black, some people see white and gold or whatever.
If a meeting is moved forward, it comes toward you, right? I think if you phrased it 'brought forward' more people may say Monday.
I reckon it's a lot to do with the language you're used to using in your life. I instinctively knew it was Monday simply because I'm now used to work conversations along the lines of "Let's bring this forward/ move it back".
When I first got all of those timetabling responsibilities I remember getting it wrong a few times.
PSN : time_on_my_hands -
hylian_elf wrote:It’s an odd one. Literally met hundreds of people over the years whose birthdays I was aware of and none shared my birthday.
Never met someone with my birthday, but in my department which actually did number 23 at one point, we had two people sharing a birthday.
PSN : time_on_my_hands -
hylian_elf wrote:It’s an odd one. Literally met hundreds of people over the years whose birthdays I was aware of and none shared my birthday.
I'm jealous. I think I know about 15."Plus he wore shorts like a total cunt" - Bob -
Interesting stuff. Probabilities are often really tough to intuit - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
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And here's the probability of a match for your birthday (q(n))-
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I think the trap is focusing on one specific person matching any one other. Which would take a room of 366, the one specific person then another person for every day of the year (ignoring leap year 29th Feb freaks).
Then 50-50 so halve that number. -
I would also imagine outside of maths irl there are more children conceived at certain times of year than others as well.
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LivDiv wrote:I think the trap is focusing on one specific person matching any one other. Which would take a room of 366, the one specific person then another person for every day of the year (ignoring leap year 29th Feb freaks).
Then 50-50 so halve that number.
Yeah if you've got 23 people in a room, there are 23*22/2=253 pairs of people. Which is quite a lot really. And each of those pairs has 1/365 chance of being a match. So you'd expect 253/365 matching birthdays, on average.
I can't work if nick is now trolling though, lol
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