Politics of the Free - It’s because Democrats, stupid. - The Bear and Badger

Yossarian

There does seem a lot of talk around about how this overspending never affected the referendum result, but public opinion did shift over the campaign period with the polls getting tighter and tighter towards election day. It would be odd if this wasn’t at least partially caused by the money being poured into these campaigns.

acemuzzy

Impossible to quantify. But they wouldn't have bothered if they didn't think there was at least a chance.

hunk

Was reading up on the US' own fascinating history of rigging foreign elections.
If there's one institute who's capable of orchestrating and spotting election fraud it's the CIA.

Diluted Dante

It didnt change anything, which is why they spent all that money on it.

WorKid

That's a weird argument.

Anyway my argument is that all this focus on Cambridge Analytica, Russia, Facebook etc misses the actual story regarding Trump and Brexit. Maybe it had an impact. I doubt it swung anything measurable in the UK. In the US the email server was a problem, but I don't know if it moved enough from D to R. People seemed pretty set by then. Thinner margins there of course.

There are very real, very tangible reasons why people turned to Trump, to UKIP, to leaving the EU, to draining the swamp. Any liberal ignoring that is in real danger of getting caught out again next time round, which would be hugely careless verging on stupid.

djchump

“Economic anxiety”?

Yossarian

Wrong, guess again.

hunk

WorKid wrote:

That's a weird argument. Anyway my argument is that all this focus on Cambridge Analytica, Russia, Facebook etc misses the actual story regarding Trump and Brexit. Maybe it had an impact. I doubt it swung anything measurable in the UK. In the US the email server was a problem, but I don't know if it moved enough from D to R. People seemed pretty set by then. Thinner margins there of course. There are very real, very tangible reasons why people turned to Trump, to UKIP, to leaving the EU, to draining the swamp. Any liberal ignoring that is in real danger of getting caught out again next time round, which would be hugely careless verging on stupid.

Totally agree with your points.
Although, with the political discourse we're on atm I'm not entirely sure democracy and the liberal left (especially in the US) will get a fair second chance.
It's a slippery slope going down.....

Yossarian

The problem isn’t that liberals aren’t aware of these things, the issue is that it’s very tricky to find a way to address them. These are complex issues with complex answers, your Trumps and Farages offer up simple solutions which are far easier for people to latch onto and understand even if they are wrong.

WorKid

Agree, but there needs to be some effort expended.

The only solution the Democrats seem to be offering right now is We're not Trump.

Yossarian

Well yes, but this is kind of how things go in US politics, the dems’ platform will come out of the next primaries. Without a leader, it’s tricky to have much of a platform.

JonB

WorKid wrote:

Agree, but there needs to be some effort expended. The only solution the Democrats seem to be offering right now is We're not Trump.

The centrists don't have anything to offer anymore other than carry on the way it was before and trust the elite to manage things. A scare campaign might be just enough after 4 years of Trump, but it won't be long before the next nutjob comes along and beats them again.

JonB

There really does seem to be a whole political class in the UK and US, occupying most of the positions in mainstream politics and media, that's been taught there's only one way to run a country. And since that went wrong 10 years ago they've had nothing to offer except telling us how bad all the other alternatives are.

Privatisation, deregulation, low taxes, keep a bit of welfare going, wait for the growth and the trickle down. That's what the economics books all said so it must be right. Nothing else works. It's all about management or you end up with totalitarianism. And when the economy crashes (that wasn't supposed to happen)? Just keep going, get things back on track. Everyone stop complaining about being poorer. This is how it works. It's the only way.

pantyfire

OMG this.

They seem to think the system we have is the only system that works. No, it's just the system we have at the moment.

Yossarian

This was quite the story:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/24/students-post-crash-economics

GooberTheHat

Companies spend millions of pounds each year on marketing because it has no effect whatsoever.

monkey

A lot of things were the thing that tipped the result over the line though. If Boris Johnson hadn’t joined Leave, if Cameron wasn’t so untrustworthy, if Leave hadn’t lied, if Leave hadn’t cheated. There’s probably 2-3 percentage points in all of those. But it’s all built on a bedrock of solid ignorance and stupidity that’s been decades in the making.

hunk

As history shows populism, ignorance and stupidity go hand in hand. Brexit and Trump are just the icing on the cake.

I_R

GooberTheHat wrote:

Companies spend millions of pounds each year on marketing because it has no effect whatsoever.

Shady social media marketing during a campaign is going to be pretty insignificant against decades of newspaper and TV messaging though.

JonB

monkey wrote:

A lot of things were the thing that tipped the result over the line though. If Boris Johnson hadn’t joined Leave, if Cameron wasn’t so untrustworthy, if Leave hadn’t lied, if Leave hadn’t cheated. There’s probably 2-3 percentage points in all of those. But It’s all built on a bedrock of solid ignorance and stupidity that’s been decades in the making.

Yep, and same goes for the US. They've spent decades reducing politics to buzzwords, soundbites and personalities. And then Trump comes along with his moronic buzzwords, soundbites and personality that touch a nerve with some people, and the lack of substance doesn't matter anymore.

GooberTheHat

I_R wrote:

GooberTheHat wrote:

Companies spend millions of pounds each year on marketing because it has no effect whatsoever.

Shady social media marketing during a campaign is going to be pretty insignificant against decades of newspaper and TV messaging though.

Not insignificant when there is only a few percentage points in it.

WorKid

I find the argument that someone thought it would be effective therefore it must have been effective a pretty weak one.

GooberTheHat

It's a reduction because the nuanced argument is dismissed.

hunk

Does it really matter which component of the leave campaign was more efficient? What matters is the additive synergistic effect pushing the leave vote into the majority. For all we know online may have delivered 5-10% of the leave vote. It may look like a tiny effect but it was enough for them to gain the upper hand.

The numbers are speculation to drive home a point. Only FB and CA are able to determine the effectiveness of the online campaign. And yeah, leave had a very solid foundation to work with. All they had to do was add fuel to an already smouldering fire and watch it grow. This is how populism operates.

Unlikely

hunk wrote:

Only FB and CA are able to determine the effectiveness of the online campaign.

How?

hunk

Clicks, metrics and stuff.
Not even sure the db is still there.

But yeah, it would be a patchy assessment.

GooberTheHat

Unlikely wrote:

hunk wrote:

Only FB and CA are able to determine the effectiveness of the online campaign.

How?

Engagement rate, and behavioral change following viewing/engaging with relevant content.

Unlikely

Sounds terribly wooly.

GooberTheHat

It is to a degree, but when you consider all the data face collects on its users its actually quite easy for them to predict political affiliation/intentions.

GooberTheHat

That can stay, face is omnipotent.

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