The British Politics Thread
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monkey wrote:Comres have the Tories picking up a 100 seat majority. So someone's wrong out of those two.
That's done from national polling though. The 5% YouGov poll gives a Tory majority of 26, whereas this seems to be a more detailed constituency breakdown, rather than applying national polling.
But frankly, who the fuck knows. As this is a snap election, everything has been more volatile. -
The whole election shambles seems to get worse every year. Can everybody just read the manifesto make a choice and shut the fuck up. (I'm not referring to this thread i haven't read i mean the general public/mass media.)
I'm lib dem/green as usual. Tories guarenteed landslide win in my constituency though. -
Corbyn would be less of a liability than McDonnell, plus he needs to show he can remember numbers. Might as well go for it. -
This polling business is another blight on democracy. -
lol number 1 in the iTunes Charts:
Liar Liar Ge2017 - Single by Captain Ska
https://itun.es/gb/nvxUjb -
WorKid wrote:Corbyn would be less of a liability than McDonnell, plus he needs to show he can remember numbers. Might as well go for it.
If Corbyn doesn't do it it will be Thornberry. -
I'm struggling to see how any of it is very useful. In 2015, mistaken polls may have influenced how people voted as they didn't want the predicted outcome which might have made them even more wrong.JonB wrote:This polling business is another blight on democracy.
People might have stayed at home for Brexit as that outcome looked like a foregone conclusion.
Now people won't vote Labour because they can't win, will vote Tory because they can, won't vote Tory because they don't want a landslide, will vote Tory to avoid a hung parliament, all of this from polls that are all over the place. It's a mess.
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I think the Tories will have a majority of 45.67 or maybe 21.69, and Labour may well lose 25 seats but then gain 26 elsewhere.
Now, where's my fidget spinner? -
monkey wrote:
I'm struggling to see how any of it is very useful. In 2015, mistaken polls may have influenced how people voted as they didn't want the predicted outcome which might have made them even more wrong. People might have stayed at home for Brexit as that outcome looked like a foregone conclusion. Now people won't vote Labour because they can't win, will vote Tory because they can, won't vote Tory because they don't want a landslide, will vote Tory to avoid a hung parliament, all of this from polls that are all over the place. It's a mess.JonB wrote:This polling business is another blight on democracy.
Given the turnout in the EU referendum, I doubt it. -
Dunno. The only way to dig into that is to find even more polls so it's probably not worth exploring. Potential Leave voters could have equally not bothered as they might not have thought it was likely to happen. My mate voted Leave because he thought it would be funny if it happened (he was right tbf) but wouldn't have voted that way if he'd thought it actually might.
It's pretty indisputable that polls affect voting though imo. If the polls are right and then voting because of the polls make them wrong, that's one thing. If they're wrong to start with, that's not great for anyone. -
monkey wrote:It's pretty indisputable that polls affect voting though imo.
I agree with that. Which is why the narrowing polls are good for Labour, it gives those who traditionally have a low turnout a reason to go out, because they think, ooh, I might actually make a difference.
I think the election will come perhaps a week too soon to prevent a Tory majority, but I'm unsure on if they are still in line for a landslide. -
Even if they're not entirely reliable, it undermines the point of a secret ballot if everybody's constantly being told who everyone else is likely to vote for.
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JonB wrote:Even if they're not entirely reliable, it undermines the point of a secret ballot if everybody's constantly being told who everyone else is likely to vote for.
That's my thinking behind it as well"I spent years thinking Yorke was legit Downs-ish disabled and could only achieve lucidity through song" - Mr B -
JonB wrote:Even if they're not entirely reliable, it undermines the point of a secret ballot if everybody's constantly being told who everyone else is likely to vote for.
Does it though? No one will know who you cast a vote for. So, how is that not the definition of a secret ballot? -
They're just predictions of what will be public information anyway.
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This guy has done some of the hard work on examining NHS privatisation plans. Worth watching despite him droning on a bit.
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It is a secret ballot, but constant polling undermines the point of it. Or one of the points of it anyway.Diluted Dante wrote:
Does it though? No one will know who you cast a vote for. So, how is that not the definition of a secret ballot?Even if they're not entirely reliable, it undermines the point of a secret ballot if everybody's constantly being told who everyone else is likely to vote for. -
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I have Claire Perry. It'll take something unprecedented to get her out of that seat. The Tories could probably get a blue lollipop elected here. -
Either May shows up and it's another u-turn or she doesn't and she's a coward. Top work. It might all go wrong for him but its a gamble worth taking.
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I’m on this HYPE train. I’m even up for giving it a push. -
Everyone's U-turning now. Cameron might unresign.
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Maybe this is the tipping point, and like in Red Dwarf everything will now run backwards.
BP will clean up a massive oil slick in the gulf.
Oswald will suck a bullet out of JF Kennedy's head from 200 metres. (or will he.... )
Hitler will bring millions of Jews back to life.
etc -
Imagine him showing up at the studio. He kicks open the door, shirtless with a pig slung over his shoulder. Humming his wee tune.
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