Diluted Dante wrote:

I'm not so sure on that. I mean we're still in the position of it being a generally held belief that Labour were the cause of a worldwide recession, because an MP left a vaguely amusing post it note for his successor.

Labour were in power. Labour overspend. Labour left a note saying all the monies have gone. These are simple things that all feed into each other and Labour didn't bother defending themselves against it properly. It would take a far more convoluted and implausible chain of reasoning to place the blame for Brexit at Labour's door.

Except that they didn't, the Tories and the papers just said they did. I'm not saying that it's as simple as that, but I don't see it as a dead cert that this would all be placed squarely at the Tories door. Especially if May can't deliver the mandate she said she needs.

It wasn't clear but I was referring to the widely held belief that they are habitual overspenders, not what the actual numbers were at the time. 

If May doesn't get a majority, she'll be gone and they'll probably have Boris Johnson in charge and another election. If she clung on and, for some reason, brought Labour into the mix on Brexit, then maybe they could be a scapegoat. That would be a trap and one that Labour should stay away from.

They will say they were elected with a majority on their manifesto and now have a clear mandate from the British people on their brexit plans.

I don't think anyone is denying that. It's more a question of how they manage to then blame somebody else when shit goes wrong.

If they get the same or similar numbers, they are fucked. May will have her grammar schools and other grim stuff so the Lords won't block it. But the party will have it in for her and just like now, they won't be able to put anything through without rebels scuppering it. The Tories would probably keep her there long enough for her to be the scapegoat then get some fresh-faced, non-Brexit bastard in to give them a facelift and hope everyone forgets what they've been up to. 

I'm still expecting a sizeable Tory win though.

legaldinho wrote:

Btw, all the major pollsters are now weighing in favour of Tories in these polls - a 4% lead in actual data becomes 10%. "Because 2015" basically, the turnout rate for Tory voters was so much higher. I go by the voteuk forum, a nerd forum for psephologists and party campaigner types. Worth a gander.

I've trawled through some of this site since you mentioned it. It's good. Some interesting stuff on the polls - they've consistently overstated the Conservative support since 2015 (when they changed their models), they're based on turnout rates from the last election but can vary a lot between elections (e.g. they factor out some young people because they say they'll vote but then don't), this time round there was quite a spike in registrations of the young, suggesting increased motivation. No one really knows whether the people who came out for the Brexit vote will go back into not voting or they'll vote Tory now or what they'll do. Overall turnout is hard to predict and, as per the Brexit voters who haven't been voting in recent years, no one knows whether an increased turnout will skew the vote one way or the other. Factor in all the seat by seat stuff, Brexit, Corbyn. No one's got a clue in other words. The guys on that forum still seem to lumping for a big Tory win though, seemingly from the overall consistency in the polls despite their varying methodologies.

monkey wrote:

legaldinho wrote:

Btw, all the major pollsters are now weighing in favour of Tories in these polls - a 4% lead in actual data becomes 10%. "Because 2015" basically, the turnout rate for Tory voters was so much higher. I go by the voteuk forum, a nerd forum for psephologists and party campaigner types. Worth a gander.

I've trawled through some of this site since you mentioned it. It's good. Some interesting stuff on the polls - they've consistently overstated the Conservative support since 2015 (when they changed their models), they're based on turnout rates from the last election but can vary a lot between elections (e.g. they factor out some young people because they say they'll vote but then don't), this time round there was quite a spike in registrations of the young, suggesting increased motivation. No one really knows whether the people who came out for the Brexit vote will go back into not voting or they'll vote Tory now or what they'll do. Overall turnout is hard to predict and, as per the Brexit voters who haven't been voting in recent years, no one knows whether an increased turnout will skew the vote one way or the other. Factor in all the seat by seat stuff, Brexit, Corbyn. No one's got a clue in other words. The guys on that forum still seem to lumping for a big Tory win though, seemingly from the overall consistency in the polls despite their varying methodologies.

Guy called David boothroyd is worth following on there. Labour councillor, hates corbo. You'll like him

Are you ready for the non debate?

Jesus, what a stupid fucking question.

"I don't see any difference between you and the Tories on Brexit"

Have you not been paying fucking attention?

I think I'm in love with Corbyn.

Oh, that's it. Jeremy Paxo interview next.

Hopefully he's got a question that isn't pants on head.

Ahahaha, the answer to the monarchy question, brilliant.

Give it up on the manifesto Pax Man. This isn't UKIP, one man doesn't decree it.

Misjudged the room on the Bin Laden question mate.