The British Politics Thread
  • acemuzzy
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    Not obvious the DUP can back down from their current stance, even with cash. They're starting it pretty emphatically. Which I think would mean a pretty definitive "no" on Saturday.

    Interesting what happens then, if so. Maybe Yoss is right #shenannigans but I suspect more likely a horrible, divisive GE. Left wing parties doing sensible things together will be the key, but I worry about that happening with current Labour and Lib Dem leaders...
  • Yossarian
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    I feel like a GE is probably more likely than a second ref at this moment in time, but on the plus side it sounds like Farage will be taking lumps out of the Tories over this.
  • There is plenty of talk of a 2nd ref amendment being attached to the deal when it goes to the Commons.
    I think it will hinge on if that amendment passes.
  • acemuzzy
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    Yossarian wrote:
    Looks like Johnson’s ploy to get this passed is to ask the E.U. to rule out another extension.
    Junker has now said this, with BS rationale (there's been a deal in the table for ages).

    FFS.
  • It doesnt sound good but I dont believe anything until it is confirmed officially by going through the processes.
    It could just be tough talk to get the deal through.
    He says Britain has a deal, it doesn't, Boris Johnson has a deal.
  • acemuzzy
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    True. And kinda what I'm hoping. No vote on Saturday and he needs to send that letter after regardless, and no deal is inching closer at that point, and I'm pretty sure that is not what the EU want (least of all perceived as it being their fault)
  • The EU want a deal. They dont really care if we stay, thoughthey would prefer it, they just want the saga over.

    If there is a deal they can live with, they'll do what they can to get us to put it through. If we turn it down though I believe they will go extension over no deal.
  • Yossarian
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    acemuzzy wrote:
    Yossarian wrote:
    Looks like Johnson’s ploy to get this passed is to ask the E.U. to rule out another extension.
    Junker has now said this

    Not quite, it seems:

    Have been pointed to his exact formulation of words: "This deal means there is no need for any kind of prolongation.”

    Which isn’t quite the same thing as ruling out extension. It’s just saying that with a deal, there shouldn’t be a need for one.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1184826799366295552
  • Juncker doesn’t have the power to independently refuse an extension. He’s just trying to exert some influence over those who will eventually vote on the issue by saying it in public.
  • Wouldn't at all be like the press to breathlessly screech the latest updates on twitter for everyone to froth over before actually considering the substance of the language used, would it?
  • To me he’s trying to say if there’s an extension it won’t be the EU’s fault.
  • I feel like they should pin a referendum to this. Boris Johnson can’t say it’s not brexit and should be willing to put it up to it. It might even win but at least that would be democratic.
  • Yossarian
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    I still feel like that’s the only way this gets resolved. Have done for most of the last 3 years.
  • acemuzzy
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    Some folk want remain as the alternative, some any no deal, how do you square that away?
  • Yossarian
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    I don’t mind having some sort of alternative vote system.
  • acemuzzy
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    Others will though
  • Yossarian
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    Probably, but I still don’t see any other way forward.
  • Yossarian
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    I suppose, if by some miracle a GE produces a majority government, but that seems unlikely to me.
  • davyK
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    Vote for a referendum on Saturday?
    Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009.
  • Yossarian
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    Looking unlikely, the PV people aren’t pushing for one, they don’t think they have the votes.
  • I'm not saying this deal is all roses by any stretch but if parliament rejects this deal, than what can be expected from the EU? Two agreements with the British prime ministers, if this doesn't pass what's the realistic outcome?

    Not saying this as an argument against anyone but what would corbyn and Labour change to get a deal that would pass parliament, regardless of what they would negotiate different with the EU? Is the argument to not vote this through based on the need to let people have the final say (between this deal, no deal and maybe remain)
    SFV - reddave360
  • acemuzzy
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    Something softer could get more votes? Mayber?? Obviously different votes though...
  • acemuzzy
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    Or, revoke. Woo.
  • acemuzzy wrote:
    Something softer could get more votes? Mayber?? Obviously different votes though...

    Yeah, I get that but what exactly? And is it something that would also pass the EU. Just feel we are stuck on repeat here. The referendum idea makes the most sense but then I don't know if parliament will pass that either
    SFV - reddave360
  • The problem is while there might have been 3 years and 2 PMs at no point has the Government attempted to negotiate a deal that that could pass Parliament.

    A Brexit deal has a two party sign off, the EU and Parliament. The government's approach has been to try to railroad their deal through with threats of no deal or by shouting down the opposition parties. The problem is even if united the Tory party never had a majority, even propped up by the DUP their government had a small majority.

    This approach entrenched opinions in parliament and in the public.
    Flexibility has gone out the window and camps have formed. The SNP see it as an opportunity for indyref 2 so won't budge. Lib Dems are on a power trip. Tories are scared of Farage and Labour are conflicted between the wants of their leader and the wants of the members.

    So what could pass parliament?
    It is hard to say this side of a GE. Depending on how close how close this deal comes a softening of it to protect worker rights and jobs would probably see it pass. That has little to nothing to do with the EU as well so wouldnt need renegotiation.

    On the other side of a GE it all depends on how the seats fall, who props up who etc.
    Lab or Lab coalition would lead to a softer deal attached to a 2nd ref.
    More Tory numbers would see the deal pass.

    A big issue currently is we have an unelected PM who has been repeatedly beaten in Parliament because he holds a majority of minus forty something. He has no real authority.

    For better or worse there are three major reasons we havent left with a deal yet.
    1. Gina Miller, so Parliament have to approve it.
    2. May's General Election
    3. May and Johnson's refusal for a cross party approach to a deal.
  • Yeah, the problem is that for the entire 3 years, we've had a Conservative Government that had no interest whatsoever in building bridges with the 48%, and took an incredibly narrow margin of victory as a mandate to railroad through the most extreme version of leaving. Their red lines have been the cause of all of the problems.

    It's way too late to do what we should have done in the first place, which is to take time to build a consensus on what leaving should look like, but I think a post election Labour Party could negotiate a deal that could pass, albeit conditional on confirmation via referendum.
  • LivDiv wrote:
    The problem is even if united the Tory party never had a majority, even propped up by the DUP their government had a small majority.

    Fundamentally not true. The post-coalition gov was an unexpected Tory majority, which led to the referendum. Cameron lost, of course, but at that point:

    1) Torys were the gov
    2) Torys were the majority 

    The minority thing happened when May gambled on a general election to get a better majority to get her deal through and failed.

    tl;dr

    the plan failed not because there wasn't a majority, but because torys didn't vote for tory policy
  • Any consensus with Labour = soft Brexit = Tory rebellion and voters claiming a stitch up. There just isn’t a majority for any form of Brexit. They’re all shit. None of them resemble what was promised. And few people are prepared to put their name to something that betrays the wishes of their voters. Like everything else, this situation isn’t helped by adding in more Jeremy Corbyn.

    2nd ref or GE with (unlike 2017) substantially different, realistic, enactable Brexit positions is the only way out.

    Making Johnson campaign on a platform of the terrible reality of his deal while Farage can just make shit up about how brill a no deal would be is straight from Hell’s Ironic Punishments Division.
  • @Cinty
    Sorry, I meant after May gambled on the GE. Which is the vast majority of the period that negotiations have taken place in, or at least the period all votes on a deal have taken place in.
    So the point stands that negotiations have been to suit a small to no majority.
  • LivDiv wrote:
    @Cinty Sorry, I meant after May gambled on the GE. Which is the vast majority of the period that negotiations have taken place in, or at least the period all votes on a deal have taken place in.

    You mean the period when the gov had a coalition majority?

    The Torys didn't vote for tory majority legislation.

    The Torys and DUP didn't vote for their own legislation

    The opposition of Labour, The Lib Dems, The greens and the rest has been purely academic for the past 2 parliaments. The government hasn't voted for its own measures.

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