Brexit: Boris' Big Belgian Bangers
  • One thing I was thinking about: There isn’t time for a second referendum now. How long does a referendum take, start to finish? There seems to be an accepted period of time for campaigning and I seem to remember it’s longer than six months.
  • Yeah it would need an article 50 extension. It's made even more complex by EU MEP elections taking place at the end of May 2019. If we were still in at that point we might have to hold them because the law couldn't be sorted out in time to exclude us. There's no straightforward route out of any of it.
  • The only way a second referendum can realistically happen is if there’s a general election, Labour take power, and they then request an extension and commission a referendum.

    Not looking likely.
  • Yossarian
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    I’m not so sure about that. If the Tories remain divided on this and there’s no route through parliament (which does not look unlikely at the moment) then a second vote may be the only way to unblock the process.
  • monkey wrote:
    If anyone had said anything like that, you might have a point.

    It’s pretty much exactly what you both said, in a nutshell.
  • poprock wrote:
    One thing I was thinking about: There isn’t time for a second referendum now. How long does a referendum take, start to finish? There seems to be an accepted period of time for campaigning and I seem to remember it’s longer than six months.

    It exceedingly unlikely that the EU wouldnt extend the deadline, if for no other reason than We'd have an answer as to what is happening.
  • Asking for an extension would enrage the Brexiteers, make the government look weak and confirm that they weren't prepared. It probably should happen, but I doubt it will.
  • Andy's post was a good post.
  • Andy wrote:
    monkey wrote:
    If anyone had said anything like that, you might have a point.
    It’s pretty much exactly what you both said, in a nutshell.
    You asked how it could go wrong. I said ways it could. I also later said this.
    monkey wrote:
    I want whatever cancels Brexit so I think it’s worth a try.
    You said my position was lazy / cowardly and was equivalent to this.
    Andy wrote:
    “We’d best not try to stop it, because that seems awkward.”

    In a nutshell, what your position boils down to is that all Leave voters should be hanged, which is pretty disgusting in my book.
  • Yossarian
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    Ironically, most Leave voters are probably all for bringing back hanging.
  • Maybe if someone had thought about the ways in which the first referendum might have gone wrong we wouldn't be in this mess?
  • Yossarian wrote:
    Ironically, most Leave voters are probably all for bringing back hanging.
    I wouldn't joke about it if I were you. Guardian HQ is going to be one of the first stops on the lynch mob's itinerary.
  • monkey wrote:
    You asked how it could go wrong.

    I asked how it could go more wrong; how a second referendum would be worse than no referendum. As such, your response read (to me) like we shouldn’t try.
  • Yossarian
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    monkey wrote:
    Yossarian wrote:
    Ironically, most Leave voters are probably all for bringing back hanging.
    I wouldn't joke about it if I were you. Guardian HQ is going to be one of the first stops on the mob's itinerary.

    They’ll never penetrate our bubble.
  • Someone please give me one remotely feasible timeline of events where this Brexit nightmare can be avoided. Your hypothetical scenario should include Labour winning back white van man cunts who voted for this, against a backdrop of extreme media hostility to them ‘defying the will of the people’. Consideration should be given to the fact this basically looks impossible.
  • Without bloody revolution, or a military coup, as far as I can see we’re fucked. And with either of those things we’re also fucked, just not by Brexit.
  • Yossarian
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    The Brexit nightmare itself can feasibly be avoided without Labour ever being in power, fortunately.

    Intra-party talks between Tories collapse, no other way forward other than a second vote, remain goes on the ballot paper, article 50 extension, job done.

    Labour winning anyone over is irrelevant to avoiding Brexit.
  • Yossarian
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    I’m not saying that the above is likely, but it’s certainly feasible.
  • Starmer's fairly made some waves today.  Good for him.
  • For me the best case scenario is Labour managing to convince the public the Tories fucked this up post-Brexit. Even this may be too optimistic.
  • Yossarian
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    For me, Labour are almost as culpable for the current situation as the Tories are owing to their failure to act as an opposition on this issue.
  • Yossarian wrote:
    Labour winning anyone over is irrelevant to avoiding Brexit.
    Yossarian wrote:
    For me, Labour are almost as culpable for the current situation as the Tories are owing to their failure to act as an opposition on this issue.

    Which of these two consecutive and contradictory statements are you going with?

  • 1. Challenge to Corbyn from Remainer.

    2. Remainer must also be a centrist because they need to appeal to Tories as well. But not a shit one like Umunna. Can't advocate austerity. Has to be able to slag off past Labour failures (Iraq, PFI) but convincingly defend them from attacks on 2008 crisis and bankrupting the country through over-spending. Has a plan to turn the country around advocating investment in economically ignored parts of the country, nationalisation of public utilities but be pro-market elsewhere, have a realistic plan for taxing megacorps at UK corp tax rates. Above all that person needs to restore trust in politics in general. Says what they mean. Does what they say. Tells people they're wrong if they disagree with them. That person can get enough support from right and left to kill Brexit in a second campaign. Working class Brexit voters will support this person. 

    3. Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and Tory rebels vote down May's deal. 

    4. That same group puts forward a backbench motion for a second referendum and gets it through and can trigger an article 50 extension to support that.

    5. Tories now in (more) chaos. May resigns. They quickly appoint someone, anyone, probably Boris Johnson. Brexit referendum led by divisive shit-stirrers like Johnson, Mogg and Farage. Gove will keep a low fucking profile this time. Their lies will no longer work in the face of the clear reality around them. Instead of the vague hypotheticals they got to trade in last time, they'll be asked specific questions about specific problems and they'll be seen through.

    6. Remain wins. Tories still in power. Prime Minister Boris Johnson breathes a huge sigh of relief that other people have got his country off the hook for him. Never mentions Europe again. Fornicates in his office for three more years before the Labour Super-Centrist wins the next election.
      

    Finding this mythic super-politician is the hard bit there. They might not exist. Some leadership is needed though. Not Corbyn's luke-warm bullshit.
  • Unlikely wrote:
    Starmer's fairly made some waves today.  Good for him.
    Apparently, the line about Remain being on the table in a 2nd ref, that got him a minute long standing ovation, was stuck in after the speech had been approved by the leadership. They didn't know he was going to say it.
  • You’re asking for a British Obama.
  • Yossarian
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    Yossarian wrote:
    Labour winning anyone over is irrelevant to avoiding Brexit.
    Yossarian wrote:
    For me, Labour are almost as culpable for the current situation as the Tories are owing to their failure to act as an opposition on this issue.

    Which of these two consecutive and contradictory statements are you going with?

    They aren’t contradictory. The opposition should have been through parliament, not through an election. Although, had they opposed more strongly in parliament, that could have granted them an attempt at an election.
  • The problem with Brexit is it's also the will of the 2 main parties.
    Both the Tories and Labour are kind of steering for Brexit albeit for different reasons. Like monkey already stated there's noone fighting for Remain. Remain has no united front and thus is therefore an unlikely outcome.

    Sure the people can demand a 2nd vote and perhaps they will get one. Thers's absolutely no guarantee a vote for remain will be allowed on the list. Unless people start rioting in the street for it.
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  • How about someone further to the left of Corbo who is also a Remainer. Fuck another centrist.

    I'd vote for that.
  • But yes, riots would be nice at this point honestly. Better now while there's still summat like the resources to pick up the pieces.

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