RedDave2 wrote:

My worry isn't the elections, its if some bunch of nutjobs decide to have a mini January 6th and it sparks a fire across the US.

Huge implications for 2024 election integrity w/Ds winning governorships in PA/MI likely WI and possibly AZ. Considering Kemp in GA has staked his image on upholding vote, that would potentially keep election deniers from governorship in all 5 Trump 16/Biden 20 states.

LivDiv wrote:

Not currently looking good for Lauren Boebart.
That is good news. Hopefully she will be hoofed out.

GooberTheHat wrote:

Her and Marjorie Taylor Green. Is she up for election too?

Kow wrote:

Down to the wire for the senate. My gut tells me the Dems won't be lucky here.

Yossarian wrote:

Most places still seem to be calling the senate for Democrats. Republicans had to flip one seat, so far they’ve flipped zero and lost one. Democrats only need to win two of the four seats yet to declare, Republicans need three.

It feels like Dems will take the senate to me.

LivDiv wrote:

The main positive here is that regardless of how things end up sitting the red wave hasn't happened. Even better it has been the particularly ghoulish MAGA candidates that have lost out most. The distancing from Trump by Reps has already begun. It still migth leave the Reps with the House and maybe the Senate, probably a Rep President in 2024 and it's not like the Dems are considerably better. This alt-right grift appears to be running out of steam.

Funkstain wrote:

LivDiv wrote:

The main positive here is that regardless of how things end up sitting the red wave hasn't happened. Even better it has been the particularly ghoulish MAGA candidates that have lost out most. The distancing from Trump by Reps has already begun. It still migth leave the Reps with the House and maybe the Senate, probably a Rep President in 2024 and it's not like the Dems are considerably better. This alt-right grift appears to be running out of steam.

What I take from this is that Biden is under-rated, as well as Trump (and Trumpism) over-rated. The reality continues to be that Trump sells media, so still gets an inordinate amount of attention (inordinate = because his picks, as if he were actually relevant, got fucked) and Biden, who's mostly a boring capable president, doesn't so there's this vacuum of information about him, positive or negative - but success is measured in clicks these days, so he's seen as unsuccessful despite actually passing a bill of some substance

First, President Biden’s job approval among voters was higher than among the public. Exit polls gave Biden a 44 percent job approval, about 2 points higher than the major polling aggregators’ averages. That difference alone would have tempered my predictions.

But that wasn’t the main factor. Instead, Democrats did something no one has done in decades: Do well with voters who somewhat disapprove of the president. I noted the importance of this group in a summertime column, writing that since 2006, the president’s party has lost this group by 20 points or more in every midterm House generic ballot exit poll. On Tuesday, Democrats won among this demographic by 4 points, according to exit polling.

Both of these factors combined to add a few points onto what I estimated for Democrats’ vote share. Instead of losing by 5.5 percent, the exit polls suggest they will lose it by about 2.5 percent — right at the polling aggregators’ average for the generic congressional ballot. At that level, predicting a GOP Senate gain of one or two seats would have been the right call.