Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers - The Bear and Badger

monkey

kneecap wrote:

No deal March 29th is better than no deal July 31st is better than No Deal March 29th 2020. There comes a limit.

If there's a limit when it's better to just get an economic armageddon over with, rather than try and avoid it, it's probably a bit longer than three or twelve months.

kneecap

But it's not economic Armageddon for us. There's two sides in this and the UK seems determined to forget it

The UK has stuck in groundhog day for over 2 years.

The high level simplicity of "What do you want to do" still can't be answered.

Meanwhile we all get closer to the grave with each passing year.

RedDave2

I have to agree (again) with kneecap in this. I live in Ireland. I'm affected by a foreign governments ineptitude. So it wouldn't be nice if they solved it sooner rather than later. And as it seems there is no solution, the reasons for delaying it are little.

The only plus to a july 31st no deal is it gives us (and to be fair, the uk) time to prepare.

At this point I could live with the UK declaring no deal on July 31st. I can work with that. But a delay to just have more infighting between British parties and to then still arrive at no deal would be reckless to be honest.

The UK politicians should honestly ask themselves are they even close to an agreement amongst themselves. If not, ask for a small extension to help prepare and declare no deal.

Let the rest of us get on with things.

LivDiv

The EU won't agree an extension unless they thought the result would be of benefit so I wouldnt stress too much.

Outside of a GE (not gonna happen) or a new ref (pretty damn unlikely) there isnt a need for an extension.

We are at an impasse where something will have to give, the deadline is useful.
May wants her deal. Corbyn wants Customs Union.
Neither need any more time. Corbyn's needs maybe a day or two to draw up and have the EU agree, which they will of course because it brings us closer.

I wouldn't stress about an extension.

Yossarian

kneecap wrote:

But it's not economic Armageddon for us.

Not Armageddon, no, but it wouldn’t be good at all.

Yossarian

I still don’t believe no deal will happen anyway, despite the fact it’s the current default.

LivDiv

Agreed, at the final hour it will be May's deal that will be voted through if anything. It's now the default deal despite being hated.

kneecap

Any deal has to get through parliament, and cannot be chosen by the PM or Cabinet alone because May already lost that battle.

The parliament is made up of enough fuckwits that no deal can pass through it.

So you need hundreds of MPs to blink for a deal to go through.

No doubt many will on March 28th, but enough of them?

Even if the deal has the treacherous hated Irish backstop that they are too fucking thick to understand is needed because the UK isn't trustworthy anymore because of their behaviour?

Regarding the No Deal Prep, Ireland and the EU have been doing this from day one, unfortunately you guys had David Davis, so the extension into no deal really only benefits one side and two would have to agree to it.

The only way out of this is a bunch of polls highly in favour of remain (60% plus min) and a commitment to a second ref due to material vhange. In the public's feelings. Then an extension might be granted.

(Or May unilaterally recinding art.50 before resigning as the woman who saved England)

LivDiv

Most MPs will go for May's deal over no deal.
It's shit but not that shit.
It's only the ERG and a few nutjobs who would reject it when there are no other options left.

Yossarian

kneecap wrote:

The parliament is made up of enough fuckwits that no deal can pass through it.

So you need hundreds of MPs to blink for a deal to go through.

Your mistake is here. The number of no-deal fuckwits numbers at absolute most 150 out of 650 MPs.

monkey

More than half of Ireland's medicines are transited through the UK a 10 second google tells me.

kneecap

The parliament rejected the only possible deal by 400+ to
200

Because it was too hard, too soft, too close to the EU, too far from the EU.

Maybe enough turn but the deal will be the same..

LivDiv

Yup. But still better than no deal.

There was no need to settle on her deal this week because there was time to fuck about some more. We are still on our way to the cliff edge, we will go right up to it but not over it.

Yossarian

Don’t confuse rejecting the deal with being happy with no deal.

monkey

The arithmetic means either Labour have to support the deal or the no-dealers do. Neither will, so that's not getting through. It's done.

No deal won't happen. It's weak ass brinksmanship.

RedDave2

monkey wrote:

More than half of Ireland's medicines are transited through the UK a 10 second google tells me.

True but apparently new routes have been sorted for most or so the Irish government tells me.

I'm not sure I trust their ability that much bit as far back as early 2018 plans were in motion. Apparently.

LivDiv

monkey wrote:

The arithmetic means either Labour have to support the deal or the no-dealers do. Neither will, so that's not getting through. It's done.

No deal won't happen. It's weak ass brinksmanship.

In the final hour Labour will back May's deal.
They will very much make it known they aren't happy with it and will hold it up against the Tories forever, but they will back it.

kneecap

monkey wrote:

More than half of Ireland's medicines are transited through the UK a 10 second google tells me.

Thank God for boats, and priority access in Belgium and the Netherlands.

That's the thing, we know we're an island, unlike say, Dominic Raab.

Meanwhile 60% of Beef in the UK is Irish.
Not meerly transited but raised here.

Ironic given that Priti Patel was threatening us with starvation, but famine 2.0 ain't happening, we control the food this time. Why British politicians act like the world can't read English is beyond me.

Brexit sucks, the UK should be a counter point in the EU to the Franco German Alliance, as should Spain and Italy, the former is too incompetent the latter too corrupt, so as it stands, we have the big two, the useless two, the grouping of the small to mid sized countries (who do a great job), and you guys.

Oh and 2 fucking nutters in Poland and Hungary who we should be dealing with instead of Brexit.

LivDiv

Priti Patel is a treasonous cunt.

You are right Knee. As shit as we are we and EU would be better together.
I don't think brexiteers quite realise how much influence the EU will have on us even in a no deal scenario.

monkey

I mean it wouldn’t surprise me if Ireland are better prepared than we are for whatever decision we make. I just don’t think the damage that it might cause is worth getting over with or any of that stuff.

I completely understand the annoyance as well. We’re acting like cunts and we’ve got no defence.

hunk

kneecap wrote:

Heh, no deal looms ever closer.
Worst case scenario (best case scenario?)- the UK falls apart with NI and Scotland going their own way.

UK already fell apart in 1921 when Ireland shot it's way out.

Cheer up, it's not the end of the world.

I think they likeliest scenarios are

Extension
No deal

Extension seems ridiculous to be honest, unless there was a new ref booked in, I don't see the point.

Ah, but is this the price people had in mind for Brexit? And that's not even considering the chaos and economic fallout that will follow for years afterwards. This is not what was promised by the Brexiteers and their NHS bus.

But yeah, NI might seek a reunion with the rest of Ireland if no deal Brexit seems inevitable. And who can really blame them?

In case of no deal the Scots too might consider breaking away from the UK and go at it alone and independent. If this happens I hope they stay with the EU in some form or another.

Above is a worst case scenario for no deal Brexit though certainly not unlikely. May and Corbyn should prepare for the worst if they're even toying with the idea.

LivDiv

If Ireland even consider unifying then I'm not sure if May deserves the Nobel peace prize or hanging.

It's quite something to solve 300 years of bloody, often violent indifference through incompetence.

EFifty

RedDave2 wrote:

monkey wrote:

More than half of Ireland's medicines are transited through the UK a 10 second google tells me.

True but apparently new routes have been sorted for most or so the Irish government tells me.

I'm not sure I trust their ability that much bit as far back as early 2018 plans were in motion. Apparently.

Pharma is expanding in Ireland and will continue to do so. Definitely have the routes sorted. Nobody gonna fuck with Pharma companies.

Also if Ireland unifies give the NPP to the NI politicians. Who would've thought after all these years of fighting for sovereignty, not showing up for work and doing absolutely fuck all would've solved the whole thing!

hunk

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/18/europe-brexit-britain-state-politics-fit-for-purpose

Wow, now that's the introspection and reflection I was looking for. Sadly, his extrapolation comes to a similar endpoint as my aforementioned worst case scenario. Not good.

acemuzzy

Aye enjoyed that. Ironic it takes a European to point out out for us, eh?

He didn't really talk about changing our mind. I do think it remains an option, but it won't change anything underlying so in that sense points the (non-EU) problem down the road. So I'm feeling somewhat resigned to us being fucked regardless, just in different forms. A pansexual country we live in.

acemuzzy

Is "no deal" not itself a good breach of the GFA? Why is it not illegal for the government to pursue?

SpaceGazelle

Apparently we're already panic buying certain stuff. Might have to get me a shotgun.

poprock

We’re not going to run out of shotguns.

poprock

OR ARE WE?

Yossarian

Seems that ‘Spoons hard Brexit mag has been ripping off articles without permission.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/wetherspoons-hard-brexit-magazine-spectator-columns

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