The British Politics Thread - The Bear and Badger

LivDiv

I hate that sort of thing.
If you cant even put the party colours on your pamphlets should be running as an Independent.

LivDiv

monkey wrote:

LivDiv wrote:

Back to this week. I think Sunak is out if Andy Street doesn't win. Tory vanity contest for weeks and whoever comes in wont want a GE until Jan. If its a psycho like Bandersnatch they'll gain some Reform votes back, I don't think Reform will roll out the red carpet though.

No idea what they'll do but it would be hilarious if Andy Street winning keeps Sunak in a job because he's been doing everything possible, save from quitting the party, to claim he isn't a Tory and has nothing to do with the Westminster Tories and he's his own man yadda yadda. No Tory branding on any of his campaign material.

Rev

LivDiv wrote:

I hate that sort of thing. If you cant even put the party colours on your pamphlets should be running as an Independent.

The Tories continue to skirt along breaking election laws in their leafleting to collecting marketing information by fraudulent means, and I think if you don't put on your party colours that's equivalent to lying. The electoral commission do nothing about it.
Up here there was a party that for all intents and purposes pretended to be the green party, divided the votes in some areas and caused the greens to lose potential seats. The EC considered the blatant lying to not have been unlawful though it was absolutely clear what the intention was.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/electoral-deceit-ballot-paper-confusion-may-have-cost-us-seats-fume-scottish-greens-3231611

Rev

The big thing before the election is to make sure as many people have valid ID so they can vote. Kahn was claiming up to 900k won't be able to vote due to not having the right ID.

RedDave2

monkey wrote:

Funkstain wrote:

The simple fact remains that we seem forever cursed with 30% always-voting cunts

Yep but half of them seem to have lost their minds. Boomers that have been radicalised by Facebook or something. Politics changes and in a few years people will be talking about different stuff. But it seems very hard to get together over 40% of the electorate on a platform that is severe enough to foreigners for the racists to vote for, while not putting off the soft centre-rights and swingers. The nod and a wink, dog whistle Tory racism of the past doesn't cut it at the moment.

Don't in general people swing a bit more conservative as they get older? Not saying that expains everything but I thought that was a thing.

LivDiv

Just had a campaign leaflet from a indie candidate put in my letter box, or at least it wasn't there when I checked at lunch.

That's against the rules right?
Not to mention counter productive, I'd already voted as would many others.

monkey

RedDave2 wrote:

monkey wrote:

Funkstain wrote:

The simple fact remains that we seem forever cursed with 30% always-voting cunts

Yep but half of them seem to have lost their minds. Boomers that have been radicalised by Facebook or something. Politics changes and in a few years people will be talking about different stuff. But it seems very hard to get together over 40% of the electorate on a platform that is severe enough to foreigners for the racists to vote for, while not putting off the soft centre-rights and swingers. The nod and a wink, dog whistle Tory racism of the past doesn't cut it at the moment.

Don't in general people swing a bit more conservative as they get older? Not saying that expains everything but I thought that was a thing.

It's thought to be a thing. But it's not happening at the moment. I think ages of 40 and over is where the pollsters have always found the numbers of Tory voters start going up. But that's also thought to tie into home ownership and mortgages i.e. you want the 'good with money' party to not rock the boat too much. But fewer over 40s can afford mortgages and those that can, have lived through Brexit, Liz Truss and other Tory-generated disasters.

I've said it before, but this particular period of Tory chaos is, imo, going to be something the Tories have to carry around with them for decades (if they still exist). The way that Labour still gets hammered because of the 1970s.

I think the way back for them is a new party. Write off the old Tory brand, new shiny centre-right party that didn't Brexit the country into the ground.

Gremill

Voted in the NE regional mayor and police commissioner biz. Voted Labour as the least worst of 3 options for PCC. Voted for Jamie Driscoll for NE Mayor - he's an independent and was deselected by Labour for being too left wing.

b0r1s

LivDiv wrote:

Back to this week. I think Sunak is out if Andy Street doesn't win.
Tory vanity contest for weeks and whoever comes in wont want a GE until Jan.
If its a psycho like Bandersnatch they'll gain some Reform votes back, I don't think Reform will roll out the red carpet though.

Well I’ve voted against Street so here’s hoping.

LivDiv

Hahaha, what a prick
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/02/minister-sorry-as-veterans-find-id-card-not-valid-for-english-elections

Edit: not sure why it has that summary.
Boris Johnson forgot to bring his ID to vote despite being PM when the law passed.

Diluted Dante

Boris Johnson was turned away from a polling station because he didn't have photo ID.

acemuzzy

Yep just reading that. His own fucking daft law. Amazing stuff.

LivDiv

Imagine the satisfaction of turning him away despite knowing exactly who he is.
Warms the cockles.

Wookienopants

"I know you SAY you're Boris Johnson but you look like any old Etonian cunt to me"

regmcfly

There has to be one good news story

monkey

The only Tory I wouldn't mind seeing win is Susan Hall because that would be hilarious.

acemuzzy

Looks like a pretty bad night for the Tories then, the Lib Dems are nearly ahead of them in current standings, and they're a LONG way off Labour. Was this expected though? I don't really know how it compares to polls etc.

LivDiv

Hard to say really. Takes a long time to count for locals, it's less urgent than GE. Depends on what has been counted and declared.

Blackpool South is a good win but somewhat predictable.

LivDiv

Reform a hair's width away from overtaking Con in Blackpool.
Con 17.51%
Ref 16.88%

b0r1s

Labour win the GE, new-Cons become more and more like Reform, unless Labour do something amazing with the economy (fiscal rules plus imaginary "growth" leads me to believe not) then we get an even more RW government in 5 years. Enough time to plan my emigration?

LivDiv

I think it's more likely the Right finally have a divided voter base, the Tories have never really had to fight against another properly right wing party before. UKIP stepped back in 2015 on the promise of the referendum and again in 2019. Iirc they actually fought in 2010 and 2017 (under different name maybe?) and on both occasions the Tories couldn't form a government alone.

I don't think the Tories aping Reform is going to hoover up Reform votes without losing even more of their own and some will stay with Reform anyway. It's easy to just add Tory and Reform vote share together and get 30%+ but I don't think it's that simple. It's a bit like idly adding Lib Dem to Starmer's Labour or Green to Corbyn's, doesn't quite work like that.

b0r1s

I was only just awake and didn't explain that well.

The Tory success on the back of 2019 was predominantly still a Brexit vote, with a percentage wanting immigration to be tackled (you could say your red wall). There would also be a percentage of people who believed the bullshit around the NHS getting more funding and something about sovereignty. But I'd say the bigger part of the vote was about immigration. They have seen, since then, immigration figures only going in one direction and they neither understand or like it. They have wanted to believe the tough talk rhetoric, but even they have given up Sunak trying to literally keep the sea at bay. So, I'd say for a combination of Sunak being an ineffectual twat on the subject, and possibly they're also just rampant racists, they then jump to Reform, because they can't even vote Labour.

Some of that Reform voting will definitely be giving a bloody nose to the one nation Tory lot. So, we are now left with a Labour government in power who are not far off your Cameron-crowd and what do the Conservatives do? I don't believe the centre right (right) will hold and people like Gove and Badenoch will come to the fore even more, possibly Braverman at the helm, though I don't think the Tory members will give a brown person a go, it's just not how they think. God, could we even end up with Truss? Anyway, regardless, the new opposition party will now look at even more divisive rhetoric to take the wind out of Reforms sails and win back that far right side of their base.

But hold that thought, and I'll let you know more in 5 years time.

LivDiv

Its hard to say one way or the other I suppose.

There are external factors as well. Things like AI and Climate Change are accelerating in a way that will make 2030 look very different to 2025, even as a comparison to how different 2019 looked to now.

Politically the world is definitely closer to more war, however you want to frame that.
America has a huge impact on the UK and win or lose Trump is going to be an issue over there.
Putin is a problem, he will continue to be so.

Rev

I am of course continually surprised why English people vote for parties who want to make their lives worse.

Rev

My only hope for this country is watching the Tories slide so far to the right that they are a laughing stock. Reform might win one or two seats at the election but Labour need to go full on attack on them and what they are actually trying to bring to the table.

LivDiv

My hope is that the Tories become so decimated that they are the opposition in all but name.
Potentially a larger opposition being made up of Green, SNP and the internal left of Labour. Maybe even Lib Dem depending on issues, e.g moving closer to the EU.

LivDiv

Tories have won Tees Valley.
Labour have conceded.
51%-43% at current count.

The gap was closed significantly though and according to Sky News when translated to parliamentary seats would see them all go to Labour in that area.

Expect this to be the BIG story. Full success for Sunak. Will of the people.

b0r1s

Kuennsberg will love that. The memes of her looking like she’s swallowed a wasp, from last nights coverage, are golden.

MyNameIsKrisG

God. Can you imagine how well Labour would be doing if they had a good leader?

acemuzzy

LivDiv wrote:

Tories have won Tees Valley.
Labour have conceded.
51%-43% at current count.

The gap was closed significantly though and according to Sky News when translated to parliamentary seats would see them all go to Labour in that area.

How does that translation work??

Howdy, Stranger!

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