Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers
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The ECJ ruled that article 50 can be rescinded unilaterally if there is a commitment to stay. It’s not an option to buy more time as the attorney general told Ken Clarke earlier today.
Extensions must be agreed by the EU27. In the event of a referendum or a GE, that agreement seems likely. In any other situation, not so much. -
The EU know that half the Tory deserters are talking tough because they delude themselves into thinking they're playing some kind of geopolitical GTO game of brinkmanship. So they're signalling they won't budge.
They also know when push comes to shove, a significant retinue of labour MPs will cave when they realise that remaining is off the table.
I saw this a couple of days ago on Rollonfriday which is a solicitors forum, very city centric. I thought it summed things up neatly.
OK
this is only the second Brexit thread I have bitten on. Here goes. The last one was after the referendum when Ca moron had resigned and May took over and everyone queried how a remainer could lead Brexit. The debate descended into farce almost immediately and I decided to let others debate democracy while I concentrated on fart jokes and stupid examples of nominative determinism.
But on this issue now I would like to say something, though not necessarily from the angle you might expect. I have been in the working world for 29 years this year and that has encompassed quite a few economic dips and crises (1991 recession, Russia debt market, Asia financial market, dotcom, GFC etc) and EVERY time there's a load of people who say "we will get through this and growth is just round the corner". but it always takes a long time to struggle back up from a big negative event.
A hard brexit would be a very very significant neutering of the British economy at a time when the global economy is far from secure and Britain's economic indicators are very weak indeed. The country has NOT emerged properly from the events of 2008-9 and we are coming to terms with a profoundly adjusted economic context for Britain which quantitative easing masked for a long time. The debt has not been paid fully. It is being paid on the tick by parts of our economy fading and failing. We are having our belt tightened like a homeless person does - this is no diet, it is a new norm of less food. Just as the real bite is being felt on that, as it now is, to then dump out of the EU with nothing but the hopes and aspirations of entirely unrealistic aspirant Brexiteers would be catastrophic. I do not want to hear how that language is Project Fear. It is Project Fucking Reality.
What will happen? We are downstream from the businesses that will be pared back. So we will be pared back. A lot of you will lose your jobs. The number of human beings in associate lawyer jobs ahead is going to rationalise anyway, but this will be another one of those oh fuck moments. You, you and you in the M&A, tax, commercial, banking and capital markets teams. Yeah, you, and the one behind you with the big nose. You're on a list of people who will be consulted for redundancy and your department will be decimated. Fact.
The issue is not whether we should or should not have voted Out in 2016. That has gone by. The issue is when the fuck are people going to drop some of their personal political dogma to rescue what would otherwise be a devastating bollock kick for Britain and compromise, achieving some sort of mitigation of the worst case. Now is not the time for polarised bumtrumpetry, but for pragmatism and rescue plans.
A whole generation has been royally screwed for the long term in the UK following the financial crisis and now we are going to hold their heads under water to make sure they yield. Fucking disgrace.Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
@Yoss
Realise my ECJ sentence was put in a weird place that looked like it was proving the previous point but agree there.
I think they would listen to an approved deal with closer alignment but it would have to be approved. No fucking about. That would be as good as a ref or GE in terms of how it impacts the EU.
We wouldn't need to go into negotiations for that really. We know what the EU would accept. We have known for 2 years -
May will extend article 50 rather than crash out. She can presumably pull anything of hers if she doesn’t like how it’s been amended. I’ve said she has to see it as the only way of getting her deal through.
I’m not trying to avoid any question. You want me to map out the whole thing? It can take months to arrange, involve the electoral commission, campaign busses need to be daubed with fresh lies. -
monkey wrote:May will extend article 50 rather than crash out. She can presumably pull anything of hers if she doesn’t like how it’s been amended. I’ve said she has to see it as the only way of getting her deal through.
I’m not trying to avoid any question. You want me to map out the whole thing? It can take months to arrange, involve the electoral commission, campaign busses need to be daubed with fresh lies.
It took almost 6 months for the 2015 bill to become an act. It took a further 3 months for it to come into force and for the full conduct rules to be drawn. The referendum took place a year and two weeks after the bill was introduced.
It will have a harder passage. I think it could be done, all in all, bill to act, in 3 or 4 months. Then you still need a minimum of 5 months on top.
And that's ignoring all the stuff where people are going to argue about every detail eg about campaign spending and social media etc etc.
I'm going to put it quite plainly: I just don't see how the country can take more of this, only worse, with no guarantee of a consensus or good result.
Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
@Gonz
Good post.
Other than "Ca Moron" that can go into he bin, just call him pig fucker if you want to insult him.
If you look at my posts this evening they are for a compromise even if I would prefer remain.
I'm just not convinced May's deal was a good compromise.
It wasn't everyone giving a bit it was taking a bit from everyone.
I believe there are avenues to a better deal and time that can be bought for that.
I get your angle on May's deal but i think we should hold our nerve that bit longer. 6 more months of this will be worth it in the long run. -
As ever, it's no deal/hard Brexit or Remain/super-strong(Brexit in name only)
Always been the only possible options. Still are.
May's deal is the worst of all worlds and deserves the kicking it got. -
NEW: As May starts the process of trying to find another way through on Brexit, I’m told up to 100 Labour MPs will pivot to #secondreferendum tomorrow morning. Piling the pressure on Corbyn to make this his Plan B when his confidence vote fails
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1085285296948826113
Tomorrow will be interesting to say the least. -
I think after today's vote no deal is twice as likely as it was before. I would have said 1/3 chance before, with a split between the deal and an extension and then a deal the other two thirds.
I think we are at 60% chance of no deal. And I think we are going to enter one of the toughest times of our country's history very divided to boot. Things could get very bad indeed.
I took what the AG said not as a threat. Presumably these people have intelligence. They have the gchq bods telling them what's what.
A small extension with MPs coming to their senses, sure.
But I don't see this deal changing.Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
It will be a no deal. -
My fear with a ref is that May's deal cant be on the ballot anymore.
So the question will be no deal or remain at this stage.
I feel many fence sitters or soft brexiteers now feel obliged to honour the first referendum.
No deal as in full crash won't get through parliament, no hunger for it. Put it on a referendum and it may happen. -
May's deal is all the bad bits of Brexit with none of the good. She's thrown the service sector under the bus. And there are literally zero positives to come from it.
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Show networks- OOH_HOLD_DAT
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Send messageOh my god I just realised something.
How have there not been Deal or No Deal Memes all over the place for the last year?"Let me tell you, when yung Rouj had his Senna and Mansell Scalextric, Frank was the goddamn Professor X of F1." -
Combining the two is far too tragic for anyone to cope with.Roujin wrote:Oh my god I just realised something.
How have there not been Deal or No Deal Memes all over the place for the last year?
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Roujin wrote:Oh my god I just realised something.
How have there not been Deal or No Deal Memes all over the place for the last year?
You should try searching deal or no deal on Twitter. -
I'm still kinda torn. I like democracy. We voted. The outcome was the wrong one but I think we should respect it. I continue to have issues with the EU but overall we're better off part of the EU.
I'm glad I'm not an MP.
It's easy to say no to stuff; at some point they'll need to find something to say yes to.
Best outcome is we pivot to super-soft. Even though I marched the streets seeking a second referendum, I'm nervous about the damage that does.
It's a head fucker all right. -
I still can’t see how no deal can happen. I mean, I understand that it’s the default if nothing else happens, but I find it tricky to believe that Parliament will allow it, and I don’t think that May has any appetite for heading over the cliff-edge either.
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This is where we differ.Armitage_Shankburn wrote:
A small extension with MPs coming to their senses, sure.
But I don't see this deal changing.
I don't think the majority of parliament care about freedom of movement enough to have blocking it destroy the country or break the Good Friday Agreement.
6 months (to Tusk's July) is enough time to swing the populous to a united soft brexit.
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July?
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This is hard Brexit. I can't see any other outcome.
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An EU official said: “Should the prime minister survive and inform us that she needs more time to win round parliament to a deal, a technical extension up to July will be offered.”
This was 2 days ago so they knew the most likely outcome. -
Yossarian wrote:I still can’t see how no deal can happen. I mean, I understand that it’s the default if nothing else happens, but I find it tricky to believe that Parliament will allow it, and I don’t think that May has any appetite for heading over the cliff-edge either.
Parliament consistently implement policies and schemes to make the poor and/or disabled feel like inconsequential specs of shit on a Jimmy Choo high heel, along with pushing through other absurd, fucked for all decisions. A No Deal would be shits and giggles to 'em when its essentially about keeping face with their other gum-chinned, phimosis ridden peers. -
WorKid wrote:This is hard Brexit. I can't see any other outcome.
I still see this as the least likely outcome owing to the numbers in Parliament plus a government who hopefully is aware that it would be madness to go through with it. -
Yossarian wrote:RedDave2 wrote:Yossarian wrote:FWIW, I believe that the leaders of the EU genuinely would prefer us to stay. They keep on offering us the chance to remain, they clearly aren’t doing that because they think that no deal is a better option than temporary uncertainty.
absolutely, but they've never said otherwise.
No, but Kneecap did.
The EU leaders want* you to stay, I want you to go.
Because you're damaging my country.
We have a housing crisis that won't be remotely attempted to be fixed until a general election is held with that as a core manifesto promise of a main party and independents.
We can't have a general election while Brexit is happening for obvious reasons (May never noticed what they are herself I guess)
In fact our government is a minority govt being propped up by their main rival.sobitbcoulf be triggered whenever but it won't be.
*Back to the EU leaders though
The EU as a while wants you to stay, but only if, you are non-mental.
You can't just recind art 50. And trigger it again in 3 years, and yet there's no mechanism to stop you doing it.
The fact the EU is used as a whipping boy by the press and successive governments for their own failures isn't unknown.
At what point are you not just contagion?
More and more people across the EU are fed up with the UK and the attitude shown and the sympathy for the 48% only goes so far.
It's been 2 years and a betting man wouldn't take a second ref overturning the result of what is patently obviously a totally avoidable disaster coming this way.
It's quite possible that this will be the singularity that ends the post WWII mentality phase you've been stuck in for next70 odd years and allows you to change and actually postition yourself for the future of the world as it actually is.
No pain no gain eh?
The 48% are like the lover who promises to never hit you again, he doesn't mean it, but the 52% gaslight you with how great they are, how useless and terrible you are, how they could find anybody in the world to trade with, but are violently jealous of your relationship with Northern Ireland.
Wind Waker is a bad game -
I've seen a few reports saying the EU won't negotiate further from today.
Has anyone got any direct quotes? I keep seeing/hearing "sources".
I'm talking quotes from Juncker, Tusk or one of their known assistants. -
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Dark Soldier wrote:Yossarian wrote:I still can’t see how no deal can happen. I mean, I understand that it’s the default if nothing else happens, but I find it tricky to believe that Parliament will allow it, and I don’t think that May has any appetite for heading over the cliff-edge either.
Parliament consistently implement policies and schemes to make the poor and/or disabled feel like inconsequential specs of shit on a Jimmy Choo high heel, along with pushing through other absurd, fucked for all decisions. A No Deal would be shits and giggles to 'em when its essentially about keeping face with their other gum-chinned, phimosis ridden peers.
Nah, no deal would damage them personally too. It’s very clear where parliament stands on this, there’s no majority for no deal. -
It'll be no deal.
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WorKid wrote:
No, it’s in parliament’s hands.
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