monkey wrote:

I don't think he knows or cares what state we're in on November 1st. As long we're not technically a member of the EU. He'll sign up to anything as long as he can say he took us out and wave away hard stuff like the backstop as part of an ongoing negotiation that Britain is going to do really well out of if we believe it hard enough.

I don’t think he’s that dumb, TBH. The only option available to him to avoid no deal would be another punt at the WA, which is likely to see the ERG topple him.

He’ll bluff and bluster about walking away with no deal, but I don’t see him actually doing it.

Diluted Dante wrote:

Enough Tories have stated they would back a motion of no confidence in the government if it looked like we were going to No Deal for Johnson to lose it.

Yep, and I don’t see the ERG suddenly falling into line behind a soft Brexit now.

monkey wrote:

Diluted Dante wrote:

He'll struggle to do that when he loses the vote of confidence.

The Rory Stewart and Dominic Grieve types have suggested they'll give him a conditional vote of confidence while he talks to the EU but withdraw their confidence if he goes for no deal. So that will get him to the other side of the Summer.

There’s no one to talk to. The EU negotiating team has been disbanded. The conversation will be very short.

The ERG didn't have a problem with a two year implementation period. Two years to negotiate a Canada style trade deal!! If Johnson can wrap the problems with the WA into that period as well, stay as members of the CU and SM for that two year period and aim to leave at the end of it, they might go for it. The price for not doing it is a GE. 

It's total fantasy bollocks of course but they only ever care about the next hurdle.

poprock wrote:

Unlikely wrote:

Can't Johnson withdraw from the current race, let the shitshow about his domestic life blow over (because it will, because Boris), let Hunt fuck himself into paste over Brexit then pop up to take over afterwards? Would seem the Borisy thing to do.

Ah, but Boris Johnson is desperate to be PM. He can’t see past “me want be PM now”, especially with the risk that his party get the boot afterwards, or even implodes.

I guess. Its just that since the next PM is going to be hated by millions regardless of how he handles Brexit it would seem to be worth the risk of the party imploding for the chance to appear as the Phoenix rising out the other side, championing mending this fractured nation, FISH AND CHIPS FOR ALL, rather than the doddery old fuckwit driving his bus over the cliff.

Yossarian wrote:

With the combined will of Bercow and Parliament, I fully expect an alternative to present itself.

 

Ahh, a magic fantasy unicorn of your own. Got it.

Yossarian wrote:

I don’t see this getting resolved any way around with a minority government except via a referendum. That or a GE is the only way out, the only question is which one Johnson goes for.

A referendum will probably end up voting for no deal though, if offered. Or at the very least, voting more decisively for leave than the first time around.

And a general election either hands more power to the Tories, or upends them and puts Labour in charge, propped up by the SNP. And then Labour will hold a referendum. And we’re back to my first point.

monkey wrote:

The most important conversation to have in this country right now is what Boris Johnson's hair length was on Sunday compared to Saturday.

We’re all fucked.

monkey wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

monkey wrote:

The ERG didn't have a problem with a two year implementation period. Two years to negotiate a Canada style trade deal!! If Johnson can wrap the problems with the WA into that period as well, stay as members of the CU and SM for that two year period and aim to leave at the end of it, they might go for it. The price for not doing it is a GE.  It's total fantasy bollocks of course but they only even care about the next hurdle.

He can’t.

Why not? You don't need a backstop if you're a member of the Customs Union and single market. And that's better for the EU than the existing arrangement. There's no point going over and over this. I'm speculating on the long-term strategic plan of a man who shows no indication that he knows how to tie his own shoelaces. The most important conversation to have in this country right now is what Boris Johnson's hair length was on Sunday compared to Saturday.

He’s not renegotiating the WA in the few weeks available, it’s simply not happening. I don’t particularly see the E.U. being keen on extending and reopening the negotiation just so Johnson can have a crack at it either.

Perhaps that can shift if Johnson says he’ll relax the red lines and the ERG don’t immediately bring him down, but I don’t see it.

poprock wrote:

monkey wrote:

The most important conversation to have in this country right now is what Boris Johnson's hair length was on Sunday compared to Saturday.

We’re all fucked.

To be fair, that's a very worthwhile talking point, because it would appear that the photo of boris and his partner that appeared in papers after the argument was not taken after the event, but before.

There is a strong suggestion that this photo has been circulated to the press to give the impression that everything is fine in boris town now and to downplay the reported seriousness of the events last week so as to maintain his image with the public and the voting Tory membership.

Actually, his standing has dropped greatly even within Tory circles as a result of the domestic violence allegations. Massively more so with the general public. If it is shown that he did indeed circulate a false picture to try to repair his reputation, it would likely drop more.

It's worth noting as well that he fucked up even a softball interview with one of his mates on this issue. He's not equipped to handle continued questioning, he's used to being able to shrug everything off.

Yossarian wrote:

The ERG didn't have a problem with a two year implementation period. Two years to negotiate a Canada style trade deal!! If Johnson can wrap the problems with the WA into that period as well, stay as members of the CU and SM for that two year period and aim to leave at the end of it, they might go for it. The price for not doing it is a GE.  It's total fantasy bollocks of course but they only even care about the next hurdle.

He can’t.

Why not? You don't need a backstop if you're a member of the Customs Union and single market. And that's better for the EU than the existing arrangement. There's no point going over and over this. I'm speculating on the long-term strategic plan of a man who shows no indication that he knows how to tie his own shoelaces. The most important conversation to have in this country right now is what Boris Johnson's hair length was on Sunday compared to Saturday.

He’s not renegotiating the WA in the few weeks available, it’s simply not happening. I don’t particularly see the E.U. being keen on extending and reopening the negotiation just so Johnson can have a crack at it either. Perhaps that can shift if Johnson says he’ll relax the red lines and the ERG don’t immediately bring him down, but I don’t see it.

He's got three months. He can start off saying the UK's red lines have completely changed and we want to be in the SM and CU until we negotiate a full trade deal out of it. He can bring a vote before Parliament on it before the Summer to prove to the EU that it has a majority. Everything the EU has said on renegotiating is to do with the UK keeping its current red lines.  This removes nearly everything on transition and backstops. The £39 billion will stay, citizen's rights, Gibraltar. If the EU aren't prepared to indulge in constructive dialogue, he'll gear everything up for No deal. At that point, the EU can sit on it's hands and do nothing for three months and then we crash out and they get a fair amount of the blame. Or they can engage with him. They have three months to work out arrangements to keep everything exactly the same except we don't get invited to meetings anymore. The hard part is getting people to vote for it. He could conceivably get quite a few Labour votes. 

The backstop is there because May wanted a two year period to negotiate a full trade deal covering the entire economy. The EU realise this is nonsense, as do the Tories, which is why they wanted something to cover the end of this two year period. And that's why the Tories shat themselves on the backstop. They shouldn't care if they think they can do it in two years. With my off the top of my head plan, they can still keep this pretence alive, and come out on time. I haven't said this is a good plan. It still probably needs an extension of a few months. And if he's going in with no changes on the UK's red lines, its not getting anywhere.

I'm not really convinced even Boris can sell the Tories on "lets do Jeremy Corbyn's plan"

True. I should probably be paying a bit more attention to what Hunt is saying. Up until now I’ve been treating him as an irrelevance.

This is just surreal. He's making this up isn't he? He seems to be deciding how he makes model buses on the spot. 

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1143491303466053633

What is it with him and buses? It's a weird Jungian archetype thing for him now. He probably has nightmares where he's being chased by himself driving a bus.