The British Politics Thread - The Bear and Badger

Yossarian

Armitage_Shankburn wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

I fear Dunt may have a point here:

Corbyn's fumbling it. Same strategic error as May: going far enough to alienate some people without going far enough to attract others.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1134092463038185472

So will the next PM.

Ever asked yourself why, or is what's on your mind "remain or fuck off?"

The why as far as I can tell is an attempt to hold together the Labour voting coalition. I don’t think that’s possible TBH.

RedDave2

I know you hate me bringing this up yoss and I do understand your side of things but I reckon the compromise of finding the best form of brexit is the only way to attract both sides. There will always be remainders who want to stay no matter what and there will always be the leavers who want no deal. But surely most just want to make sure Britain isn't ruined by all this (even the EU doesn't want to see the UK wrecked - it's still a valuable market)

Pushing for remain is only feeding the trolls who want no deal. Leave but fight for the best, least damaging version feels to me like the path to least harm. I think remain could be detrimental to your political scene and would only fuel the likes of farrage.

Diluted Dante

davyK wrote:

@Diluted_Dante.

I have been thinking about a few posts I made about Jeremy Corbyn a few days back and my spikey responses to some things you posted.

It really made me think about why I was getting annoyed. The fact is I have in my mind, come to regard some ex-members of terrorist organisations in NI to be fit to rule.

Martin McGuinness was probably the best of the bunch. A man who openly admitted to IRA membership and yet who ended up as Dep. First Minister of NI work with Rev. Ian Paisley.

In fact after Paisley retired I would have been quite happy for him to be sole leader. He was statesmanlike and from what I hear a very effective behind doors negotiator.

I am from the other side of the NI community so I would consider myself to be an a minority holding that opinion; though I believe that there may have been more with similar secretive thoughts than I dare to wish. This would in no way imply agreeing with what happened, more to do with being a believer in redemption.

So f I can have that going on, why would I respond in such a way to Jeremy Corbyn? So I have climbed down off my high horse on that after some rational thought.

So sorry if I was snappy again.

I still don't think Corbyn is fit to lead as he is too idealistic and not really suited to this messy compromised world.

A wholly unnecessary post to make Davy, but marks you out as a top tier gent.

The situation in Ireland and NI is obviously pretty messy and still ongoing. It's very much within the memory for a lot of people, and you're very much closer to it than I am. I was probably more defensive than necessary.

Diluted Dante

RedDave2 wrote:

I know you hate me bringing this up yoss and I do understand your side of things but I reckon the compromise of finding the best form of brexit is the only way to attract both sides. There will always be remainders who want to stay no matter what and there will always be the leavers who want no deal. But surely most just want to make sure Britain isn't ruined by all this (even the EU doesn't want to see the UK wrecked - it's still a valuable market)

Pushing for remain is only feeding the trolls who want no deal. Leave but fight for the best, least damaging version feels to me like the path to least harm. I think remain could be detrimental to your political scene and would only fuel the likes of farrage.

How do you argue that though?

"This is objectively worse than what we currently have, so I propose we do it"

monkey

RedDave2 wrote:

I know you hate me bringing this up yoss and I do understand your side of things but I reckon the compromise of finding the best form of brexit is the only way to attract both sides. There will always be remainders who want to stay no matter what and there will always be the leavers who want no deal. But surely most just want to make sure Britain isn't ruined by all this (even the EU doesn't want to see the UK wrecked - it's still a valuable market) Pushing for remain is only feeding the trolls who want no deal. Leave but fight for the best, least damaging version feels to me like the path to least harm. I think remain could be detrimental to your political scene and would only fuel the likes of farrage.

It is tricky this, because the Brexit ultras (and tbf the Remain ultras) aren't interested in this at all. If Labour, lib dems etc had done this, that would have meant voting for May's WA, then again not being listened to for two years while the Tories fought amongst themselves over the trade deal stuff - arguably the most important bit.

This wouldn't happen for tribalism and shitheadedness on the right and left but if there was a mechanism for everyone coming together and accepting we'll Leave, and then working out the bits we want to keep and the bits we can do without, maybe the reasonable centre-ground parts of the population can support it. To be fair, Corbyn (presumably, if everyone is decrypting his sphinx-like riddles correctly) and May are both close to this. But they both want to run it all themselves, when neither can be trusted to run a bath.

But then there's a contradiction there anyway, the softer Brexit you have, the less and less point there is in doing any of it. And the softer it is, the less the people that want Brexit want what you're doing. The harder the Brexit, the more damaging it is and the less anyone sensible can support it.

monkey

I mean, how would a Remainer at this point in time, fight for the least damaging deal? They've been ignored for three years. The ultras in the Tory party have pulled the thing towards themselves. The same will happen after a WA goes through. Both sides have got into a tug of war with it, and there really isn't any chance of getting both sides to stop simultaneously. There's too little trust there.

Yossarian

Yeah, the people who have done most to wreck any chance of compromise are the hardcore Brexiters, that’s why we’re in this mess, not because of remainers. Remainers have had pretty much no voice during this process, Lib Dem were wiped out, SNP, Greens and Plaid ignored. Labour has been against this specific compromise, not compromise in general.

Don’t blame remainers for leading us to the edge of this abyss, we’re the ones trying to drag us back from it.

davyK

@Gremill and @Diluted_Dante.

Cheers lads. Much appreciated. Quality little community this. It gives space for people to move about a bit which is a rare thing.

davyK

And now it seems Jez has a plan.

He has means to prevent a hard exit by leading a no confidence motion nwhich would be supported by enough Tories to prevent a hard exit (I would damn well like to think so at any rate)

And his idea of a ref once a deal is agreed is eminently sensible. Lets hope he follows that through.

Of course he will angle for a GE instead as he fancies it. But he would need a damn clear exit plan before doing that.

monkey

According to a new Yougov poll, the Lib Dem’s are currently the most popular party in the country on 24%!!
Then Brexits on 22, Tories and Labour tied in 19.

mistercrayon

Fuck yougov. The most chanciest bullshite merchants in the land.

Diluted Dante

mistercrayon wrote:

Fuck yougov. The most chanciest bullshite merchants in the land.

In what way?

RedDave2

Just replying to some posts here. I guess I'm seeing this from outside the UK so that skews the view a bit.

I just feel that the situation is pretty dire and people are still trying to figure out the question, let alone the answer. The UK appears to have some deep divisions because of this and yes, it was a stupid idea for a referendum but time isn't going back. Hope that however it turns out some genuine healing can begin.

Yossarian

mistercrayon wrote:

Fuck yougov. The most chanciest bullshite merchants in the land.

I’m reminded of this tweet from before the EU election from a Twitter account called @Leftiestats:

Labour's share of the EU election vote in the most recent poll from each pollster:

33% (Panelbase)
25% (Hanbury)
24% (ComRes)
24% (Survation)
22% (BMG)
20% (Opinium)
13% (YouGov)

Either YouGov will be absolutely vindicated, or they will be totally, totally wrong.

Source: https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1130983179467317248?s=21

mistercrayon

Ah well done for them. Maybe my opinion will change of them in time. For now they remain the folks who predicted a Scotland would vote yes in 2014.

The impression I get is if you want a wacky result for something they’ll be not far away. Could simply be repeated confirmation bias.

Diluted Dante

In a move that will explode the Conservative Party leadership race wide open, Mark Harper, or "stock image of a middle aged man sat at a table" has thrown his hat in the ring.

3895.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8a7aa01bee04fb82cc5eebb291a29667

3895.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8a7aa01bee04fb82cc5eebb291a29667

Yossarian

I caught a bit of that Rory Stewart on QT last night managing to discuss Brexit without promising unicorns. What a low bar we’ve reached that I was actually quite impressed by this.

monkey

Diluted Dante wrote:

In a move that will explode the Conservative Party leadership race wide open, Mark Harper, or "stock image of a middle aged man sat at a table" has thrown his hat in the ring.

Oh my god that’s bland. Extraordinarily bland if that’s not a contradiction.

monkey

Yossarian wrote:

I caught a bit of that Rory Stewart on QT last night managing to discuss Brexit without promising unicorns. What a low bar we’ve reached that I was actually quite impressed by this.

I didn’t watch but his plan seems to be a citizens assembly to discuss it, and then he thinks they’ll all go for May’s WA, once it’s been properly explained and that will make parliament do it and job done. That about right?

Yossarian

I didn’t catch enough of it to know for sure, but that certainly sounds plausible from what I did see.

monkey

It’s not an awful plan, given that May’s WA is the only real option. He needs basically everyone in the Tories to agree though. Which seems like a big ask.

Yossarian

It’s definitely a better plan then ‘we will force the EU to capitulate or no deal’.

Diluted Dante

monkey wrote:

Yossarian wrote:

I caught a bit of that Rory Stewart on QT last night managing to discuss Brexit without promising unicorns. What a low bar we’ve reached that I was actually quite impressed by this.

I didn’t watch but his plan seems to be a citizens assembly to discuss it, and then he thinks they’ll all go for May’s WA, once it’s been properly explained and that will make parliament do it and job done. That about right?

I assume this plan will begin in in around September 2016?

Yossarian

Hyde’s on fire:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/31/opium-drone-no-deal-tory-battle-conservative-leadership-race

Diluted Dante

I do like The Malthouse Ultimatum.

Yossarian

I couldn’t even make it through the first paragraph description of BoJo without having to stop and laugh.

Armitage_Shankburn

monkey wrote:

According to a new Yougov poll, the Lib Dem’s are currently the most popular party in the country on 24%!!
Then Brexits on 22, Tories and Labour tied in 19.

Paul Mason referenced that ahead of its publication yesterday. I got a signed copy of his book, natch

Armitage_Shankburn

I would be quite happy with Rory Stewart, obviously, since he is the one who sold me on the W/A

Gremill

Yossarian wrote:

I couldn’t even make it through the first paragraph description of BoJo without having to stop and laugh.

Marina Hyde is a superb writer.

Armitage_Shankburn

She's a hack

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