The British Politics Thread
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davyK wrote:All of a sudden Boris looks reasonable.
Dominic Raab would suspend parliament until after 31st Oct. What a fecking arsehole.
The man is utterly insane
Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
The Tories have proven remarkably resilient over the centuries, but it’s hard to see a flaw in the reasoning here:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-conservative-party-tory-split-outcome-jonathan-lis -
And now Bercow’s nixed the idea of suspending parliament to get no deal through:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/06/next-tory-pm-will-not-be-able-to-suspend-parliament-bercow -
Yossarian wrote:The Tories have proven remarkably resilient over the centuries, but it’s hard to see a flaw in the reasoning here:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-conservative-party-tory-split-outcome-jonathan-lis
Every cloud eh?
And still, would not surprise me if, no matter what happens in October, a Conservative party is still running Britain this time next year.
SFV - reddave360 -
Brigend car plant in Wales to close next year, with a loss of 1700 jobs. No doubt Brexit, which the majority of Welsh voted for, is a factor in this. -
Or Johnson takes over, is wildly popular with the country's brexit-backers, gets some fudge from Brussels that he can then use to push through the WA. The ERG and the tabloids, realising they're now on the edge of the abyss, back him and they live for another day. Or, Parliament 'forces' him to extend, or do a 2nd ref so he can carry on spouting his bullshit about No deal, retains support of the Tory base and lives for another day. Or Parliament revokes article 50, or Remain wins a 2nd referendum and he's off the hook completely. Sits around for three years looking to call a snap election during any moment of popularity.Yossarian wrote:The Tories have proven remarkably resilient over the centuries, but it’s hard to see a flaw in the reasoning here: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-conservative-party-tory-split-outcome-jonathan-lis
I can't personally see much of the above flying but I also suspect they'll weasel out of it somehow. They've weaseled out of stuff for two hundred years.
I can't fix that quote thing at the top. -
One of the situations in which the tories are destroyed probably means some ultra nutcase party becomes an actual force in Britain though. Like wiping out both or all four main parties.
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I said this might happen and people said it'll be fine."Plus he wore shorts like a total cunt" - Bob
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Labour and Tory are both shit tbf. They've both had a crack and they've always been shite so it's no wonder people are angry. Moar capitalism is the only thing that's happened in the last 40 years. No wonder people don't give a shit anymore because moar had been the one constant thing. The only ones to properly try and fuck it up were the bankers and even they couldn't stop the madness."Plus he wore shorts like a total cunt" - Bob
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Labour beat the brexit party in the Peterborough by-election by just over 600 votes.
It's traditionally a marginal seat, so the fact it was only narrowly won, especially considering the reasons for the by-election in the first place, might no be too concerning to Labour.
The brexit party beating the Conservatives to second though must scare the shit out of the Conservative leadership contenders, considering there is a good chance they will face a vote of no confidence and possible GE early on. They are going to go full brexit to try and claw back some voters aren't they. -
Interestingly, Peterborough voted in favour of leave with 61%, and the Brexit party have been able to target this by-election exclusively, and still couldn't take advantage of the situation (turn out was way down on 2017, which will account for some of the decrease in labour vote share). It does look like they are going to cannibalise the rights vote though. -
Thank fuck Labour won that.
Let's hope this MP isnt a fucking moron like the last one.
It think last time Labour only won by 300 votes, but against the Tory candidate. -
Looks like some lib dem voters (and some greens) defected to labour ftw. Now a three way marginal. If pro brexit conservatives go back to Tories, and labour listens to the posters in here and plumps for remain, how on earth does it retain this seat? The brexit party will still have the vote of labour leavers.
Look at those percentages. Where is the remain vote labour should aim to capture? How is backing remain outright in any sense going to do anything but lead to defeat?
Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
Looking at those percentages alone without any deeper analysis, could it not be that the majority of the Labour vote loss went to Lib Dem and Green while the Brexit Party mostly sucked up disaffected Tories?
And if the Brexit party will ‘still’ have the vote of Labour leavers, that suggests that the current position isn’t saving those voters anyway. -
Some labour votes almost certainly went to lib dems, and some will have gone to the brexit party, but it looks like its the Conservatives who are really going to get hit hard by the Brexit party. It's obviously speculation at this point, but i think the split loyalties of tory/brexit party is going to leave both short of mps. Leaving labour out front in the majority of marginal seats id imagin
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I mean, the other side of this is the risk that Labour have of losing remain seats. I don’t think I’d be able to help but laugh if this tactic saw Labour as the largest party after a GE with Islington repeating what happened in the Euro election and Corbyn losing his seat.
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The euros aren't representative of a GE vote at all though. I would never have vored the way i did in the euros in a GE.
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I know, but I’m still willing to bet that the Lib Dems pick up at least a few seats from Labour in heavily remain areas.
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Yossarian wrote:Looking at those percentages alone without any deeper analysis, could it not be that the majority of the Labour vote loss went to Lib Dem and Green while the Brexit Party mostly sucked up disaffected Tories?
And if the Brexit party will ‘still’ have the vote of Labour leavers, that suggests that the current position isn’t saving those voters anyway.
To whom? I mean, it in a labour / Con marginal remainers vote lib dem and secure a Tory or Brexit party win, they're even more retarded than I thought
Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
Have you looked up how many lab / lib dem marginals there are in the country?Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms
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Armitage_Shankburn wrote:Yossarian wrote:Looking at those percentages alone without any deeper analysis, could it not be that the majority of the Labour vote loss went to Lib Dem and Green while the Brexit Party mostly sucked up disaffected Tories?
And if the Brexit party will ‘still’ have the vote of Labour leavers, that suggests that the current position isn’t saving those voters anyway.
To whom? I mean, it in a labour / Con marginal remainers vote lib dem and secure a Tory or Brexit party win, they're even more retarded than I thought
They may not actually switch, but they may be less likely to turn out for a party that they feel is letting them down on the biggest issue of the day.
I get the calculus that’s going on behind the scenes, I do, but Labour is currently letting down 75% of its voters in an attempt to appease the other 25%, few of whom see Brexit as that important in the first place*. They’re losing votes to explicitly pro-remain parties at a far higher rate than pro-Brexit ones and it’s not like any of this is about to hand them a majority despite the fact that they are facing off against the most woeful government in living memory.
The absolute best that Labour can currently hope for is scraping in as the head of a minority government. They should be doing better than this. The best option they have for that is coming out for remain.
* I know a citation is needed there, I’ll try and dig the polling out tomorrow. Feel free to remind me. -
Gove has admitted to partaking in some of the old nose bag in the past.
That is him out of the running then surely.
I mean personally I would rather they just admit it, half of them are clearly coked up anyway.
That's not how being a conservative works though, you bury your secrets and take it out on the poor. -
Found a source on the claim above, although it’s referenced in a Channel 4 fact check rather than being the primary source.
FactCheck has seen a report by the Labour-affiliated TSSA union from February 2019 which found that 60 per cent of Labour voters said they’d be more likely to vote Labour if the party was committed to opposing Brexit. Some 28 per cent said it would make no difference, and just 12 per cent said they’d be less likely.
The data is now a few months old, but we note that nearly all of the TSSA predictions on how a pro-Brexit third party might fare were borne out in Thursday’s European elections.
Wouldn’t Labour leavers ditch the party?
The TSSA report, which also used polling by YouGov, offers evidence that Labour Leave voters care less about Brexit than other Leavers.
It found that just 36 per cent of Labour Leave voters list Brexit as one of the top three issues facing themselves and their families (compared to 60 per cent of Conservative Brexiteers).
Only 66 per cent of Labour voters who backed Leave in 2016 say they would do so again in a second referendum, the report finds. Some 16 per cent say they’d now vote Remain, while 13 per cent say they don’t know.
All of this suggests that Labour Leavers are less committed to leaving the EU than Brexiteers in other parties — and therefore less likely to desert Labour if it adopts a pro-Remain stance.
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-would-labour-win-an-election-if-it-backed-remain
This wasn’t the polling I had originally read about, I can’t remember where that was from, but the results are pretty much the same as far as I recall. -
Ai didnt Ask for polling. I asked for reasoning. I didn't get any. I wasn't told how many lib - lab marginals are out there. I know why.Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms
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Because I don’t know the answer. Not sure how much it matters either, it’s not like results of Lab/Con marginals couldn’t be affected by remainers switching to the Lib Dems.
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Gove and Coke should help his ratings in a sensible world.Holding the wrong end of the stick since 2009. -
Yossarian wrote:Because I don’t know the answer. Not sure how much it matters either, it’s not like results of Lab/Con marginals couldn’t be affected by remainers switching to the Lib Dems.
And these switchers would be utterly stupid.
Just so it's clear, I'm suggesting in a general most labour remainers will vote labour in a marginal Vs Tory or Tory and Brexit party. Anything else is sheer asininity, though I do acknowledge that some remainers seem to have got obsessed and potty so who knows.
In the 13 or so lib/lab marginals, eat your liberal heart out, vote lib dem.
Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms -
If it comes to a General Election and you’re voting Lib Dem just to make some pathetic point about Brexit then you deserve the (continued) Tory government you’ll end up with.
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Don't wank. Zinc in your sperms
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I have been thinking about this a bit more since last night, though:Yossarian wrote:The absolute best that Labour can currently hope for is scraping in as the head of a minority government.
I don’t see Labour gaining a majority with their current positioning, but they could potentially end up trying to form a coalition government. Clearly, the Lib Dems would demand at least a PV as part of this. If there is a GE, Labour’s uselessness on Brexit might just end up being the thing that delivers us from Labour’s uselessness on Brexit.
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