Election 2019 - Hide in a fridge to win
  • The fact that Neil was even asking how you pay the money for the WASPI women is insane to me. It doesn't matter. If the government lose in court over it they'll likely have to pay more. But even so it's a moral responsibility to pay it.

    No one ever asks how you'll pay for bombing brown people weirdly enough.
  • GooberTheHat
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    Why do 'misinformation' campaigns appear to be more effective than 'factual' ones?


    I posted about that last week. 2 secs.

    It's pretty much because those pushing disinformation do so repeatedly, and from multiple channels. It's designed to hit emotional trigger points (anger being the most effective). It then gets picked up and pushed as misinformation by those it triggers, and as a result seems even more credible to the secondary audience, because its coming from someone in their group, who is like them, and who they presumably know, like or respect.
    The human mind is a pretty stupid thing. Here's a few reasons why just discussing crazy things, without a counter argument, can be dangerous;

    When it comes to believing something of which you personally have no way of verifying:

    • Multiple sources are more persuasive than a single source, especially if those sources contain different arguments that point to the same conclusion.
    • Receiving the same or similar message from multiple sources is more persuasive.
    • People assume that information from multiple sources is likely to be based on different perspectives and as such worth greater consideration.
    • Communications from groups to which the recipient belongs are more likely to be perceived as credible. The same applies when the source is perceived as similar to the recipient.

    Now, let's talk about just talking about stuff:

    • Repeated exposure to a statement has been shown to increase its acceptance as true.
    • The “illusory truth effect” is well documented, whereby people rate statements as more truthful, valid, and believable when they have encountered those statements previously than when they are new statements.
    • When people are less interested in a topic, they are more likely to accept familiarity brought about by repetition as an indicator that the information (repeated to the point of familiarity) is correct.
    • When processing information, people often save time and energy by using a frequency heuristic (favoring information they have heard more frequently).
    • Even with preposterous stories and urban legends, those who have heard them multiple times are more likely to believe that they are true.
    • If an individual is already familiar with an argument or claim (has seen it before, for example), they process it less carefully, often failing to discriminate weak arguments from strong arguments.

    But we all know its bollocks right? It's just a bit of fun, no one really believes the crazy stuff, right? :

    • In a phenomenon known as the “sleeper effect,” low- credibility sources manifest greater persuasive impact with the passage of time. While people make initial assessments of the credibility of a source, in remembering, information is often dissociated from its source. Thus, information from a questionable source may be remembered as true, with the source forgotten.
    • Information that is initially assumed valid but is later retracted or proven false can continue to shape people’s memory and influence their reasoning.
    • Even when people are aware that some sources have the potential to contain misinformation, they still show a poor ability to discriminate between information that is false and information that is correct.

    Yeah, but we have evidence, and expert witnesses!" There's a reason why people who are trying to convince you of a conspiracy theory claim they have 'evidence' when they don't, and that people are 'experts' when thay aren't:

    • The presence of evidence can override the effects of source credibility on perceived veracity of statements.
    • In courtroom simulations, witnesses who provide more details—even trivial details—are judged to be more credible.
    • Peripheral cues, such as the appearance of expertise or the format of information, lead people to accept—with little reflection—that the information comes from a credible source.
    • Expertise and trustworthiness are the two primary dimensions of credibility, and these qualities may be evaluated based on visual cues, such as format, appearance, or simple claims of expertise.
  • monkey wrote:
    I honestly think that if RLB wins and Milne stays, much of the party will go and form a new one. They’ve got 5 years to establish themselves. Whether it will work is another matter. But they’re not going to go through this again.

    Like Change UK? How's that working out?

    Soon there will be about ten splinter parties made up of frustrated Labour right-wingers who expected us to hold our noses and vote New Labour forever, whilst they cut and run the minute it looks like they might not get their own way.
  • I’d be really depressed if the next generation of labour is closely linked to corbyn. It would be electoral madness. Nor do I think his team have earnt being anywhere near the leadership of anything.

    I’d like Jess Phillips to be the leader because I think she could actually form a bond with voters across the land.

  • LarryDavid wrote:
    monkey wrote:
    I honestly think that if RLB wins and Milne stays, much of the party will go and form a new one. They’ve got 5 years to establish themselves. Whether it will work is another matter. But they’re not going to go through this again.

    Like Change UK? How's that working out?

    Soon there will be about ten splinter parties made up of frustrated Labour right-wingers who expected us to hold our noses and vote New Labour forever, whilst they cut and run the minute it looks like they might not get their own way.
    No not like Change UK, which seemed to want to be the new Lib Dem’s. Like 100+ MPs setting up shop as ‘True Labour’ or whatever, being the official opposition and trying to be the ‘real voice of the working class’. Funded by mysterious donations.
    I’m not endorsing it, it’s likely to fuck up, I just think that’s what will happen.
  • 'Real Labour - none of that Commie shit, just common sense politics'

    *Unveils even larger 'Controls on Immigration' statue, but this time made from genuine British limestone*
  • Fuck me, if Jess Phillps is the next Labour leader we may as well all give up and become Tories.
  • This leadership contest is really who gets the Labour branding that probably gives you 20% in an election. Either the PLP get it, in which case the party ‘comes together’ ie sidelines Corbynism into oblivion.
    Or RLB gets it and they fuck off. Corbyn’s Labour would be a non-entity. They’d either get no media attention or negative attention. Corbyn would morph from the bumbling incompetent of tabloid-lore into the Machiavellian puppet master pulling RLB’s strings.

    I don’t have much of an opinion on RLB. I saw her in that debate and she seemed ok. I suspect she’d be nowhere near leadership stakes if her politics didn’t happen to be compatible with the memberships. When McDonnell was casting an eye around the room for successors and he saw Richard Burgon, Diane Abbott and Barry Gardiner, then she probably seemed like the obvious choice. She’ll have the stench of Corbyn on her from Day 1 though. The tabs and the Tories will make sure of it.
  • Fuck me, if Jess Phillps is the next Labor leader we may as well all give up and become Tories.
    What are her politics? Why does everyone hate her?
  • I don't think she's that bad, or that good. I've no idea what she stands for other than being a bit gobby.

    She'd enjoy a brief honeymoon whilst everyone collectively breathed a sigh of relief that Labour had stepped back from the brink and re-embraced 'proper politics'. Then she'd get monstered by the rightwing press, without a defense except: "I'm poor Jess, just a humble mother trying to get along. Play nice, will you?"

    She likes to have a nice little chat with Rees-Mogg to see what they've got in common, rather than what divides them. Which is bollocks, as she'd find out when Mogg's eyes finally rolled over like a sharks and he sank his teeth into her, her last conscious thought being: 'so i'm not going to be Prime Minister Jess after all....'

    I don't think she's the kind of canny, smart political operator Labour requires. (Cue 'Corbyn was a smart operator was he, lol' response and audience applause)
  • I'm fine with Phillips. 
    She is a bit bolshy, proper loud mouth but she does good by her constituency.

    I don't think she would be a good leader of the party, I think she would lack the pragmatism needed.
    I would appoint her in a new role of Midlands secretary to ensure that the voice of the Midlands is being heard in the shadow cabinet. Would do the same for a Northern and Southern secretary as well.
  • davyK
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    My short take on that. They work by playing on things that trigger the strongest emotional response, anger and fear.

    It worked for Trump.
    Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009.
  • I think everyone knows someone like Jess Philips. Loud-mouthed, opinionated, always the first person in the room to say what a disgrace something is. Not that bright though. Maybe Philips isn’t at all like this but it’s how she comes across. Brummies are always easy to characterise as a bit thick. She’d be popular with some probably, and the no-nonsense, down to Earth schtick would be a good contrast with the braying Etonians on the other side.

    The most important thing I want from the next leader is that they fuck off in a couple of years if it isn’t working. I want that signed in blood from all of them. Presumably this field will whittle itself down a bit to RLB and then whichever one person is getting the most support from the others.
  • Northern Secretary: flat cap and pipe, pint of bitter super-glued to right hand
    Midlands Secretary: Jasper Carrott
    Southern Secretary: Harry Enfield's 'loadsamoney' character, waving a wad of notes
  • I was thinking more Worzels for the South.
  • Jobshare, like it. Four of 'em on the back of a combine harvester swigging scrumpy.
  • dynamiteReady
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    Why do 'misinformation' campaigns appear to be more effective than 'factual' ones?
    It's pretty much because those pushing disinformation do so repeatedly, and from multiple channels. It's designed to hit emotional trigger points (anger being the most effective). It then gets picked up and pushed as misinformation by those it triggers, and as a result seems even more credible to the secondary audience, because its coming from someone in their group, who is like them, and who they presumably know, like or respect.

    These quote landed on my lap recently:

    There was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyways always yield to the stronger, and this will always be ‘the man in the street.’ Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology.

    Intellectual activity is a danger to the building of character.

    The rank and file are usually much more primitive than we imagine. Propaganda must therefore always be essentially simple and repetitive. In the long run basic results in influencing public opinion will be achieved only by the man who is able to reduce problems to the simplest terms and who has the courage to keep forever repeating them in this simplified form, despite the objections of the intellectuals.

    What you want in a media system is ostensible diversity that conceals an actual uniformity.

    This is the thing.

    What's so complicated about 'Boris Johnson is a liar, a racist, and he will sell your mum'?
    "I didn't get it. BUUUUUUUUUUUT, you fucking do your thing." - Roujin
    Ninty Code: SW-7904-0771-0996
  • Phillips had a smaller percentage loss of votes this election (-2.3%) than 
    Corbyn (-8.7%)
    Starmer (-5.6%)
    Long-Bailey (-8.7%) 
    Thornberry (-6.6%) 
    Cooper(-21.6%) 
    Nandy (-15.5%) 
    and Rayner (-12.3%).

    Like I say I don't think she is leader material but there is something about her that people like.
  • LivDiv wrote:
    I'm fine with Phillips.  She is a bit bolshy, proper loud mouth but she does good by her constituency. I don't think she would be a good leader of the party, I think she would lack the pragmatism needed. I would appoint her in a new role of Midlands secretary to ensure that the voice of the Midlands is being heard in the shadow cabinet. Would do the same for a Northern and Southern secretary as well.

    Unless the person in her constituency isn't white. Or an immigrant. Or a sex worker. Or a socialist. Or a trade union memeber.
  • Phillips would work better as Deputy. The new John Prescott. Spewing blunt, matter-of-fact, take downs of the Tories without spooking middle England. Subordinate to a suave, white male centrist who 'accepts the reality' of NHS privatisation. Sorry ladies, 2nd prize again, maybe next time.
  • I'd join but there's no way they'd accept me.
    Why not?

    Don't think I answered this. I stood for the Greens in 2015 and 2016. I'd be considered a Trotskyist entryist.
  • GooberTheHat
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    Why do 'misinformation' campaigns appear to be more effective than 'factual' ones?
    It's pretty much because those pushing disinformation do so repeatedly, and from multiple channels. It's designed to hit emotional trigger points (anger being the most effective). It then gets picked up and pushed as misinformation by those it triggers, and as a result seems even more credible to the secondary audience, because its coming from someone in their group, who is like them, and who they presumably know, like or respect.

    These quote landed on my lap recently:

    There was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyways always yield to the stronger, and this will always be ‘the man in the street.’ Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology.

    Intellectual activity is a danger to the building of character.

    The rank and file are usually much more primitive than we imagine. Propaganda must therefore always be essentially simple and repetitive. In the long run basic results in influencing public opinion will be achieved only by the man who is able to reduce problems to the simplest terms and who has the courage to keep forever repeating them in this simplified form, despite the objections of the intellectuals.

    What you want in a media system is ostensible diversity that conceals an actual uniformity.

    This is the thing.

    What's so complicated about 'Boris Johnson is a liar, a racist, and he will sell your mum'?

    Saying Boris Johnson is any of those things doesn't get enough people angry though.

    "He's a liar" - yeah, but all politicians are.

    "He's racist" - he just says it how it is.

    "he will sell your mum" - he's got a good grasp on the economy.
  • monkey wrote:
    I honestly think that if RLB wins and Milne stays, much of the party will go and form a new one. They’ve got 5 years to establish themselves. Whether it will work is another matter. But they’re not going to go through this again.
    Milne is finished. Let's not associate Long Bailey with Corbyn without hearing her out first, eh.

    Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms
  • My concern for Long-Bailey is she will already be associated with Corbyn by the public. It isn't an insurmountable hurdle but a hurdle none the less and Labour don't need more of those.
    But yeah, let's wait and see what happens once things actually get started.
  • "Brexit isn't getting done. We're getting done." was the snappiest anti-Johnson line I heard during the election. No one wants to be the conman's mark. Keep inserting the idea in there that this is a conman who is playing you for fools. 

    Like with Trump, I don't think people are personally offended by a lot of what Johnson says and does. They'd do it, if they could get away with it. They've said some dodgy stuff behind closed doors. They've been tempted to have the odd fling. They've dangled from a zip line in an ill-advised publicity stunt.
  • LivDiv wrote:
    My concern for Long-Bailey is she will already be associated with Corbyn by the public. It isn't an insurmountable hurdle but a hurdle none the less and Labour don't need more of those.
    But yeah, let's wait and see what happens once things actually get started.

    She'll have 5 years to make her mark, 3 at least before it becomes a real contest. Im not in favour of dissing loyalty and solidarity. These young MPs were called upon to join a shadow cabinet which was struggling to make up the numbers, as some might recall. Until 2017 corbo literally couldn't find enough MPs to sit on the front bench.
    Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms
  • GooberTheHat
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    monkey wrote:
    "Brexit isn't getting done. We're getting done." was the snappiest anti-Johnson line I heard during the election. No one wants to be the conman's mark. Keep inserting the idea in there that this is a conman who is playing you for fools. 

    Like with Trump, I don't think people are personally offended by a lot of what Johnson says and does. They'd do it, if they could get away with it. They've said some dodgy stuff behind closed doors. They've been tempted to have the odd fling. They've dangled from a zip line in an ill-advised publicity stunt.

    No one cared though. Get brexit done works. It's what people wanted. Most don't care what that actually means though.
  • monkey wrote:
    I honestly think that if RLB wins and Milne stays, much of the party will go and form a new one. They’ve got 5 years to establish themselves. Whether it will work is another matter. But they’re not going to go through this again.
    Milne is finished. Let's not associate Long Bailey with Corbyn without hearing her out first, eh.
    LivDiv wrote:
    My concern for Long-Bailey is she will already be associated with Corbyn by the public. It isn't an insurmountable hurdle but a hurdle none the less and Labour don't need more of those. But yeah, let's wait and see what happens once things actually get started.
    Liv's response is also mine. I'll be open-minded about it. She won't be able to ride two horses afaic though. She will be deliberately courting the Corbyn vote by promising continuity, she appears to be the approved Corbyn candidate. She won't then be able to turn round and say it's unfair if people think she's Corbyn 2.0.
  • monkey wrote:
    monkey wrote:
    I honestly think that if RLB wins and Milne stays, much of the party will go and form a new one. They’ve got 5 years to establish themselves. Whether it will work is another matter. But they’re not going to go through this again.
    Milne is finished. Let's not associate Long Bailey with Corbyn without hearing her out first, eh.
    LivDiv wrote:
    My concern for Long-Bailey is she will already be associated with Corbyn by the public. It isn't an insurmountable hurdle but a hurdle none the less and Labour don't need more of those. But yeah, let's wait and see what happens once things actually get started.
    Liv's response is also mine. I'll be open-minded about it. She won't be able to ride two horses afaic though. She will be deliberately courting the Corbyn vote by promising continuity, she appears to be the approved Corbyn candidate. She won't then be able to turn round and say it's unfair if people think she's Corbyn 2.0.

    That reasoning cuts both ways. Plus the Corbyn voters will vote again, it's the new votes we need to get, black and ethnic minorities, white working class, and young people.
    Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms
  • Paul the sparky
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    Saying Boris Johnson is any of those things doesn't get enough people angry though.

    "He's a liar" - yeah, but all politicians are.

    "He's racist" - he just says it how it is.

    "he will sell your mum" - he's got a good grasp on the economy.

    Depressingly true.

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