Current Affairs - The Bear and Badger

davyK

Pulling economics levers is like playing 4 dimensional kerplunk.

dynamiteReady

dynamiteReady wrote:

Our government is probably worrying about gas supply in a situation that's already surprisingly volatile. The Russians route a lot of natural gas through pipes that roll through Belarus, into Poland. The Russians themselves say they'll guarantee the pipelines will stay open, which doesn't sound like Lukashenko will be offered much protection if things escalate. But this impasse crystalized in such an unpredictable fashion... The EU want to impose trade sanctions against the Belrussians to resolve the impasse. But the Belarussians have engineered this crisis in response to sanctions imposed on their government after the Roman Protasevich affair, which I'll admit, barely registered with me at the time. One of my key questions about this, is why is the EU so prepared to risk this much, over this one particular political dissident? I digress. Apparently, the current plan is for the EU, backed by NATO, to respond to Lukashenko with further sanctions. Lukashenko fired back with the gas threat.

Given the strange state of affairs in Armenia, Georgia and, of course, Ukraine, it's hard to imagine the Russians wanting to throw this bellend under a bus.

God knows what the fuck is going on now.

Escape

Kow wrote:

Castilla la Mancha, Spain.

Any tips on gaining an edge?

Kow

Be the fuck.

RedDave2

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/russia-set-to-join-growing-number-of-countries-banning-cryptocurrencies-41262514.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=IN:Business&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3ZS03YmJhLTY1ZTUtOTJmZS0xZTU4YjIxM2JjMDHaACQ2MWRmNzYzMC01NzE4LTQ2MDQtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjZDbaACRmMTg0ODJiYS1jZDZkLTQzM2YtOTAzZC00OTI0NGI0OGJjOGMsXH277K-CgIU-owXT_Zrkg3SvUTb5TBYW8fvADdJLbg

When Russia start clamping down on this stuff, should that be the biggest red flag? Really dont know enough about this stuff.

Yossarian

Probably just Putin concerned that people may have found a way of making illegal payments that cuts out his kickback.

GooberTheHat

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60106416

Looks like things with Russia and Ukraine might be reaching boiling point.

RedDave2

Just what the world needs as we try to get out of covid 19. A war.

Fuck me, never stops.

hunk

Imho, the breakup of the USSR and the loss of its regions (Ukraine/ Kazachstan) are the reasons why Russia lashed out at the West in 2016 (Trump and Brexit). Ukraine being possibly admitted to the EU soon being the final kicker that sent the old Garde seething.

Oliver Stone asked for a why to the 'meddling' in his Putin documentary. The answer was staring him right in the face yet he was unable to see it.

GooberTheHat

Also, discrediting western liberal democracies is a net positive for illiberal authoritarians.

mistercrayon

GooberTheHat wrote:

Also, discrediting western liberal democracies is a net positive for illiberal authoritarians.

Boris Johnson government in a nutshell.

davyK

hunk wrote:

Imho, the breakup of the USSR and the loss of its regions (Ukraine/ Kazachstan) are the reasons why Russia lashed out at the West in 2016 (Trump and Brexit). Ukraine being possibly admitted to the EU soon being the final kicker that sent the old Garde seething. Oliver Stone asked for a why to the 'meddling' in his Putin documentary. The answer was staring him right in the face yet he was unable to see it.

Watched a YT video (will provide a link) that gives an interesting view upon Putin. It asserts that when Germany was reunified, the deal was that NATO would not move a single mile east. It reneged on that. His mistrust of the West is based on that.

Putin also is supposed to have asked to join NATO and the EU. Was rebuffed.

It's also worth noting that the Cuban Missile crisis was a response by Russia to the US plonking missiles on the Turkish border. The deal that ended the crisis involved their removal.

Actions are sometimes reactions.

davyK

Here it is.

GooberTheHat

It's a very predictable response from Russia, but it also is a convenient way of dismissing the autonomy and self determination of the populations of all those countries that Russia feel should be within their sphere of influence.

All of the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine democratically elected governments that wanted closer ties with the west.

davyK

It's a damn complicated part of the world. Borders. Some countries have parts that are not ethically aligned with the nationality.

A bit like where I live..

GooberTheHat

That's true of most countries around the world though.

dynamiteReady

The president of Armenia has resigned today, right? Dude doesn't want it.
At any rate, I think it's an ominous sign.

I also wonder if Roman Protasevich was a spy? Because that was a huge turning point, and I can't imagine why else NATO would want to risk so much for him.

hunk

davyK wrote:

Imho, the breakup of the USSR and the loss of its regions (Ukraine/ Kazachstan) are the reasons why Russia lashed out at the West in 2016 (Trump and Brexit). Ukraine being possibly admitted to the EU soon being the final kicker that sent the old Garde seething. Oliver Stone asked for a why to the 'meddling' in his Putin documentary. The answer was staring him right in the face yet he was unable to see it.

Watched a YT video (will provide a link) that gives an interesting view upon Putin. It asserts that when Germany was reunified, the deal was that NATO would not move a single mile east. It reneged on that. His mistrust of the West is based on that. Putin also is supposed to have asked to join NATO and the EU. Was rebuffed. It's also worth noting that the Cuban Missile crisis was a response by Russia to the US plonking missiles on the Turkish border. The deal that ended the crisis involved their removal. Actions are sometimes reactions.

It wouldn't surprise me if certain powerful factions in Russia believe that the USSR was infected and destroyed by western propaganda of perestrojka and glasnost; the nation eventually imploding at the end of the cold war. 2016 was certain payback. The trigger was probably Ukraine and the possible 'assimilation' of it into the EU/NATO.

The resentment is deep and goes way way back to the cold war.

LivDiv

Whatever Russia's motivations and intents are with Ukraine we could do without our own Poundland Churchill eyeing an opportunity to shift attention away from his own corruption.

GooberTheHat

https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1485970532315062273?s=20

Looks like Russian equipment being moved close to the Ukrainian border in Belarus. If they do invade I imagine this lot will be heading directly towards Kiev.

GooberTheHat

And incase you were still wondering if the American right were compromised by Russia, Tucker Carlson is pushing tha the US should support Russia against Ukraine!

Funkstain

Not sure Putin will feel he can back down now. NATO has called his (what some think was a) bluff, trying to force Ukraine into some concessions. No winners here if tanks roll in .

Not going to be an occupation is it? They don’t have the manpower or money or organisation or will, they’d get guerilla’d to fuck with serious resistance. Putin just wants to hugely disrupt Kiev, fuck up some gov members and install friendly ones and anti nato ones, who accept crimea is Russian and job done. Right?

RedDave2

I'm no expert but certainly most of the reports I've heard / read seem to indicate that Ukraine would be a hard country to invade for a Russian army thats not that powerful.

But who knows? Putin is old enough that maybe he feels he has nothing to lose. It won't be him on the front line.

GooberTheHat

RedDave2 wrote:

I'm no expert but certainly most of the reports I've heard / read seem to indicate that Ukraine would be a hard country to invade for a Russian army thats not that powerful.

But who knows? Putin is old enough that maybe he feels he has nothing to lose. It won't be him on the front line.

They wouldn't have too much difficulty winning a conventional conflict. As soon as it becomes a western backed insurgency then that's a different story entirely. Funks take is probably the most likely result. Lighting fast strike into Kiev, secure the Donbass region, depose the current govt and install a puppet president, before withdrawing.

Funkstain

The thing is - when you write it down, or you think about it with your generals or whatever, it all seems very likely. You think about risks and contingencies, you analyse relative military strength and likelihood of resistance etc, and yeah going in quick, achieving the strategic aims (Donbass, puppet Kiev), and get out to rapturous domestic approval and military goals met.

But

It's never ever like that. It's chaos and random human factors (morale, pay, weather, equipment, patriotism, civilian resistance vs military capability, terrorism in Russia and so on and so on) play so much of a part. Inevitably if this goes ahead there will be carnage and atrocities on both sides, although arguably as aggressor Russia will invite bad things upon themselves, and there is no real understanding on my part of what NATO and affiliated forces will do (probably not much but who the fuck knows, and things change so quickly on the ground).

I do think Putin is biting off more than he can chew here, and getting to Kiev is one thing, getting out with strategic goals achieved without at the very least hugely significant consequences for the region, Russia, and Putin personally is a totally different thing.

It happens to all of us: 20+ years in total power leads to blinding arrogance

GooberTheHat

Oh I totally agree. If they do go in, regardless of whatever their strategic intentions actually are it will be a cluster fuck of epic proportions, with predictable and unpredictable repercussions for decades.

mistercrayon

Also you’d imagine there’s very few people who’d say “yo, Putes, buddy, I don’t think this is a good idea”.

RedDave2

Apparently Ukraine is quite vast and hard to navigate so even without western backing it wouldn't be as straight forward as some think.

Wookienopants

RedDave2 wrote:

Apparently Ukraine is quite vast and hard to navigate so even without western backing it wouldn't be as straight forward as some think.

I heard there's some hills

RedDave2

Wookienopants wrote:

RedDave2 wrote:

Apparently Ukraine is quite vast and hard to navigate so even without western backing it wouldn't be as straight forward as some think.

I heard there's some hills

And the Russians haven't boosted their grapple yet.

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