The British Politics Thread - The Bear and Badger

monkey

Cabinet loyalists May is digging in: "Her calculation is they won’t have the balls to come for her, because none of the leadership contenders want to be seen holding the knife - and she’s probably right”.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21

Yossarian

I look forward to our post-apocalyptic world when she’s PM of the cockroaches.

Yossarian

She might be making another statement from Downing St tonight.

I can’t wait to hear her say the exact same things as her previous statements to the exact same effect.

LivDiv

Leaked from inside N0.10

Yossarian

I think she might actually be quitting, the day before an election.

What an age we live in.

LivDiv

It is absolute madness but it will probably claw back some votes for the Tories tomorrow.

Yossarian

I just want her to pull out some baller move at the end, like “I’m quitting, but before I came out here I revoked article 50 to get us out of this shitshow. So long suckers”.

Yossarian

She won’t, obviously, but she should. It would leave her with some sort of legacy at least.

Yossarian

Exclusive:

Here's A36 of the WAB which has enraged Cabinet today

It explicitly sets out path to a 2nd referendum via an amended motion, which it sets out as follows:

'That this House agrees there should be another referendum before the withdrawal agreement is ratified'

It's explosive stuff.

The WAB is in black and white proposing an amended motion for a 2nd referendum

Here's the killer line:

'In this section 'another referendum' means a referendum provided for by *an Act of Parliament* (my emphasis)...'

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131236848527990785

Possibly the least apt use of the word ‘explosive’ in history, but there you go.

monkey

It’s pretty clear there’s no point trying again with this vote. In which case, what’s the point of hanging on?

Yossarian

Theresa May looks like she's trying to tough it out.

1. @Steven_Swinford reportings she's refusing to see ministers tonight.
2. Tomorrow EU elex polling day mean broadcasters cannot report politics, scuppering momentum.
3. Then it's recess until June 4.

#JapaneseknotweedPM

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1131235413249712130

RedDave2

Yossarian wrote:

RedDave2 wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

RedDave2 wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

There is an easier solution, it’s been staring her in the face the whole time: a referendum on the deal, actually supported and whipped for by the government. That’s the way out of this and it has been for months.

Is that a ref with no brexit as an option? Because I reckon that would be as a damaging to your country as no deal brexit.

Yep, with no Brexit as an option.

And yes, I’m sure it will be damaging, but if parliament won’t pass this, the only deal on offer, which they have made quite clear they won’t, then the only other options are a referendum and revoke. Of those remaining options, a referendum is the least damaging and the only one that can claim any type of legitimacy.

There’s simply no other choice.

Oh I disagree. Much as I wish it wasn't the case, there isn't enough on the side of remain to make staying in a good choice. Your politicians will spend the next few years still arguing, someone like farrage will lead a party into continuously undermining both the UK government as traitors and the EU as evil overlords from abroad. There doesn't seem to have been nearly enough of a sway to remain despite this shit show.

That 7 to 8 million voting for brexit don't represent a brexit vote. They represent the no deal, burn down the House vote. There will still be conservatives and ukip votes which are solid withdrawal, albeit maybe with a deal.

Get it down and things can move on and Britain can rebuild itself or at least evolve. Maybe without the EU monkey on your back there will be less excuse for the inevitable tory government. I doubt it though. The referendum was a disaster but at this point leave looks to be the only realistic option. If you had labour fully behind remain and they had a solid base, than you can make the argument that a change in government will change things but that's not the case.

Get ready for October, 2019 will likely be a grim Xmas.

What does leave mean though?

Parliament’s rejected no deal and May’s deal, and heavily. There’s no more majority for leave than there is for remain, hence the paralysis.

If you can come up with some method to break that deadlock aside from going back to the people, please get yourself over to Downing Street ASAP.

The deadlock is only there because of the stupid behaviour of your politicians. The UK is trying to look at all the different angles but there aren't that many and it isnt complicated.

There's only 3 options. Any other choice isn't on the table.

The UK can

A - call it off and remain

B - leave with the agreed agreement (and remember that's as much because the EU said there is no other negotiation to happen)

C - leave with no deal.

Whatever else you would like it to be, if you had a referendum next week those are the only options and when you ask what does leave mean I would say which of those options doesn't include the word leave.

Yossarian

Right, except B and C are both off the table because they’ve both been repeatedly defeated in Parliament. The only way to get B back on the table is through a referendum.

acemuzzy

Well A is also off the table, and we've in fact had to sell the table cos Brexit

Yossarian

I mean, I see the point that you’re trying to make, but your options completely ignore the parliamentary gridlock. My point is that a referendum appears to be the only way to break that gridlock.

RedDave2

C could still happen, regardless of what the fuckers in parliament want. Sheer incompetence, which the British government has done fantastically well with, would be enough to see it through.

But OK, let's say b and c are off the table. That means the only option is by that logic remain. If that's the case and b and c are so off the table, why hasn't article 50 been revoked already? Why has October been agree with the EU as the withdrawal date?

And if c is still possible by virtue of UK politicians then your referendum would be a choice between remain or leave with no deal and again I ask which of these choices doesn't have the word leave in it.

Yossarian

C is possible by virtue of it being the default, not because of the politicians.

And as Muzzy points out, A is currently off the table because of the referendum.

As I say, it’s deadlock and has been for ages. What do you suggest for breaking that deadlock if not a referendum?

poprock

It would have to be a binding referendum. Not like the last one, which is being treated as binding despite definitely not being.

RedDave2

Your parliament should grow up, accept their reality and stop asking to play 3rd strike on the dreamcast when all you have is the option of playing body blows or rise of the robots on an amiga 500 or go back outside and play with your friends in the sunshine.

Give every politician a choice between options a, b and c. No abstain. Vote records will be made public. Most votes wins, no comebacks. That's it. Everything else is just bullshit.

poprock

That would be ideal, yes. Will never happen.

Yossarian

I’d say a second ref is far more likely than that.

RedDave2

poprock wrote:

That would be ideal, yes. Will never happen.

Then get ready for c I guess

RedDave2

Yossarian wrote:

I’d say a second ref is far more likely than that.

So what's going on your referendum?

Yossarian

Remain vs May’s deal seems most sensible and politically palatable at the moment, but, I would hope that we’d spend a bit more time thinking through the various options and getting prepared this time.

RedDave2

Yossarian wrote:

Remain vs May’s deal seems most sensible and politically palatable at the moment, but, I would hope that we’d spend a bit more time thinking through the various options and getting prepared this time.

OK so again I ask which of those is leave?

Also mays deal is so toxic from a public point of view (whether it actually is that bad is up for debate) that I think many of those who voted leave would not only feel that choice not include their preference but also forces them towards a remain vote.

You've also picked the one choice (b) which was the only one which could be said to be off the table so you've rigged the vote. If b won your referendum you are back to gridlock.

Yossarian

I said they were all off the table.

And, as Pop suggested, we would have to make it binding. Job done.

I’m not completely opposed to no-deal being on there somewhere, perhaps a two round vote, but your suggestion provides even less legitimacy than this, there’s no consultation of the people at all and it leaves whatever is chosen open to accusations of an establishment stitch-up.

At least if you’ve gone back to the people you can claim some sort of mandate for whichever course of action is eventually chosen.

GooberTheHat

Has she resigned yet?

Yossarian

https://hastheresamayresignedyet.com/

LivDiv

I see Greybull were behind the British Steel collapse. Same as Monarch and Comet.

Brexit might have been the final straw but the likes of Greybull are parasites that will feed until the host dies then move on.

RedDave2

Yossarian wrote:

I said they were all off the table.

And, as Pop suggested, we would have to make it binding. Job done.

I’m not completely opposed to no-deal being on there somewhere, perhaps a two round vote, but your suggestion provides even less legitimacy than this, there’s no consultation of the people at all and it leaves whatever is chosen open to accusations of an establishment stitch-up.

At least if you’ve gone back to the people you can claim some sort of mandate for whichever course of action is eventually chosen.

You already went to the people. If you reckon the swing would be 35 to 65 in favour of remain you might have a case Yoss but to the best of my knowledge there hasn't been a poll showing that. I really wish that wasn't the case but we are where we are.

Either way, on the table or off the table there are only 3 options to this and 1 of them is in no way honouring the referendum. How you get to them is tricky alright, but it's worth bearing in mind that there is a strong possibility that of the UK doesn't make this decision its going to be made for them anyway.

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