davyK wrote:All of a sudden Boris looks reasonable.
Dominic Raab would suspend parliament until after 31st Oct. What a fecking arsehole.
Yossarian wrote:The Tories have proven remarkably resilient over the centuries, but it’s hard to see a flaw in the reasoning here:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-conservative-party-tory-split-outcome-jonathan-lis
Or Johnson takes over, is wildly popular with the country's brexit-backers, gets some fudge from Brussels that he can then use to push through the WA. The ERG and the tabloids, realising they're now on the edge of the abyss, back him and they live for another day. Or, Parliament 'forces' him to extend, or do a 2nd ref so he can carry on spouting his bullshit about No deal, retains support of the Tory base and lives for another day. Or Parliament revokes article 50, or Remain wins a 2nd referendum and he's off the hook completely. Sits around for three years looking to call a snap election during any moment of popularity.Yossarian wrote:The Tories have proven remarkably resilient over the centuries, but it’s hard to see a flaw in the reasoning here: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-conservative-party-tory-split-outcome-jonathan-lis
Yossarian wrote:Looking at those percentages alone without any deeper analysis, could it not be that the majority of the Labour vote loss went to Lib Dem and Green while the Brexit Party mostly sucked up disaffected Tories?
And if the Brexit party will ‘still’ have the vote of Labour leavers, that suggests that the current position isn’t saving those voters anyway.
Armitage_Shankburn wrote:Yossarian wrote:Looking at those percentages alone without any deeper analysis, could it not be that the majority of the Labour vote loss went to Lib Dem and Green while the Brexit Party mostly sucked up disaffected Tories?
And if the Brexit party will ‘still’ have the vote of Labour leavers, that suggests that the current position isn’t saving those voters anyway.
To whom? I mean, it in a labour / Con marginal remainers vote lib dem and secure a Tory or Brexit party win, they're even more retarded than I thought
FactCheck has seen a report by the Labour-affiliated TSSA union from February 2019 which found that 60 per cent of Labour voters said they’d be more likely to vote Labour if the party was committed to opposing Brexit. Some 28 per cent said it would make no difference, and just 12 per cent said they’d be less likely.
The data is now a few months old, but we note that nearly all of the TSSA predictions on how a pro-Brexit third party might fare were borne out in Thursday’s European elections.
Wouldn’t Labour leavers ditch the party?
The TSSA report, which also used polling by YouGov, offers evidence that Labour Leave voters care less about Brexit than other Leavers.
It found that just 36 per cent of Labour Leave voters list Brexit as one of the top three issues facing themselves and their families (compared to 60 per cent of Conservative Brexiteers).
Only 66 per cent of Labour voters who backed Leave in 2016 say they would do so again in a second referendum, the report finds. Some 16 per cent say they’d now vote Remain, while 13 per cent say they don’t know.
All of this suggests that Labour Leavers are less committed to leaving the EU than Brexiteers in other parties — and therefore less likely to desert Labour if it adopts a pro-Remain stance.
Yossarian wrote:Because I don’t know the answer. Not sure how much it matters either, it’s not like results of Lab/Con marginals couldn’t be affected by remainers switching to the Lib Dems.
Yossarian wrote:The absolute best that Labour can currently hope for is scraping in as the head of a minority government.
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