Politics of the Free - It’s because Democrats, stupid. - The Bear and Badger

Brooks

Engaging poddery covering the actual uh mechanics of an Iran/US war. Conclusion: US needs to get the fuck out the Middle East as a matter of practicality.

RedDave2

https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1213110049872023552?s=19

No idea why this showed up on my twitter but this guys seems to have the US play book sussed. And it looks like Dominic Raab is getting the UK all lubed up to get into bed with US military again

acemuzzy

I'm still prepared for disappointment, but https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/16/white-house-violated-the-law-by-freezing-ukraine-aid-gao-says-099682 is interesting

hunk

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/16/20991816/impeachment-trial-trump-bannon-misinformation

"Flood the zone with shit". Tried and tested misinformation strategy.
Putin explored it first succesfully, The neo right (Bannon/Trump) copied the strategy in 2016 and applied it with success globally using the tabloids and online outlets/targeted ads (twitter/fb). Now in 2020 they're about to do it again as the left (democracy in general) are still clueless as to what's going on.
Impeachment? What impeachment?

It wouldn't surprise me if Trump wins 2020.
History repeating.

Gremill

It depends who gets the Dem nomination. If it's anyone but Bernie then chances are it'll be another 4 years of Trump.

b0r1s

I agree with Hunk. Things have moved on. We are in a changing landscape where liberals will not abuse what targeting digital advertising can do. While the right don’t give a fuck. As long as they win.

RedDave2

I admire the attitude of taking the higher ground but it increasingly feels like bringing a knife to a gunfight.

hunk

Remember, Trump only needs to hold on to a few key states in the mid west to win 2020 via EC. If the dems would only realise this and unite their campaigns to sabotage this strategy.

A knife in a gunfight might work if you can come close and cut deep where it hurts.

RedDave2

Fine, we're bringing a sausage to a gunfight.

MattyJ

Trumps base don't care. It's a cult. He can do no wrong. He could literally fuck their mum while stabbing their dad in the face and they'd still support him.

yourfavouriteuncle

Gremill wrote:

It depends who gets the Dem nomination. If it's anyone but Bernie then chances are it'll be another 4 years of Trump.

Nah man. IMO you’ve got that totally the wrong way round. Bernie may be our kinda guy but Trump and the Reps in general will absolutely wipe the floor with him. Trump has his base already that Bernie won’t be able to touch and then the only other thing he has to do is make just a few extra white middle Americans fear the commie socialism Bernie threatens and he’s through. Honestly think he’s too ingrained now. Sorry...

Diluted Dante

Sanders consistently outpolls Trump, and he's very much become a known quantity over the last 4 years. It's been his entire aim this cycle, building a movement.

its certainly possible Trump wins, but wipes the floor with him? No chance.

RedDave2

MattyJ wrote:

Trumps base don't care. It's a cult. He can do no wrong. He could literally fuck their mum while stabbing their dad in the face and they'd still support him.

It's not the Trump base you want to win over. It's the voter who voted Obama but then voted trump. That's the target. A die hard republican or trump fan is no more likely to change than a die hard sanders fan or democrat. But there is a big middle ground up for grabs

Gremill

Diluted Dante wrote:

Sanders consistently outpolls Trump, and he's very much become a known quantity over the last 4 years. It's been his entire aim this cycle, building a movement.

its certainly possible Trump wins, but wipes the floor with him? No chance.

b0r1s

RedDave2 wrote:

I admire the attitude of taking the higher ground but it increasingly feels like bringing a knife to a gunfight.

You misunderstood me. I want the left to fight dirty. Fuck it. Do what you have to to win then when in power deliver your manifesto. We saw this with the UK election where 0% of the ads from the left had lies but 80% of the right did. And we know who won that. Until the left get tough they will always get fucked over. People (as a whole) don’t want complexity and subtle answers anymore. For some reason they want sound bites and promises that it will all be fine. The right will lie time and again to say they will deliver that then obviously change their minds when they get into power. It really, seriously makes me think about the actual value of democracy. How can democracy work when it can be so easily abused?

P.S. I have played a lot of Disco Elysium recently that made me consider socio-political viewpoints.

yourfavouriteuncle

Gremill wrote:

Diluted Dante wrote:

Sanders consistently outpolls Trump, and he's very much become a known quantity over the last 4 years. It's been his entire aim this cycle, building a movement. its certainly possible Trump wins, but wipes the floor with him? No chance.

Ok then.

Diluted Dante

I'm not so sure why you think Sanders can't touch Trumps base. He went after blue collar workers in the rust belt states, a group Sanders certainly appeals to. You really think he can't flip those states back?

Funkstain

RedDave2 wrote:

MattyJ wrote:

Trumps base don't care. It's a cult. He can do no wrong. He could literally fuck their mum while stabbing their dad in the face and they'd still support him.

It's not the Trump base you want to win over. It's the voter who voted Obama but then voted trump. That's the target. A die hard republican or trump fan is no more likely to change than a die hard sanders fan or democrat. But there is a big middle ground up for grabs

There is? Can anyone point to the significant numbers of swing voters who went from
Obama to Trump (?!), especially in places where trump won key states by marginal numbers?

I’m becoming more and more convinced that swing voters are largely a myth. Analysis after analysis shows that people simply don’t swing that much - that it’s the quantity of voters which affects the results, not their changeability.

yourfavouriteuncle

Diluted Dante wrote:

I'm not so sure why you think Sanders can't touch Trumps base. He went after blue collar workers in the rust belt states, a group Sanders certainly appeals to. You really think he can't flip those states back?

Perhaps some but I think this will be offset by the republicans ability to scare every middle class white voter with shit storm commie stories about how evil socialist sanders wants to take all the money they’ve saved to get the kids off to Ivy League and give it all away to scary brown people. Many of those appalled by Trump (even those never Trumpers we hear about) will be more appalled at the thought and threat of giving up even MORE of THEIR income.

Most on this forum are smart and nuanced folk who can read between the press releases (esp you Dants) and make smart and empathetic political and social choices. The majority of the voting population aren’t I’m afraid and I just think it’s going to be too easy for him to be smeared by the Russians/Republicans.

The stories I was being told about Corbyn in our recent election by generally reasonable people was shocking. The stories we laughed off as being clearly fake, bullshit, or biased? That’s the bit that doesn’t get through to most and it’ll be that kinda stuff that I don’t think Bernie will be able to power past.

Diluted Dante

Sanders hasnt had a relentless press campaign against him for the last 4 years though. He recieves less coverage and its slanted negative for sure, but due to Corbyn being Labour Leader and Sanders being just a Senator, its not like for like.

One thing Sanders has as well is that he equivocates far less than other candidates. Whilst Warren is reluctant to say taxes will rise to pay for her healthcare plan, Sanders admits it. That allows him to get across that your out of pocket costs are lower, and so overall the average American is better off. Warrens point is the same, but because she won't say taxes will rise the story becomes that she won't say it.

Also its thought about 10% of Sanders supporters voted for Trump. There is very little reason for them to vote Trump when their man is in the race.

JonB

b0r1s wrote:

RedDave2 wrote:

I admire the attitude of taking the higher ground but it increasingly feels like bringing a knife to a gunfight.

You misunderstood me. I want the left to fight dirty. Fuck it. Do what you have to to win then when in power deliver your manifesto. We saw this with the UK election where 0% of the ads from the left had lies but 80% of the right did. And we know who won that. Until the left get tough they will always get fucked over.

The Left can't get away with it though. Look at the shit Corbyn was getting regardless, even when he was saying stuff that was true. It's a different standard.

People (as a whole) don’t want complexity and subtle answers anymore. For some reason they want sound bites and promises that it will all be fine.

This is something that the Left can do better, but it's also something the Right always have an advantage on simply because their answers are simpler and top-down. The Left needs to sell some kind of collective project - that everyone needs to act locally to avoid various crises.

RedDave2

Funkstain wrote:

RedDave2 wrote:

MattyJ wrote:

Trumps base don't care. It's a cult. He can do no wrong. He could literally fuck their mum while stabbing their dad in the face and they'd still support him.

It's not the Trump base you want to win over. It's the voter who voted Obama but then voted trump. That's the target. A die hard republican or trump fan is no more likely to change than a die hard sanders fan or democrat. But there is a big middle ground up for grabs

There is? Can anyone point to the significant numbers of swing voters who went from
Obama to Trump (?!), especially in places where trump won key states by marginal numbers?

I’m becoming more and more convinced that swing voters are largely a myth. Analysis after analysis shows that people simply don’t swing that much - that it’s the quantity of voters which affects the results, not their changeability.

Wisconsin is the big example. It was a huge switch in 20 counties that won trump the state and played a big role in his overall win.

Im not sure I see it as swing voters, more there are people for whom politics is a noise in the background. They aren't dems, they aren't republicans. I think for these voters it is more about the individual than the party.
Edit: curiously this is up on the guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/19/id-like-to-vote-democratic-the-swing-voters-who-want-a-reason-not-to-back-trump-again

b0r1s

JonB wrote:

I admire the attitude of taking the higher ground but it increasingly feels like bringing a knife to a gunfight.

You misunderstood me. I want the left to fight dirty. Fuck it. Do what you have to to win then when in power deliver your manifesto. We saw this with the UK election where 0% of the ads from the left had lies but 80% of the right did. And we know who won that. Until the left get tough they will always get fucked over.

The Left can't get away with it though. Look at the shit Corbyn was getting regardless, even when he was saying stuff that was true. It's a different standard.

People (as a whole) don’t want complexity and subtle answers anymore. For some reason they want sound bites and promises that it will all be fine.

This is something that the Left can do better, but it's also something the Right always have an advantage on simply because their answers are simpler and top-down. The Left needs to sell some kind of collective project - that everyone needs to act locally to avoid various crises.

Unless the left sell out a particular group I’m not sure how this works. I get that Corbyn oversold. But I really don’t think that’s what’s happening. It’s an unconscious collective need to latch onto something to blame for their shit situation. The genius of the right is they managed to divert the real reasons for their predicament.

Minnesänger

So Hillary has come out and labelled Sanders a “career politician that no one likes”.

She said this.

H Clinton.

...the fucking fuck?

Diluted Dante

Yeah, shes a great example of someone who is both incredibly smart and incredibly thick at the same time.

GooberTheHat

There is a recording of s phone call between Trump, and someone he has previously claimed not to know, where he instructs them to "take her out", referring to the US ambassador to Ukraine.

That should be it, the senate should vote unanimously to evict him from office. I have no faith in the Republicans to do the right thing though.

RedDave2

I think they have taken the line of the president only meant that she should be removed from her position because it was reported she wasn't doing a good job.

Absolute horse shit, but people seem to be buying it. Amazingly, the guardian reported that trumps approval rating had actually gone up slightly since the trial.

GooberTheHat

The fact she got a phone call telling her, for her security and safety, she needed to be on the next plane back to th US, makes me think someone had intelligence that there was something nefarious planed for her.

RedDave2

https://youtu.be/HZIbipRpjJ4

Bill maher can be fairly accused of going OTT on things, but he makes a good point about trump and certain members of his followers. If he does lose the 2020 election (and I don't think he will) will he go quietly?

acemuzzy

God I had the defence "you can't impeach him because he got voted / is popular / could win the next election". Even if true, it's like zero relevance. Next they'll be saying Weinstein can't be a rapist cos his company made some good movies. They're just totally orthogonal planes of argument.

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