Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers - The Bear and Badger

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

The point of a 2nd referendum is because there’s no parliamentary majority for any of our three options (May’s deal, no deal, remain). A referendum is likely to be the only way of breaking the parliamentary logjam.

This makes literally no sense.

Yossarian

Parliament probably can’t decide, so chuck it back to the people.

Armitage_Shankburn

LivDiv wrote:

I'm very close to your argument as well tbh just leaning on the other side of the fence. I think we can hold off the far right upset in the case of remain, many of these people who voted leave hadn't voted before, they will go back to being uninterested, it's the actual voters that will pull us back to centrist or middle right.
Half those people shouting at Soubry are due a heart attack soon anyway. They wont see a 2021 election. Plus im more worried about reigniting the troubles than I am any brexiteers.

However you do make a point on delaying. It is why I was so pissed off about May delaying the vote on her deal, I can only see it as damaging.
Where you are is where my dad is when I speak to him. He retired last year and is obviously concerned about on going damage to his pension that he can no longer add to. He voted remain but just wants calm now. That is where investors are as well, markets thrive on stability and predictability in politics.

That is where the problems come in with May's deal as well. The backstop is nonsense. It doesn't resolve anything.
It will leave NI in limbo for a long time.
It can't be removed until a political or technogolical solution can be found. You can't solve 300 years of politics in 2 years, even if it was a competent gov being propped up by rational people. Instead we have the Monster Mash and the Munsters.
What I wanted to see May provide in the backstop plans was quotes from tech companies. Quotes on what exists, what can be developed, ballpark figures and timescales. I strongly suspect there is a good reason that wasn't outlined

To be honest economically, a lot of damage has been done already so maybe you are right. Even if no deal is now impossible (which it clearly is not), a failure to ratify the deal would however signal to the markets, and outside investors, that the UK is too risky. But in mainly worried about the irretrievable political damage that would be done.

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

Parliament probably can’t decide, so chuck it back to the people.

You think if the people vote for no deal that parliament would sign up to that? That, I do think, would be treason imo.

LivDiv

We are at a precipice.
I'm not sure there is an answer that can guarantee or even come close to guaranteeing there won't be upset. Every option leads to darkness on some level in some area.

Armitage_Shankburn

monkey wrote:

If May’s deal goes through, it’s more of the same with no end in sight. Two years for a trade deal, constant arguing, wishful thinking, that deadline can’t be met, then we’re in the same position, no one wants the backstop, no one wants longer transition, same twats saying we should just walk away.

There’s no plan that settles this though. A second referendum, remain winning, the government getting its act together and the country settling back to some kind of normality is probably just as wishful as the mad fantasies of the ERG.

If remain win in a second referendum, even if 55-45 is the result, what will follow will be constant arguing, the coalescing of leavers behind a single political force quite possibly, talk of treason and betrayal. Civil unrest possibly.

We fucked it lads. It's damage limitation now.

Yossarian

Armitage_Shankburn wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

Parliament probably can’t decide, so chuck it back to the people.

You think if the people vote for no deal that parliament would sign up to that? That, I do think, would be treason imo.

I don’t think they will vote for no deal. If they do, then fuck us, we deserve all that’s coming.

Yossarian

Armitage_Shankburn wrote:

monkey wrote:

If May’s deal goes through, it’s more of the same with no end in sight. Two years for a trade deal, constant arguing, wishful thinking, that deadline can’t be met, then we’re in the same position, no one wants the backstop, no one wants longer transition, same twats saying we should just walk away.

There’s no plan that settles this though. A second referendum, remain winning, the government getting its act together and the country settling back to some kind of normality is probably just as wishful as the mad fantasies of the ERG.

If remain win in a second referendum, even if 55-45 is the result, what will follow will be constant arguing, the coalescing of leavers behind a single political force quite possibly, talk of treason and betrayal. Civil unrest possibly.

We fucked it lads. It's damage limitation now.

Leavers hate May’s deal, remainers hate May’s deal, I don’t see May’s deal as a way out of arguing, talk of treason or civil unrest.

Edit: At least a choice made through a 2nd referendum could claim some sort of democratic legitimacy.

LivDiv

That's half the problem with a referendum though I guess.
If no one likes May's deal then a ref is down to no deal or remain. Is a ballsy move because like Gonz says, you cannot undermine a second ref.

I'm flip flopping all over the place here.

Armitage_Shankburn

LivDiv wrote:

We are at a precipice.
I'm not sure there is an answer that can guarantee or even come close to guaranteeing there won't be upset. Every option leads to darkness on some level in some area.

May's deal gets you:

- most leavers who are Surrey Tories and little Englanders who eschewed Ukip.
- some recalcitrant leavers who now regret it but won't admit it (maybe even to themselves)
- those who'd be on the street if food prices go up, or if they lose their job at the Nissan factory, or if their nan can't get her blood pressure pills and kicks it, but aren't otherwise proactively engaged with the nutters (yet)

A Corbyn government (papering over the fact that he's surrounded by snakes in his party, only a few will be deselected, and only about 60% of selections for marginals will be on his side, so assuming he gets 100 new MPs, that's only about 60 friends, say) gets u:

- Policies designed to help working class, in particular the white working class who have been fucked over for decades now and are the ones who risk swelling neo fascist numbers.

- against an economic background that's not a complete fuckfest, ala Attlee in 1945, which damaged labour for pretty much two decades.

I dunno, makes sense to me

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

Armitage_Shankburn wrote:

monkey wrote:

If May’s deal goes through, it’s more of the same with no end in sight. Two years for a trade deal, constant arguing, wishful thinking, that deadline can’t be met, then we’re in the same position, no one wants the backstop, no one wants longer transition, same twats saying we should just walk away.

There’s no plan that settles this though. A second referendum, remain winning, the government getting its act together and the country settling back to some kind of normality is probably just as wishful as the mad fantasies of the ERG.

If remain win in a second referendum, even if 55-45 is the result, what will follow will be constant arguing, the coalescing of leavers behind a single political force quite possibly, talk of treason and betrayal. Civil unrest possibly.

We fucked it lads. It's damage limitation now.

Leavers hate May’s deal, remainers hate May’s deal, I don’t see May’s deal as a way out of arguing, talk of treason or civil unrest.

I think my point is, they hate it by comparing it to their favoured outcome. For us remainders it's remain. For brexiteers it's la la land

LivDiv

Makes sense to me as well Gonz. Really does.
It's just that global politics and economies are so fragile it doesn't take much to put a sledgehammer through it all and we swing further right, like really fucked up right.

It isn't hard to see it happening. The far right has taken right wing austerity and convinced people it is a problem caused by the left wing.
It won't be hard to do it again.

Know what it reminds me of? Those cunts that raise dogs to be vicious then the dog bites their face off because some fireworks went off. Cameron is the dog owner the fireworks are brexit and the British public are the dog.

Yossarian

May’s deal was polling at around 14% popularity, behind both remain and no deal. Even with a margin of error on that, there’s fuck all of the population that would actually be on board with it.

Armitage_Shankburn

LivDiv wrote:

Makes sense to me as well Gonz. Really does. It's just that global politics and economies are so fragile it doesn't take much to put a sledgehammer through it all and we swing further right, like really fucked up right.

I think we are close, you know. Like, real close.

My only hope is that the forces, police and services haven't been infiltrated by these guys / haven't got a significant corpus who radicalised themselves like my friend did.

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

May’s deal was polling at around 14% popularity, behind both remain and no deal. Even with a margin of error on that, there’s fuck all of the population that would actually be on board with it.

How much would it poll as a single alternative to remain, or a hard brexit? That is the real issue.

I think probably 80% of the population can live with this transition. At least it doesn't result in the cliff edge as a default.

Yossarian

I do see your point, I just don't see it getting through parliament.

LivDiv

I don't think the public understand May's deal enough to support it.

monkey

Not for reasons previously stated ad nauseam (like electability) but May’s deal going through and a subsequent Corbyn govt are not likely. The Tories are there until 2022 unless they implode, which May’s deal probably saves them from. And Corbyn is just hanging around for that time, 7 years as opposition leader, having waved through Brexit, with a party that hates him. Can’t see it. It’s now(ish) or never for him.

Armitage_Shankburn

Yossarian wrote:

I do see your point, I just don't see it getting through parliament.

MPs being sensible. Failing that, I fucking hope the services fetch all that tranny / sissy porn our MPs have consumed and tell them vote for the deal or else. At this point, it's all hands on deck imo. Honours, scare tactics, blackmail and begging, I'd fucking use it all.

All I'm saying is MPs should vote for the deal. I think itsi the realistic smart play. Sometimes you gotta lay down top pair top kicker. Here I see a straight and four fucking clubs on the board.

LivDiv

Cat amongst pigeons.
How would people feel if Sanders won 2020 and we had taken May's deal?

Armitage_Shankburn

Good.

This deal is just a transition. The real deal comes after - probably ly 10 years from now.

Armitage_Shankburn

By which point, who knows, Norway, a reformed EU, things change. Maybe if we had a society that worked for the white working class this simply woukdn be an issue.

It gives us room to act and plan. Take stock. Things are too jiterry for my tastes. I'm hearing the word "globalists" and "traitors" and "white race is under threat" on the radio.

Armitage_Shankburn

Full disclosure: I've gone balls deep into the alt right the last month I've had WhatsApp exchanges with a friend who says things like "people are ready to kill", calls Merkel a traitor, says whites are under threat etc.

I may not have the most objective viewpoint / may be overestimayoovthe problem. I may be suffering from congotconfir bias when I see signs of such people. But I see it everywhere.

I mean, if you want, I can link you a Herbert marcuse interview on the been in the 60s. Because it's about the Frankfurter school, almost every comment is vile. Eg "Germans".

LivDiv

There is clearly a far right movement that feels empowered right now. It's hard to tell their numbers though. Likewise what they are capable of.
Are we talking angry gammons or a new IRA.
Unfortunately our government isn't in a place to assess this, hopefully our agencies are.

Diluted Dante

I think you are over-estimating the problem. There is definitely been an increase in the far right, but UKIP have just torn themselves apart by moving in that direction. 2016 empowered racists for sure, but most people are not there.

GooberTheHat

Try looking for it off the Internet. Its not as prevalent as you think.

Brooks

Armitage_Shankburn wrote:

Full disclosure: I've gone balls deep into the alt right the last month I've had WhatsApp exchanges with a friend who says things like "people are ready to kill", calls Merkel a traitor, says whites are under threat etc. I may not have the most objective viewpoint / may be overestimayoovthe problem. I may be suffering from congotconfir bias when I see signs of such people. But I see it everywhere. I mean, if you want, I can link you a Herbert marcuse interview on the been in the 60s. Because it's about the Frankfurter school, almost every comment is vile. Eg "Germans".

Yeah I did wonder because I'm not immediately seeing how a fascist front is happening at all beyond a couple internet weirdos who, being very on the internet, are necessarily bad at doing anything irl lol

Brooks

Not to suggest there won't be any burst of political and ethnically tense violence - there has been (Jo Cox) and will be, and it will be right wing - but there doesn't seem to be the mechanism for turning isolated donks into brownshirts, bearing in mind those chapters tended to rely on there being surplus ex-soldiers. What's the equivalent here, football firms?

Brooks

Looking for actual fascist takeovering, Brasil. Bolsonaro wouldn't be possible without the relative strength of and appetite for militarisation in SA politics to date and for decades.

WorKid

As virtually every bit of analysis on all sides has rightly concluded, May's deal is the worst of all worlds, it's an awful deal. It's only redeeming feature is that it exists.

Longer term looking at the country as a whole we'd be better off crashing out and starting afresh. In the short term that has too catastrophic an impact on real people however so it is a terrible thing to do.

We need better access to the EU for services. All this nonsense about trucks coming in to Dover. We export services, through teachers, engineers, telecom specialists, insurance, doctors, research academics, bankers, logistics experts, IT specialists etc etc.

May's deal is horrible. Tied to EU rules but with no influence. We will get fucked over in the future, there are so many examples where the UK either made the EU rules work, or made them work for the UK market place. Solvency II for insurance and Capital Requirements Directive IV the most obvious examples. If we have to follow Berlin-set rules, the UK will be at a severe disadvantage and there's no voice to do anything to push back. It's outrageously bad. Same for everything from farming standards to vacuum cleaner wattage.

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