Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers - The Bear and Badger

Vela

Who is going to be hit hardest by Brexit (May deal, no deal)? What is actually at stake here when March comes around assuming nobody comes to their senses?

Interest rates for mortgages? Unemployment consequences? Funding availability for welfare and healthcare? Import/export bottlenecks? Mass retrenchment?

Give it 5 years of recession and more austerity on steroids and the next government will have to go to Brussels with their tail between their legs.

Fucking David Cameron the pig fucker. So stupid he makes Blair the War Criminal look almost competent.

Diluted Dante

Who is going to be hit hardest by Brexit

The areas that voted for it.

poprock

I know Gonz is just being pragmatic, but I’m sticking with idealism.

Ideally we never fucking started this nonsense, so my preferred scenario is to not leave the EU at all. Change our government completely and let the new incumbents tell the EU that the new UK Gov has a different policy and would rather stay in, please. Ta.

Job number two for the new government would be to deal with the fallout of that.

LivDiv

No deal won't happen.

The process now is...
1. Vote on May's deal
2. If rejected motion of no confidence.
3. If agreed GE and extension of Art.50
4. If Corbyn wins, back to Brussels
5. Vote on Corbyn's deal
6. If that fails, maybe, maybe a referendum.

Vela

7. Shares of bus advertising spaces skyrockets.

LivDiv

Haha

LivDiv

Seriously though, if the deal and motion of no confidence are rejected then fuck knows what happens.

Vela

We should pool funds and buy a bus.

Diluted Dante

I suspect if both those things happen, May will concede a Referendum

RamSteelwood

Alternatively.
Vote on deal.
Doesn't pass.
Lots of delays and bluster, then they resubmit the same deal days before crashing out with no deal.
MPs accept deal.

Regardless of remain, deal, or no-deal, i think we're fucked for a long time yet. Whatever happens, the outcome will be blaming the EU for everything that goes wrong, and increasing far-right nutters.
I see Gonz's point that May's deal might be the best compromise to prevent those becoming a major political force, maybe he's right. Maybe the 'remainer hope' that enough leavers have changed their mind or just don't care that much would prove right and things settle back down, though it's easy to see how that would easily 'firm up' the far right, giving them a 'legitimate' rallying cry.
And no deal would probably be WORST (edit - not 'worth'!) on both counts, both economically for the majority, but I think rather than appeasing the far-right element would make it worse - it all goes to shit but the EU and foreigners are blamed for not giving us a magic deal.

monkey

1. May deal voted down
2. Corbyn calls motion of no confidence
3. That gets voted down.
4. Shenanigans - Various idiots say only option is no deal, May says only option is Parliament to reconsider her deal, Corbyn says very little that makes sense. Pressure on both Corbs and May to put 2nd ref before Parliament. If neither blinks, cross party group attempt it. It won’t go through without backing from at least one of the leaders.
5. If 2nd ref goes through, article 50 extension follows. If it doesn’t, May and Corbyn wait each other out and only option then is for May to extend article 50 for a few months so that Parliament can change its mind.
6. Deadlock. May puts deal before house again. It might pass this time. If it doesn’t, 2nd ref again, it may pass this time as Corbs might have the cover to go for it - “I didn’t want this but there’s clearly no alternative than to put it back to the people to break the deadlock.” May might eventually take this line instead. In this situation, I’d put May’s deal as more likely than 2nd ref.
7. As soon as Brexit out of the way, either through a second ref Remain or ratification of May deal, Corbs faces new leadership challenge. Attempt to drive wedge between him and Membership over his handling of Brexit. If May deal ratified, this will definitely happen.
8. May faces new leadership challenge as soon as 12 months is up again. Might win it again due to centrist fear of Tory membership’s idiocy.

RamSteelwood

as much as i want to remain, and thus support a 2nd ref with the idealistic view that everyone comes out and is honest about why we should stay and not leave, and it's a 99% remain vote...i think a 2nd ref is still fucked.
it's either a 3 way choice of stay/go/deal, which will prob end up with a narrow margin between stay/go (either way) and then arguing over whether the 'dealers' would prefer the other option.
or you have calls of shenanigans if they make it a 2 choice thing (ie. stay/deal or leave/deal)...or risk a very stupid thing happening if it's stay/hard brexit vote

Yossarian

The above is why it needs to be an alternative vote in the referendum, even if that does risk no deal.

Diluted Dante

Only a total fucking idiot would advocate for no deal.The number of total fucking idiots in Parliament is actually quite low, most are just fucking idiots. Which means that a referendum would almost certainly be on Mays deal or Remain in EU.

What would be up for debate is the exact working of the question, if it's binding or advisory, and if there are any minimum turnout requirements, or thresholds. It could get messy there, but May and Corbyn would likely be able to block the total fucking idiots from adding insane stuff to it because it's in neithers interest to let that happen.

Yossarian

For the societal reasons that Gonz raises, I think no deal needs to be on there, as much of a risk as that may be.

RamSteelwood

yeah, a ref without a 'no deal' option would prob be viewed as the biggest 'stitch up/betrayal' from that side of the media. it would also make it a discussion point for a long time to wind up the anger.

would be much better in that case if parliament made the decision "deal didn't get voted through so we're cancelling the whole thing". couple of days of headlines and then most people forget about it.

WorKid

No deal is so nebulous a concept though you couldn't possibly have it on the ballot.

It has to be May's deal or Remain.

WorKid

This Grieve amendment debate is getting heated.

Diluted Dante

I think the societal reasons Gonz raises are overplayed. Putting no deal on the ballot is grossly irresponsible. MP's won't do it, and the Electoral Comission are unlikely to be happy with 3 options even if they tried.

Armitage_Shankburn

WorKid wrote:

No deal is so nebulous a concept though you couldn't possibly have it on the ballot.

It has to be May's deal or Remain.

It'll be viewed as treason and the turnout will be significantly lower.

Edit - what yoss said

LivDiv

Any no deal on a ballot would surely be the Mogg "managed no deal" thing.
Which is a deal of sorts.
That's different to the crash out no deal May is now planning for and would need some form of outlining.

When people say they want no deal brexit, what they really want is no ERG influence or freedom of movement. No group wants planes grounded and lorries backed up to Milton Keynes, it's just that they will have that as a downside if it means getting what they want.

Really the whole discussion should have been on our level of alignment, not this deal or that deal.

RedDave2

LivDiv wrote:

Any no deal on a ballot would surely be the Mogg "managed no deal" thing.
Which is a deal of sorts.

That's different to the crash out no deal May is now planning for and would need some form of outlining.

No deal is no deal. The stupid concept of no deal but with side deals is so stupid.

LivDiv

That's what I mean about the discussion should be alignment not deals.
What those people want is no alignment.

The managed no deal is stupid phrasing but it isn't as stupid a concept as crashing out.

monkey

Putting no deal on the ballot of a 2nd ref is the most stupid thing ever.

1) We should have learnt from the past few years that you don't give ridiculous options to the public because you're unable to sort out the nutter MPs on your own. Because people might actually go ahead and vote for it.

2) There isn't a no deal. It's all little side deals and a bit of this and a bit of that. Because otherwise you've got no medicine and the planes don't fly. If you're then negotiating for this thing, why not that thing, and this thing. Then you're back in a deal.

3) If it's a straight majority wins of three options, then there's easily 33.4% of people that can be gulled into voting for it. Just over a third of people out of the 60-70% who vote could fuck 100% of people. If it's AV, it might win anyway, because people will think it won't, they vote for it, before then voting for May's deal. Even some Remainers might cast one of two votes for it, as a fuck you protest, or a misguided belief that a quick blast of short-term pain will get it over with quicker.

4) There is now no resolution to the betrayal narrative. The least damage you can do is with May's deal (where I differ from Gonz is his estimation of the impact of that, but I think we're all just guessing there and that's a pretty dangerous game if, like me, you're discounting it).

Remain = betrayal.
May deal = Not what was promised. BINO. Betrayal.
'No deal' clusterfuck = Not sufficiently prepared for. Establishment didn't want it. They fucked us. 'Remainer' Theresa May fucked us. Phil Hammond fucked us by not putting enough funding into contingency planning. The EU fucked us by not letting us out. Remainers fucked us by not accepting the result and whinging. Betrayal.

Edit- The fact is there has been a betrayal. Tabloids and bastard MPs lied to people about what could happen. The public has been betrayed. Either they hold their hands up and take the blame or they shift the blame to others. Whatever happens now, the betrayal has happened. It’s just about how fast the effects of that come about and who gets the blame.

Armitage_Shankburn

Let's look at how difficult this referendum is gonna be. Question could be:

"The UK voted to leave the EU and the UK has reached a deal governing the transition to the UK's exit. Parliament has voted to seek the views of UK citizens.

What is your preferred arrangement governing the future of the UK's relationship with the EU?

1- Leave with the deal
2 - Leave with no deal
3- Remain

This is atrocious. Leave occurs in two answers. There's too many words. I'm sure they can do better by getting together a dozen wonks and parly counsel but still.

Clusterfuck. It has to be two options. Can we take 2 out without catastrophe? Can we take 1. out without risking an actual no deal result, even it is just called leave /reject the deal/no? Can we take 3 out and not lose millions of voters?

Armitage_Shankburn

A French style two stager is the only thing that works ie take remain out, and if the deal doesn't win, then go to remain /crash as the option. Let brexit be le Pen. Spin it "we gave you a chance to exit based on not fucking it and you said no. So we asked whether we should fuck it or remain"

If fuck it wins in this scenario, well, I don't know what to tell you. We're doomed.

LivDiv

May just got defeated on Grieve's thingy.
Means if the deal is rejected she needs to present an alternative within 3 sitting days.

This is good because her running down the clock is a really shitty thing.

Brooks

I do wish there was a better way of estimating how potent any resentment at BETRAYAL actually would be. There's definitely precedent for that kind of animus being politically effective e.g. German fury over war guilt clauses and general pwning under terms of Versailles being vital to the the rise of Nazism, but it's much easier to activate that fury when literally thousands of men died in combat, the scars of combat on infrastructure and the pageantries of the victorious are still fresh.

Yossarian

Armitage_Shankburn wrote:

A French style two stager is the only thing that works ie take remain out, and if the deal doesn't win, then go to remain /crash as the option. Let brexit be le Pen. Spin it "we gave you a chance to exit based on not fucking it and you said no. So we asked whether we should fuck it or remain"

I could live with this.

WorKid

So now the question is does May have a Plan B?

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