Paranoia intensifies

Surely it's unlikely that there aren't any aliens out there, if you keep going far enough? Doubt there'd ever be any meeting of different aliens (us - them) but if space is infinite (is it?) then eventually there will be some, no?

Given the size of the universe etc... It's more unlikely that there isn't.

Eventually we'll find a bunch of aliens typing Shakespeare, or something.

Are you calling Klingons monkeys?
Racist.

I've watched that Joe Rogan cast and watched the Netflix documentary.
I'm now convinced Bob Lazar did it, he killed Kennedy.

nick_md wrote:

Surely it's unlikely that there aren't any aliens out there, if you keep going far enough? Doubt there'd ever be any meeting of different aliens (us - them) but if space is infinite (is it?) then eventually there will be some, no?

Well, there are a finite number of planets, aren’t there? A fraction of which could sustain life. But still, given the sheer numbers, it seems likely that there will be life somewhere at some point. Intelligent life? Possibly. But you’re right that it’s unlikely that there will ever be any interaction. On this particular planet, the life which has been capable of achieving space flight has existed for about 1 fifteen-thousandth of the planet’s lifespan, and has only been able to do so for 1 seventy-eight-millionth of the planet’s existence. The odds of other life forms achieving the same thing in the same window, and surpassing that achievement and travelling across and between galaxies (considering we’ve only made it as far as our moon) and finding us... nah.

It's a sheer numbers game that makes life elsewhere a distinct possibility.

As to its level of sophistication that's another matter. 

The numbers drop again to those that have some method of traversing vast distances and have a way of detecting advanced life at at least a galaxy level whilst having not either blown themselves up or consumed or poisoned themselves out of existence.

That's what makes finding alien craft unlikely in my estimation.

Would need some figures.

For example - how old is our solar system and how long did it take our civilisation to appear?

Take those numbers and apply them to the age of our galaxy and the number of systems there are to give an estimate of how many civilisations at our level might exist in our galaxy.

Then guess how long it would take us to develop interstellar drive and galaxy wide monitoring and extrapolate a guess at how many civilisations could theoretically visit us.

I imagine the numbers aren't good.

If inter galactic travel is possible that might help of course.

But if you believe the universe is infinite then not only has a visit happened , but a huge if not infinite number of them have. So I guess that rules that concept out.

.

Which then leads us neatly onto the Fermi paradox:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Edit: outathaway, Unlikely.

I doubt it’s Lazar but I find it absolutely believable that some governments (I’m looking squarely at the US here) would have people employed purely to misdirect and keep conspiracy nuts busy and harmless.

Unlikely wrote:

Unless I'm missing something only the first three of those variables at the most can be defined, so that's complete nonsense.

It's a way of giving you probabilities, so everything after 3 is indeed a guess. It wasn't intended as a factual equation, just the start of a discussion point.

There is considerable disagreement on the values of these parameters, but the 'educated guesses' used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:[17][18]

R∗ = 1 yr−1 (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000 to 100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Inserting the above minimum numbers into the equation gives a minimum N of 20 (see: Range of results). Inserting the maximum numbers gives a maximum of 50,000,000. Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

Unlikely wrote:

Unless I'm missing something only the first three of those variables at the most can be defined, so that's complete nonsense.

Yeah... Seti has more of an open minded take on it - https://www.seti.org/drake-equation-index

But it's cool to be a dick, I guess.

Just wanted to point out that after a very quick search, it looks like there are a number of people who don't think the idea is nonsense.

I'm not going to 'beat that drum' too hard though.

It's not my favourite subject.

bad_hair_day wrote:

Except Bob Lazar didn't say fuck all for 25 years or so.

How many in here have watched the 2018 admittedly over stylised documentary on all this? I'd rather not believe him because if what he's saying is true, and the US crack this tech, you think Uncle Sam is a bad relation now? Jesus, fuck.

I watched it. I get the impression that the young Bob Lazar is a liar. I don't know his motivation but really who knows what motivates people? It could be lots of things outside the obvious money and fame. Maybe he couldn't even articulate it himself. He sounds confident and sure because he's been telling more or less exactly the same story for 30 years. He has it down to pat, including all possible questions.

The alien tech thing has been a conspiracy since the 50s. Funny how it starts just as the cold war starts. If they've been looking at this tech since Roswell in the 50s then where is all our space stuff? There's nothing we have that doesn't have a clear history of scientific research. There's no magic tech appearing out of nowhere.