The British Politics Thread - The Bear and Badger

LivDiv

This mud slinging is what it is. Dirty desperate politics and just proves that Boris knows he will have to make the request.

The EU won't cave. They will not allow a no deal Brexit to be put on their heads so as long as we request an extension they will grant one, especially as it is clear as day that a GE will happen and will potentially provide new avenues.

EU nations, particularly Germany know the dangers in one group of countries punishing a single nation for the stupidity of their leaders.
While a no deal will obviously damage the UK more than the EU it will still harm the EU politically and economically. They cant do anything about a decision on the UK's part to leave without a deal but they will be held accountable in their own nations if they do not give every reasonable opportunity to avert such a crisis.

Not to mention the reality the EU know and recognise is that the slowest way to come out the other side into some semblance of normality is with a no deal Brexit. A 3 month extension will be dwarfed by the paperwork and negotiations alone.

Yossarian

Missed all this convo the other day, but:

hunk wrote:

That's Team Boris' loophole to achieve Brexit on halloween?
Hmmm...

David Allen Green has this covered:

The constitutional position is simple

It is not open to the government, by Order in Council or side letter or a message written on the side of a startled cow, to do a thing which circumvents or frustrates a statute

Public law 101, 1968 case of Padfield

And any attempt at such tomfoolery can and would be quashed by the High Court on the basic Padfield constitutional principle within a couple of days, if not a few hours

Principle so basic it would not need to go to Supreme Court

"What about this to side-step the Benn Act?

- No, Padfield, constitutional law 101, government cannot frustrate statute

"Side letter to EU?"

- No, Padfield

"Order in Council?"

- No, Padfield

"What about..."

- Still no

"Emergency powers?"

- No, for even more legal reasons

General purpose tweet

To any piece of the form "Has [x] discovered a way round the Benn Act?"

The initial answer is "No, Padfield"

Only if the piece explains how the 1968 case of Padfield is also sidestepped, then the piece is legally worthless briefed by the legally amateur

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1177490685919821832

We aren’t leaving on the 31st.

Diluted Dante

Could he agree a deal and set aside 10 days of debate on it?

Yossarian

Diluted Dante wrote:

Could he agree a deal and set aside 10 days of debate on it?

Seems unlikely.

Yossarian

Figured I’d look into this, and the Benn act states that any deal must have been agreed by parliament by the 19th so no, Johnson can’t set debates for after that date.

Diluted Dante

Wait, Parliament re-opens on the 14th, and you then have six days of debates on that.

Which means he'll have to request an extension even if he gets a deal

Yossarian

More analysis here:

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/10/09/jeff-king-the-prime-ministers-constitutional-options-after-the-benn-act-part-i/

And here:

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/10/10/jeff-king-the-prime-ministers-constitutional-options-after-the-benn-act-part-ii/

AndCallMeCharlie

Right now a second ref seems more likely than leaving on the 31st.

dynamiteReady

News of optimism for a deal, apparently.
It's suspicious...

The Cons have something up their sleeve...

It's either a white flag, or a lead pipe.

hunk

Could be the Cons are going for the scrappy deal option as no deal seems to be permanently blocked.
Not sure what this means for NI though. Once Brexit is done expect them to do a quick sloppy trade deal with the US while Trump is still at the helm. Acompanied by a bonfire of regulations and a wave of privatisation (aka disaster capitalism).

RamSteelwood

i see BoJo coming back with May's deal and a slightly reworded backstop. It will then be put to parliament in a take it or no deal it. If rejected, regardless of the fallout from the Benn act it's going to start a very nasty campaign of 'they blocked a deal and they blocked no deal they're stealing democracy'.
and if parliament accept the deal as the least worst option then BoJo lauds over everyone as a tactical genius who delivered on his promise of brexit.

Diluted Dante

That's exactly what his 'deal' has always been. the only thing he's been trying to change is the backstop, the rest of the WA is word for word the same.

The same WA plenty of Tories said was unacceptable, but will apparently back now Johnson is proposing it.

acemuzzy

But what about my niece Polly?

Yossarian

She has ticks.

acemuzzy

✓

(or did you mean tics? she does have a nervous disposition...)

Yossarian

No, ticks, she’s covered in parasites.

Armitage_Shankburn

acemuzzy wrote:

But what about my niece Polly?

Haha

LivDiv

Bojo will do an Irish Sea border. It was always going to be that as it's the only thing that gets rid of the backstop without alignment for the whole of the UK.
It won't pass the Commons.

The SNP and Plaid will blow their lids if NI is allowed to stay in the customs union and they aren't. Plus the DUP will shit a brick.
Swinson is picking out curtains for No.10 so won't back anything.
Labour wont back anything that doesn't secure worker rights and jobs.

davyK

I'm betting the DUP are under a bus.

There are those here who think it could be good for us having a half-way-house status which would make us unique and could be a trade center for UK/EU.

The DUP probably know that but can't stomach it because they see it has a thin end of the wedge type thing. It might screw them electorally if it happens - or it could harden the arsehole vote here which keeps them in.

Will really piss off the Scottish of course.

I may be mistaken but I think we are back to the original EU proposal that May rejected because she was in hock to the DUP after the insane GE call.

There could be a royal kick off here on the unionist/loyalist side of course. But no matter what the outcome that would happen anyhow. Sigh. The marching season has ended here and unsightly flags on lamp posts are more or less gone now - but this could kick off street activity.

monkey

It’ll be the end of Great Britain.

LivDiv

@Davy
Yeah pretty much.
She requested the back stop to be extended to the whole of the UK.

@Monkey
Yeah pretty much.

monkey

God that sounds like a Daily Mail comment read back. The scots probably aren’t sticking around if Brexit goes through. They definitely aren’t if NI is allowed to stay in the single market and they’re pulled into the fantasy trade deal replacement nightmare.

davyK

NI in the zone is the only way really. But it will kick up a stink here politically.

Hopefully Sinn Fein will have the good sense to just shut up and stop droning on about a border poll for a while.

RedDave2

davyK wrote:

NI in the zone is the only way really. But it will kick up a stink here politically.

Hopefully Sinn Fein will have the good sense to just shut up and stop droning on about a border poll for a while.

There isn't enough will for the United Ireland yet here in the south. I still think the North could really benefit as a halfway zone between eu/ UK. Hope that's the way it goes.

Yossarian

I’m struggling to see how this type of arrangement gets through Parliament. And it definitely isn’t leading to an electoral pact with BXP.

davyK

RedDave2 wrote:

NI in the zone is the only way really. But it will kick up a stink here politically. Hopefully Sinn Fein will have the good sense to just shut up and stop droning on about a border poll for a while.

There isn't enough will for the United Ireland yet here in the south. I still think the North could really benefit as a halfway zone between eu/ UK. Hope that's the way it goes.

I agree. And despite the 50/50 religious share here now, I'm not convinced a unite vote would be returned here mainly for economic/tax reasons.

It needs both votes to go that way as far as I know. And I doubt the South would want the hassle of taking us on any time soon. The day will come though.

The SF honeymoon period has definitely ended in the South too (not that it amounted to much anyhow). Higgins was giving them a kicking recently.

Lord_Griff

I like the renewed optimism resultant from this fudge.

hunk

Lol, I just realised a company called Fisher investments is targeting online ads at me on Brexit and speculating on the pound with the looming recession. Yay, disaster capitalism!

LarryDavid

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voter-id-photo-uk-government-conservatives-queens-speech-elections-polling-a9154936.html

Another move stolen straight from the Republican playbook, attempting to suppress voters who aren’t likely to vote Tory.

poprock

Did Boris Johnson actually just quote Goldie Lookin’ Chain in Parliament?

We live in the strangest timeline.

Howdy, Stranger!

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