Probably the land surface area impact. Oceans hold more heat, but they are incredibly slow to raise temperature relative to land. Air temps at the ocean will probably vary more gradually too.

And yes, southern hemisphere has a greater proportion of oceans but the surface temperature sets could also include satellite and drifting buoy sensors as well. Ship based observations too.

The other big factor might be ENSO. El Nino and cold water upwelling off western South America is a variable influence but I think on average the equatorial ocean surface temps should be reaching maximum around July through September/October, so that probably means the global average maximum is not going to tend towards austral summer (Dec through Feb).

In short I reckon it's the landmasses fault.

Makes sense - thanks!

acemuzzy wrote:

Makes sense - thanks!

I'm worried about what el nino will cause in Australia. Last time we had an average to hot summer, half the country seemed to burn. Some studies have linked the smoke to the subsequent triple-dip La Nina by way of a mechanism I can't recall right now.

Anyway with three very wet years behind us, the amount of fuel loads must have fire emergency services incredibly concerned for what a hot, dry summer might bring.

Phoenix, Arizona, sounds fucked by climate change. Well, pretty much the planet is fucked, I know.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/14/phoenix-heatwave-summer-extreme-weather-arizona

The problem is, deep down, we kinda think we're indestuctable. We know the history of life on Earth but we don't think it can apply to us because we've invented smartphones (or digital watches as Douglas Adams put it).

We know it's happening but we pretend it'll be ok because we have to. People with kids should be shouting the loudest but we've got more to lose so we pretend harder. At the same time we've become spoiled and are not willing to make the sacrifice it'll take to sort it out. We can do it when the chips are down - just look at Ukraine, but we'd rather not. 

And to compound things further there's a sense of helplessness that any personal sacrifice is pointless because some other fucker will do it anyway, so we look towards politicians to make a stance they're never going to take because they wouldn't stay in power very long if they did, because deep down we're also selfish.

This can still be sorted, just about, but it won't be. Really, it's only just started to kick in and it's happening much faster than the models predicted. The scientists are as amazed as anyone but tbf they have been warning us for the better part of 50 years that we need to sort this shit out, and although they did say it's very hard to predict these things 5 degree bumps in record temps were never imagined. 

And the part of our brains we don't like to consult - the part that know it's happening, don't know how bad it is. But we'll know soon enough I guess.

From a purely selfish stance I was hoping the boy would be ok, or at least a 30yr old man when it got really bad. Seems deluded these days.

I think I'm going to join BHD and start believing in aliens and hope they can sort this out, although given their propensity for crashing maybe they're as dumb as us.

Tasmania. It's highly susceptible to bushfires, lots of old forests too that are starting to burn more frequently.

Does it even cover it?

Also I read that Tasmania once had some regular trade with California in the 1800s and it might have been the reason eucalyptus trees are now an invasive species there.

In Tasmanias defence we have the single best scented wood on the planet: Huon pine

And bonus points for being the least racist bit I visited.

I can't remember but she was Jane Hall until she got married. Had two sons, Stephen and Simon but Simon died a few years ago.

Hall is a common name here. Had a teacher by that name but obviously doesn't confirm anything. That said, my wife and I moved 3000km away and I worked with someone my wife went to school with.

Adriatic mid august?  Will it still be there?