The British Politics Thread - The Bear and Badger

Roujin

Okay but somehow Boris is still the favourite to be PM so at this point until I see movement in any other direction, I feel like we're going straight over the cliff unfortunately.

Yossarian

I reckon Johnson wouldn’t go through with it because he knows it’s madness and he’ll get blamed for what comes next. Even if he tries, I reckon that the government will fall first.

Roujin

Bojo on LBC right now about to answer questions, should be scenes once way or another.

b0r1s

Known Racist
Potential domestic abuser
Idiot (though not as idiotic as the British public)
Close ties with Steve Bannon
Outright Lier

Of course he's the favourite.

I'm buying 12 months worth of vodka on the 30th October. May as well watch the country go to shit while shit-faced.

Roujin

Rare footage of Nick Ferrari pushing Boris for answers, this fucking clown can't even answer softball questions from his old broadcasting pal.

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

No deal is still madness and still won’t happen.

For fuck's sake

Yossarian

Raab might have attempted it, he’s a nutcase. Johnson’s just willing to say whatever it takes to get into number 10.

poprock

Yoss, I love you but you’re deluding yourself.

I don’t know what part of the last five years’ international and British politics you haven’t paid attention to … but madness is now the norm. No deal is a distinct possibility. Even a likelihood.

davyK

Maybe there needs to be a real blood letting to cure this country of its jingoistic superiority complex and high tolerance of obvious liars and self serving narcissists in public office.

Yossarian

We’ll see soon enough, I guess.

davyK

I read somewhere that Cameron marked the end of an era of when "real people" had risen to power in the country - those who had come from a relatively modest background. it started in the 70s with Heath apparently.

There's a feeling that the upper crust are taking back power. Already the rise of the private landlord is on the march , buying up privately owned houses that Thatcher, for all her faults, had placed in the hands of the public. We are now faced with a generation who will be without assets for the first time in a couple of generations.

The reactionary opposition to this had gone red and will be ineffective. It's a fucking shambles.

equinox_code

davyK wrote:

The reactionary opposition to this had gone red and will be ineffective. It's a fucking shambles.

You say this as if the solutions lie in the political centre

Yossarian

Superb:

RamSteelwood

davyK wrote:

Maybe there needs to be a real blood letting to cure this country of its jingoistic superiority complex and high tolerance of obvious liars and self serving narcissists in public office.

i think if there was any chance that those responsible would hold their hands up and/or take the blame for it all going to shite, then i think i'd be quite up for a 'no deal' just to see the fall out.
however, if it happened and things go as badly as we expect, all that would happen is more passing the buck, pointing the finger at EU and foreign people and the 'liberal elite', and generally just worsening the divide and fuelling more hatred.

monkey

I don’t think that can happen now (blaming the EU). So many Tories have said, so many times, that No deal will be fine. Nothing to worry about. I was thinking during that 5 way Tory leadership debate, when four of them all said they supported no deal, that this was a future Labour campaign ad.

monkey

Johnson’s game seems to be to split off the unpopular parts of the WA to the other side of October 31st. Then crow about how brilliant he is to have finally taken us out while solving none of the problems, then go for a GE maybe. I can’t see how that sorts out the backstop. Maybe we just get out but still stay in the Customs Union and Single Market ie still permanent members until full withdrawal is negotiated. Which Tories can then start deluding themselves will be done within two years. That might work for long enough for him to get us out.

Yossarian

Except the EU aren’t going to agree to splitting up the WA, they’ve said it about a billion times now.

monkey

There's no renegotiation under the existing red lines. If those change, and they're more favourable to the EU, it can be. The Dutch PM said as much recently.

I did say maybe. I've assumed that Johnson has a clue about what his plan is, and that he can sell indefinite SM and CU membership to the Tory right as a price worth paying to get Brexit over the line.

poprock

BJ doesn’t want to worry about details. He’s a ‘big ideas’ man, don’t you know. All he needs to do is become PM, by promising great things, then leave it to his people to figure out. It’ll take a few years for the plebs to notice that he’s promised impossible unicorns, at which point he can point at his predecessors, the opposition within Westminster, and the EU Parliament, and simply say that ‘they didn’t believe in us enough’.

Thanks Trump. Thanks Bannon. Thanks fucking Johnson.

Yossarian

poprock wrote:

It’ll take a few years for the plebs to notice that he’s promised impossible unicorns

Except:

poprock wrote:

Current timeline:

July 23rd: New Tory leader announced.
July 24th: He becomes PM.
July 26th: Parliament closes for summer holidays.

September 3rd: Parliament reopens.
October 31st: Brexit.

Fucksake.

I think that there’s a fairly reasonable chance that Johnson will end up being the shortest-serving PM in history.

Diluted Dante

monkey wrote:

I've assumed that Johnson has a clue about what his plan is

Ah, I see where you went wrong.

Diluted Dante

There is no way Parliament should be closing in the midst of a national crisis btw. What the fuck is going on?

monkey

I don't think he knows or cares what state we're in on November 1st. As long we're not technically a member of the EU. He'll sign up to anything as long as he can say he took us out and wave away hard stuff like the backstop as part of an ongoing negotiation that Britain is going to do really well out of if we believe it hard enough.

Diluted Dante

He'll struggle to do that when he loses the vote of confidence.

poprock

Yossarian wrote:

I think that there’s a fairly reasonable chance that Johnson will end up being the shortest-serving PM in history.

What do you think’s going to happen after Oct 31st? Are you expecting a Tory revolt that ousts him as leader, so soon after voting him in? Are you expecting a general election, which you then expect him to lose?

poprock

monkey wrote:

I don't think he knows or cares what state we're in on November 1st. As long we're not technically a member of the EU. He'll sign up to anything as long as he can say he took us out and wave away hard stuff like the backstop as part of an ongoing negotiation that Britain is going to do really well out of if we believe it hard enough.

Monkey’s right.

Yossarian

poprock wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

I think that there’s a fairly reasonable chance that Johnson will end up being the shortest-serving PM in history.

What do you think’s going to happen after Oct 31st? Are you expecting a Tory revolt that ousts him as leader, so soon after voting him in? Are you expecting a general election, which you then expect him to lose?

Vote of no confidence to prevent no deal seems most likely to me, possibly Tory resignations to force a GE.

What happens with a GE does remain to be seen.

Unlikely

Can't Johnson withdraw from the current race, let the shitshow about his domestic life blow over (because it will, because Boris), let Hunt fuck himself into paste over Brexit then pop up to take over afterwards? Would seem the Borisy thing to do.

Diluted Dante

Enough Tories have stated they would back a motion of no confidence in the government if it looked like we were going to No Deal for Johnson to lose it.

poprock

Unlikely wrote:

Can't Johnson withdraw from the current race, let the shitshow about his domestic life blow over (because it will, because Boris), let Hunt fuck himself into paste over Brexit then pop up to take over afterwards? Would seem the Borisy thing to do.

Ah, but Boris Johnson is desperate to be PM. He can’t see past “me want be PM now”, especially with the risk that his party get the boot afterwards, or even implodes.

Howdy, Stranger!

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