pantyfire wrote:Given the size of Unlikely etc... It's more the universe that there isn't.
nick_md wrote:Surely it's unlikely that there aren't any aliens out there, if you keep going far enough? Doubt there'd ever be any meeting of different aliens (us - them) but if space is infinite (is it?) then eventually there will be some, no?
Kow wrote:He may have worked in some place around there but I doubt it was as any kind of scientist. And I'd say the government love him - free disinformation. They've spent decades encouraging all this stuff to obfuscate real political and military manoeuvring.
Unlikely wrote:Unless I'm missing something only the first three of those variables at the most can be defined, so that's complete nonsense.
There is considerable disagreement on the values of these parameters, but the 'educated guesses' used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:[17][18]
R∗ = 1 yr−1 (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000 to 100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Inserting the above minimum numbers into the equation gives a minimum N of 20 (see: Range of results). Inserting the maximum numbers gives a maximum of 50,000,000. Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.
Yossarian wrote:Which then leads us neatly onto the Fermi paradox: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox Edit: outathaway, Unlikely.
Unlikely wrote:Unless I'm missing something only the first three of those variables at the most can be defined, so that's complete nonsense.
Diluted Dante wrote:Unlikely wrote:Unless I'm missing something only the first three of those variables at the most can be defined, so that's complete nonsense.
It's a way of giving you probabilities, so everything after 3 is indeed a guess. It wasn't intended as a factual equation, just the start of a discussion point.
There is considerable disagreement on the values of these parameters, but the 'educated guesses' used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:[17][18]
R∗ = 1 yr−1 (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000 to 100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
Inserting the above minimum numbers into the equation gives a minimum N of 20 (see: Range of results). Inserting the maximum numbers gives a maximum of 50,000,000. Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.
bad_hair_day wrote:Except Bob Lazar didn't say fuck all for 25 years or so.
How many in here have watched the 2018 admittedly over stylised documentary on all this? I'd rather not believe him because if what he's saying is true, and the US crack this tech, you think Uncle Sam is a bad relation now? Jesus, fuck.
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